hurricaneds
Unregistered
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The Ir satellite shows a round but very compact storm. With a eye maybe no more then 8 miles across. I'm scared that we are looking at another .
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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000
URNT11 KNHC 191310
97779 13084 50257 88000 76200 28020 75//1 /5750
RMK AF302 0101E ADRIAN OB 02
AF 302
been a while but i think aircraft was at 25.7, 88.0 and heading towards the storm.... at 28ft?
i think danielw could uncode better 
umm heres another one....i just got
URPN11 KNHC 191628
97779 16254 51136 91808 15200 03023 16158 /2501
40420
RMK AF302 0101E ADRIAN OB 11
time 1625gmt
at 4900 ft now?
Dropsonde Observations 04 adrian
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu May 19 2005 01:13 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE
CARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Does not look like anything we have to worry about.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It's like a premature birth; too early for the climatic conditions to be favorable.
We have the real season to worry about; all in due time.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Is there a site where I can check the current status of the bermuda high?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ftlaudbob: any page with weather maps that cover the region or upper air charts... or model runs to prog it out for the next few weeks. you pretty much just look for it. i can tell you that right now it essentially isn't there.. deep layer westerly flow over much of the atlantic basin is anomalously far to the south (thus we have a pacific storm coming backwards toward central america).
everybody: nowhere near as gung-ho as earlier. javlin correctly surmised yesterday evening that the n-s elongation of the system meant that adrian was finally going to take a more poleward path; and it has. the storm looks lined to landfall closer to the guatemala/el salvador border now... or at least northern el salvador. the small has an intermittent eye feature.. the storm may be a bit stronger than the official statements say... but it has hardly strengthened since yesterday morning. it's in a mild-moderate shear environment now, and probably won't strengthen much more. so much for the cat 2/3 ideas. minimal 1 maaaaybe. it's survival is also iffier, because the storm is very small and going to landfall in a sheared environment. i don't expect it to survive crossing land anymore. there are still minor concerns with a center redeveloping to the se lower in the caribbean or a festering system north of the islands getting a brief window as the subtropical jet wends about. but tropical activity will more then likely end for the near future when/if adrian loses its identity tonight. they just bumped the winds up a notch in the intermittent advisory. maybe there will be a slight forced strengthening as the storm hits parallel to the coast (an effect bastardi used to point out). and just maybe recon will find slightly stronger winds. but it looks like adrian will be mercifully weak compared to what was being viewed as possible just yesterday.
HF 1606z19may
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu May 19 2005 11:14 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I have to agree on that one HF with the system now probably going to exit on the other side at about 16'N to close for comfort to the shear monger.The jet is maybe 200 miles -240 miles to the N.If Adrian may of stayed on a little more S course redelvelopment would of been a possiblility.I give it 20-25% now on the other side for development if that another dead goose.Shoot it's waling into it head on
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-1.html
Edited by javlin (Thu May 19 2005 11:41 AM)
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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I have been planning to spend the summer with you guys, but I didn't expect check in time would be the middle of May! Just glad you're always there when things start spinning. I've been keeping my eye on this little dandy, especially since my roof is still blue and our poor little town is beginning to have moments of normalcy.
Prayers for everyone's safety this season.
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Now a Cat 1 hurricane---confirmed by recon. Just announced.
MM
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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The first hurricane in EPAC is Adrian. C.A. is getting a lot of rain. I just hope and pray that people were warned and evacuated.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
ftlaudbob: any page with weather maps that cover the region or upper air charts... or model runs to prog it out for the next few weeks. you pretty much just look for it. i can tell you that right now it essentially isn't there.. deep layer westerly flow over much of the atlantic basin is anomalously far to the south (thus we have a pacific storm coming backwards toward central america).
everybody: nowhere near as gung-ho as earlier. javlin correctly surmised yesterday evening that the n-s elongation of the system meant that adrian was finally going to take a more poleward path; and it has. the storm looks lined to landfall closer to the guatemala/el salvador border now... or at least northern el salvador. the small has an intermittent eye feature.. the storm may be a bit stronger than the official statements say... but it has hardly strengthened since yesterday morning. it's in a mild-moderate shear environment now, and probably won't strengthen much more. so much for the cat 2/3 ideas. minimal 1 maaaaybe. it's survival is also iffier, because the storm is very small and going to landfall in a sheared environment. i don't expect it to survive crossing land anymore. there are still minor concerns with a center redeveloping to the se lower in the caribbean or a festering system north of the islands getting a brief window as the subtropical jet wends about. but tropical activity will more then likely end for the near future when/if adrian loses its identity tonight. they just bumped the winds up a notch in the intermittent advisory. maybe there will be a slight forced strengthening as the storm hits parallel to the coast (an effect bastardi used to point out). and just maybe recon will find slightly stronger winds. but it looks like adrian will be mercifully weak compared to what was being viewed as possible just yesterday.
HF 1606z19may
Sure whole lot of maybe's when the hurricane is 6 hours till' landfall... Anyway, a 500 mb ridge is lifting to the north of the storm, allowing it to push more north then forecasted. This combined with the shortwave energy diving into the gulf will spell SHEAR for the remnants of Adrian, once in the Atlantic. The enviorinment has now become unfavorable for decent strengthenening, there could be though a increase in 10 15 kts before landfall with the sun at it's maximum, and the landfalling effect that HF pointed out. In other terms, the storm is past it's prime, and there is a very minute chance the remnants of Adrian will regenerate once in the Atlantic...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thats because i'm concerned with more than the next six hours, keith. i'm still not buying the official that the 'remnants' will keep on booking ene. they'll go generally that way, just not quite so fast. adrian may decouple from its convection partially, and drift more to the east. provided it didn't do this over land that would give it a higher chance of regeneration, clinging to the periphery of the subtropical jet and not being completely sheared out. the upper trough is still digging to the west, so in a sense it is also enhancing adrian's outflow.
as for the intensity: i thought the intensity was a little low and recon confirmed it (didn't think the central pressure was that low though). so as far as the maybe's i had earlier, they've grown if anything. adrian is keeping inside that range of intensity that doesn't allow the forecast to be straightforward. the safest bet is that it doesn't regenerate, but i don't think it's quite that clear cut. that's just going with analogous climo, and the shear conditions (which don't always have the same effect on NE-ward moving systems).
HF 2008z19may
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu May 19 2005 03:14 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
thats because i'm concerned with more than the next six hours, keith. i'm still not buying the official that the 'remnants' will keep on booking ene. they'll go generally that way, just not quite so fast. partially because adrian may decouple from its convection partially, and drift more to the east. provided it didn't do this over land that would give it a higher chance of regeneration, clinging to the periphery of the subtropical jet and not being completely sheared out. i thought the intensity was a little low and recon confirmed it (didn't think the central pressure was that low though). so as far as the maybe's i had earlier, they've grown if anything. adrian is keeping inside that range of intensity that doesn't allow the forecast to be straightforward. the safest bet is that it doesn't regenerate, but i don't think it's quite that clear cut. it's just going with analogous climo, and the shear conditions (which don't always have the same effect on NE-ward moving systems).
HF 2008z19may
what do you suppose will happen if the storm happens to miracoulsy avoid the shear? The most important hours of a storm are the hours of landfall...and we're already on to bigger and better things. I just feel doing that will have a total disregard for what will happen in CA...that's all.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Adrian is still pretty much holding his own, and it wouldn't surprise me if he strengthens by a few knots before landfall...even with the watches and warnings posted for el salvador & guatemala, this is gonna be a tremendous rainmaker, especially as he makes his trek across the mountains...i fear (although on a smaller scale) death and destruction similar to that seen during the may unnamed storm and jeanne in haiti...mudslides and mud huts don't mix well...
as far as "regeneration" once he crosses the ca mountains, i think right now its a crap shoot....i will say this, though, adrian probably emerges on the other side as a TD, and if he should gain enough strength to reach TS status, it's a fair bet the will call this ...i'm certainly not willing to say this will happen, but we cannot discount this as a possibility, at least not yet...
keith and HanKFranK both bring forth excellent points...either way, we have a minimal hurricane about to strike the central american coast and he may, if current and predicted movement remains, take the path of least resistance, milage wise, to our basin...
welcome to hurricane season 2005...looks like ima come up with a new season slogan for this year...tsfh is over and we could have an early start to 2005
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it isn't going to avoid the shear. it might deal with it better than forecast. central america is going to get rained on and the coastal areas of el salvador will get high winds. you can read all that in the official forecast, so i didn't think it bore repeating. my interest is in potential scenarios of the storm's crossing. none of my thoughts are far removed from yours in this sense; i think it has a slim chance of survival (earlier today without the recon i saw almost none, but it turns out they had adrian underrated, and i was going on less information). you need to read what i say and form your criticisms a little better than that, keith, if they're to have any merit. i have only one request; that you stop quoting my entire comment in yours. if people want to read what i said, they can scroll up a little and see the exact same text--it's redundant clutter.
HF 2045z19may
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I don't think this is the worst looking hurricane I've ever seen, but it's not a very happy system. The biggest factor against any regeneration is the size of the system. Smaller systems as we know tend to be more fragile, subject to rapid intensification, and also very easily disrupted given moderately negative conditions. The storm just isn't big enough to generate it's own weather really.
Mind you, Adrian will still be a reasonable low pressure when it makes it across central america, and it also appears to be travelling with the upper airflow. Which might be good, or it might encourage a transition to a non tropical cyclone once the storm center gets disrupted by the mountains and land.
Just musing, and remember I know nothing
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Adrian finally felt the impact of the trough and has started to take go more poleward (the previous N-S elongation comment was spot on). El Salvador still looks like a good bet for landfall; exactly where is not the key, however, it's areas to the east of the storm. There appears to be a bit too much shear in the region for much more strengthening, but the current appearance of the storm looks to be a bit like Hurricane Earl in 1998 (Atlantic basin). The trailing convective bands developing to the east of the storm hints at massive rainfall totals to come; it may also hint at a very early start to the transition process, but I'm not buying that yet.
As for redevelopment in the Atlantic...we will see. Landfall in Cent. Amer. is likely about 18-24hr from now, with passage from there into the Caribbean as, well, something. How much of something remains to be determined. If it survives the journey relatively intact, it'll likely weaken from there on out (if not become ); if it doesn't, the remnants may just stick around for awhile under weak low-level flow. Like HF mentioned, the possibility for it to deviate from the projected course or become decoupled from the mid-level circulation is there...though also as he mentioned, safest bet is to stick with the forecast.
Rainfall, as noted last night and afternoon, is the biggest concern with this storm. Landfall in about 18hr with an intensity of 75kt or so at its peak somewhere along the El Salvador coast is the likely evolution over the next day or so. From there on out...we'll see.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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My critisms aren't affecting you?  I'm not trying to critize, nor am I trying to be witty, and yes I will take your request of not quoting into consideration next time (and this) I'm responding.
you'd be wise to take it more than just into consideration
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by LI Phil (Thu May 19 2005 04:53 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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596
WTPZ31 KNHC 192043
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE
EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO
BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...12.9 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
This is pretty self-explanatory.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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In the latest sat loops she is becoming elongated.
Jeff, Adrian is a HE.
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cheers
Edited by LI Phil (Thu May 19 2005 08:46 PM)
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