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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
      #35599 - Tue May 17 2005 08:27 PM

The East Pacific Basin's season began on May 15th, and they've got their first system on the third day. EastPac systems usually aren't covered on the main page, but this one is highly unusual in that it is forecast to enter the Atlantic basin... something that rarely occurs. The name will be Adrian when/if it gets to tropical storm strength, which looks very likely at this point. There is little climatology on such systems; tropical storms have occasionally wandered over to the coast near Guatemala; no hurricane has hit below the Mexican state of Chiapas, though. If this does happen it will be the first on record to do so.
Dependent on how strong it can get before crossing Central America, this system has the potential to be the first named storm on the Atlantic side as well. It is forecast to reach land late on Thursday, and be into the Caribbean by late Friday. The last named May system Atlantic side was Arlene in 1981, so it's been quite a few years since such an event. Watch this one; you may never see one like it again.

UPDATE: As of 11PM EDT (almost two hours ago, this is old info), TD 1E was upgraded to Adrian. The official forecast is essentially the same, with the track shifted ever-so-slightly to the right. They're still playing the storm conservatively, calling for a borderline TS/hurricane. A more clear and present danger is the flood threat, as Adrian is going cross some highlands and orographic effects will work to deluge some areas. Read Clark's post below for further explanation of that contingency. This storm is by its very nature already remarkable, and it has the potential to do plenty more.

-HF 0601Z 18May

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed May 18 2005 01:02 AM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: HanKFranK]
      #35604 - Tue May 17 2005 08:47 PM

history before our eyes. This is indeed rare. Now we have to see if it make it through intact, we will have to see.

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35606 - Tue May 17 2005 08:53 PM

Hank, didn't you just say that it would not be classified as Arlene? Or will it stay Adrian and still be considered the first storm of the Atlantic season? If so, then why are you discounting it?

--------------------
cheers


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35607 - Tue May 17 2005 08:55 PM

Before I was iffy about saying it was going to make it across CA, but checking some top maps I noticed the highest mountain was 8,000 ft tall. That's not that bad, and the system looks pretty large, so there's a very good possibility this things passes over only partially damaged.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: Lysis]
      #35608 - Tue May 17 2005 08:58 PM

Jeffie,

HF has his own way of doing things...and in some ways i think his ways are better than NHC...however, we play by their rules here...if adrian forms in the epac, crosses ca, and "reforms" as a TS in the atl., it WILL be called Arlene and it WILL count as our first named storm...that's how the NHC does things...personally i agree that those rare storms which jump basins shouldn't even be counted when they reach the other side...i also disagreed vehemently last year with the NHC KEEPING Ivan as Ivan (yes, it was still the same 'system') but in my mind it clearly should have been given a different name...especially after the death and destruction the original Ivan caused...

but facts are facts...adrian would become Arlene and each basin would have it's first named storm if everything we've deen discussing comes to fruition...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: LI Phil]
      #35610 - Tue May 17 2005 09:04 PM

Not that this bears significance in the light of an obviously important meteorlogical event, Hank just said:
by the way, if it survives (and the NHC doesn't decide that it has 'reformed') the trek across central america it will still be called adrian.. the NHC changed their convention on that a couple years ago (about the same time they changed the naming convention for subtropical systems).



Now he contradicts himself? What is going on?

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue May 17 2005 09:04 PM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: Lysis]
      #35612 - Tue May 17 2005 09:07 PM

currently im listening to talkin' tropics and they have Jamie Rhome (Forecast Analyist from the TPC/ Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch) live interview. he said if it keeps a disernable center it will keep the pacific name, but if it falls totally apart
it will get a Atlantic name. Now the question is what would you call disernable?


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35613 - Tue May 17 2005 09:08 PM

Ok I get it. I suppose it will be like Ivan and all depend on what mood the NHC is in, or some kind of PR crap. Thanks, man. Sorry about that everyone.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue May 17 2005 09:09 PM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35614 - Tue May 17 2005 09:09 PM

there is alway the fine boarder line that has to be crossed or stayed away from

Edited by hurricane_run (Tue May 17 2005 09:10 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: Lysis]
      #35615 - Tue May 17 2005 09:11 PM

>>>(and the NHC doesn't decide that it has 'reformed')

that's the kicker...NHC gets to make the call on whether it has "reformed"...there's a LOT more at stake here for a LOT of different parties involved on whether or not NHC decides whether this will be renamed...

like with Ivan last year...

it's more politics than common sense and that's why everyone is so po'ed at NHC...they didn't classify the May system last year that killed 3,000+ in Haiti when it was AT LEAST a TD, if not a ts...

but we're getting WAY ahead of ourselves here...lets see if this thing even becomes Adrian before we start counting the minutes to our first named storm in the atlantic...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35616 - Tue May 17 2005 09:12 PM

Well, for consistency’s sake I think you need to keep the same name within basins... like bonnie last year, who weakened and quickly reformed. Sheesh... this is why I became disenfranchised with politics. "Who could be biased about the weather" I thought.

--------------------
cheers


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: Lysis]
      #35618 - Tue May 17 2005 09:18 PM

but then if a situation like Ivan last year it needs a totally different name. once the system is dissapated it is gone. if something spaws from the remnats.the new storm needs a new name.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35620 - Tue May 17 2005 09:38 PM

I am just anxious to see how it all plays out in the next few days. Looking forward to seeing some maps....Skeetobite?

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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path [Re: Katie]
      #35621 - Tue May 17 2005 09:43 PM

It is odd, last season started with an anomaly and looks like this season is too. I would guess (hope) that this storm will not survive the mountains it will pass over. It is going to travel over mountains, right?

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: EastPac Depression [Re: Katie]
      #35622 - Tue May 17 2005 09:44 PM

Combination visible/ infrared satellite shot link.
Notice the bright white dots in the southern and central areas of the convection. These dots depict the concentrated areas of lightning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/VIS/20.jpg


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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: Not lightning [Re: danielw]
      #35623 - Tue May 17 2005 09:53 PM

Sorry Daniel-

that is light (not lightning) catching the higher clouds tops from the low, setting sun...see the ecliptic line just to the west of the system....the system is now in the infrared picture zone (night), the extra light energy is causing a 'flare' in the infrared spectrum (overload of light energy/heat)....there may be lightning there, but, that is NOT what you are seeing...

MM


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: EastPac Depression [Re: danielw]
      #35624 - Tue May 17 2005 09:56 PM

Interestingly enough...not a single "track map" i've yet seen develops the epac storm into a TS when it crosses into the atlantic basin

here's another tracking map for your viewing pleasure

and another

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: More Lightning [Re: LI Phil]
      #35626 - Tue May 17 2005 10:43 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
The area south of Hispanola, and a second area along 45degrees W longitude. From 19 to 25 degrees N latitude.
Well below the horizon of the sun at 0115Z.
**Added the last 3 links off the EPAC Tropical Storm Adrian Floater

Edited by danielw (Tue May 17 2005 11:06 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: EastPac Depression [Re: LI Phil]
      #35627 - Tue May 17 2005 10:51 PM

Phil -- that's because they are all using the NHC guidance to create those maps, which still only calls for a 30kt depression once it enters our basin.

At 11pm, TD-1E was upgraded to Adrian, the first named storm of the season. During the evening, the convective pattern near the center waned before developing into a small CDO-type feature. This bodes well for future organization. Given about another 18-24hr to organize, I do believe we'll have a hurricane on our hands. NHC's hands are tied because this is such a rare event that they can't call for something drastic; but, the ingredients are there to certainly support a hurricane. No matter the intensity, the primary concern is going to be rainfall, particularly on the south side of those mountains to the east of where the storm tracks. Probably not Mitch-type destruction, as the storm isn't as strong and is moving faster, but very substantial rainfall amounts will not be out of the question.

The GFDL has backed off on the extreme intensity prediction of 125kt before, down to 105kt. That is probably the upper bound of what we could see with this storm; time is not on its side for anything more. Something more along the lines of 75-90kt is more likely, again with landfall in 2-3 days. After that, it's still anyone's guess. How fast the system moves across land and what path it takes will go a long way to determining how well it survives into the Caribbean, what path it takes in our basin, and how much reintensification -- if any -- it may undergo. Still anyone's guess at this point, but those in the Caymans, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas need to watch this one...just in case.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: EastPac Depression [Re: LI Phil]
      #35628 - Tue May 17 2005 10:52 PM

Hopefully it stays south and east if it does come across. I am heading to the Keys for the week on Thur. Check out the new GFDL run.... here is the 96 hr forecast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=096hr

and here is 108 hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=114hr

by the way...if there are storms in my area this year (Brevard Co. Florida - Merritt Island) , don't forget to check out my web page...I installed a Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless weather station and the information is on my web page - the anemometer is screwed into the roof trusses so it isn't going anywhere....

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html

Edited by h2ocean (Tue May 17 2005 10:57 PM)


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