Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hey all - - sorry we have to be back here so soon. Props to the redesign on the board, and the early analysis that will help all of us get through another season.
This is entirely too early - - - just got roof re done, and the stump grinder can't get me into his schedule until the last week of June. Sent my check back to FEMA, and paid the increased premium for my homeowners insurance.
Ok - - Do any of the learned metes on the board really think this thing will make it across the mountains of CA and really be anything other than a Low pressure system by the weekend??
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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you know with this new storm taking the path it is taking, im not gonna be surprised by anything this year...i look at it this way if this is going to happen, what else can happen?...have a great day and stay safe everyone...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I believe that some remnant of it will make it across into the Caribbean, and it might even perk back up a bit in those warm waters...but there is a LOT of shear the further north you go, and the prevalent steering current should keep it south of Florida (with the exception of the Keys maybe getting a feeder band or 2), so I am not that concerned about a Florida threat at this point.
However, this ain't supposed to be happening anyway, so we'll have to watch it just in case.
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Jason Kelley
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Just watched the local forecast here,and south florida is just outside the "cone" for Sunday and Monday.Overall people here are already getting prepared for the upcoming season.So many people I have spoken with expect a major one here.We dodged several bullets last season,and with another busy season coming,alot of people here think our luck has run out.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It looks like Adrian has acquired an eye.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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thx wxman - - maybe I'll get my stumps ground yet
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
It looks like Adrian has acquired an eye.
Don't think it's an eye yet, but it's starting to look 'pretty' I wouldn't be suprised to see the wind speeds bumped up to 60Kts at the next advisory. And to think I was holding out hope that the disruption that had occured this morning would slow down development enough to keep it a minimal hurricane. because once it gets organized, there really isn't anything that'll stop it from doing some rapid intensification...
I hope the people in central america are taking precautions...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Looks to me like an eye is forming.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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if you check out the water vapor loop...you can see there is as yet no eye...but i wouldn't discount this possibility after she strengthens further...
it wouldn't surprise me to see this become at least a CAT I or maybe even a weak CAT II when she landfalls, and at this point, i'm gonna give it a 75-25 chance that this DOES eventually become in the Atlantic Basin...provided she emerges from CA as a TD or less...otherwise, if she can keep TS status or greater, she may remain adrian and not be considered as an atlantic storm at all (go figure)...
gotta love the eh? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hey Phil - - what is your opinion about the prevailing shear in the Gulf and near bahamas - - will it continue to be strong enough to make this a fish spinner after Cuba???
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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If Adrian makes it through the moutains and continues on the projected path it will be in the Atlantic by the 23rd. What are your thoughts as to where it will go from there? I know it is very early, but do you think it will continue to the east or could it possibly change directions?
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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They just put the winds up 60.She is gaining strength.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Adrian looks to be in the process of developing at least a ragged eye-like feature, particularly evident on the visible satellite imagery over the past couple of hours. It's not there on IR or WV yet due to some high cirrus enhancing moisture & resulting on some cold cloud tops. Winds as of 2p have been bumped to 60mph, and the storm is well on its way to hurricane status. Look for TS warnings and hurricane watches to go up at 5pm, with hurricane warnings soon to follow. SSTs begin to drop off slightly here, remain between 29-30 C until landfall, but the biggest decrease is felt below the surface, where the depth of the warm water isn't as great to the east. With Adrian, however, it should be moving fast enough to keep this from being an inhibiting factor. The only inhibiting factor for decent intensification from here on out is dry air entrainment, this morning's minor hiccup not withstanding. A 75-90kt hurricane, as mentioned previously, is looking likely at landfall, though rainfall is still going to be the primary impact of the storm.
The system has begun to accelerate to the north and east in response to the digging trough over Mexico and the increased vertical development of the storm. At this clip, the storm should make landfall along the eastern El Salvador coast in about 2 days, give or take. From there, continued acceleration towards the north and east is likely. The storm won't be nearly as strong as Mitch (98), but nor will it feel the negative effects of land nearly as long either, meaning it probably has about the same chance of redevelopment in the Caribbean. Wherever the storm goes in our basin, shear is going to be pretty high on the north side of the storm, inhibiting any redevelopment. It is not out of the realm of possibility, however, to see a weak TS reform in the NW Caribbean, as the models may underdo the environmental modification of the ridge by the outflow from Adrian. A continued NE movement, perhaps more slowly than before initial landfall, is the most likely bet for whatever is left of the storm. There is good agreement amongst the models on this, but trying to use them to call for redevelopment is a fool's errand, as they hardly capture the storm as it is. , IMO, is too intense on the storm by landfall and too intense with development, to boot.
Still one to watch, but hopefully those in central America are prepared for what's to come. It's not going to be pretty.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HF (work)
Unregistered
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Banding eye. Just great. Looks like El Salvador is going to get a hurricane hit, and it may be more than just marginal. I've got a hunch it's going to be a strong 2 or 3 when it landfalls tomorrow night.
HF 1924z18may
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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the NWHHC Update (North Western Hemisphere Hurricane Center) is calling this a hurricane.
Note: The NWHHC is independent, this is not official, for more info see their About page and Disclaimer
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ncmike
Unregistered
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Amazing. I'm afraid the flooding from Adrian is going to be devastating to this region. I hope they are able to get the warnings and message out to the public in order to protect them from what is sure to be massive rainfall, mudslides and flooding. Starting the season off with loss of life in May is not a good sign of what is yet to come this Hurricane season.
Thanks for the link.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Interesting to note: the storm thus far has moved further to the east than the and models have called for thus far, rather than moving NE. Flow to the north of the storm is more zonal than expected, suggesting the trough hasn't amplified the flow to the point of being able to draw the storm towards the north. It should begin to gain latitude, but I'm not convinced that the storm comes in as far north as the models and the brings it as of yet.
Flow onto the W. coast of the U.S. is being shunted north and south in a diffluent pattern over the Rockies, helping to push the storm towards the east, but it's not doing a lot to amplify the flow pattern over the region. The trough off of the east coast of the U.S. is taking its time in building southward as well, meaning there is less of an influence upon the storm to go poleward. In fact, over the past day or so, the flow has become less amplified across the western Caribbean, and there doesn't appear to be a lot in the flow pattern to change things, either, meaning either a shortwave trough is going to come out of the woodwork and push the storm north...or it's not going to go north. Good for us, bad for the central Caribbean.
Those in Nicaragua need to watch this storm, for if things hold, Adrian may make in impact in eastern El Salvador and northern Nicaragua moreso than western El Salvador. I hinted at this in my previous update, but feel a bit more confident about it now. An eventual track along the Honduran/Nicaraguan border into the NW Caribbean is possible, keeping the storm over land a bit longer but perhaps avoiding some of the taller mountain peaks. From there, whatever is left of the storm may begin to travel a bit further north, as the predominant low-level flow is directed that way, but keeping the Caymans, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola under the gun for something.
Will be watching this for some time to come, but need to get back to work.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
Amazing. I'm afraid the flooding from Adrian is going to be devastating to this region. I hope they are able to get the warnings and message out to the public in order to protect them from what is sure to be massive rainfall, mudslides and flooding. Starting the season off with loss of life in May is not a good sign of what is yet to come this Hurricane season.
Thanks for the link.
I believe we had a devastating May storm last year too...
Anyway, the is become much more ragged, and an eye is developing. A dry air intrusion from the northwest stunted some development; it was probably due to the excellent outflow boundary just east of the dry air intrusion. Nonetheless the feature is maturing both on the surface and in the upper atmosphere. Also to note, this picture shows two cloud depressions in the .
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/epac_trop/vis/epac_trop_vs.jpg
I expect some temporary weakening for the next 6 hours, and then intensity will increase to a strong CAT 1, and landfall on the el salavador coast...Hopefully this one won't stall over the moutains...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Wed May 18 2005 05:29 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> I believe we had a devastating May storm last year too...
yes we did...there was an unnamed and in fact uninvestigated may storm which devastated haiti, killing at least 3,000. if you feel like it, you may want to go back into the 2004 archives, towards the end of May, and see what we all had to say about it...
i really believe the dropped the ball on that storm, as it was clearly AT LEAST a tropical depression, if not alex...
it will be interesting to see if your weakening hypothesis holds up, as i'm of the mind that this might achieve hurricane status at the next update...but we shall see...either way, she's still holding strong at 60+ winds, so she's clearly not a hurricane yet...
and it's el salvador..san salvador is the capital but nice analysis keith
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Derek Sutherland
Unregistered
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Is there any time frame in which this shear in the carribean is set to start to dissapate? 
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