ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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(duplicate post removed. ED)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 25 2005 02:50 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well,It looked to me like there was some confusion about what system we are talking about.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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duplicate post
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005
...WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THE LOW AND TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THROUGH WED UNTIL THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ATLC.
ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE E PAC WITH LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL BE FAVORED OVER INTERIOR SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
SIMILARLY...ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS LESS WIDESPREAD BUT EXPECT INCREASING ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER JET OVER THE W ATLC STRENGTHENS PRODUCING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 70W...GETS PULLED NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Carriage returns added to the above for emphasis on each area of the discussion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505242312
You have the right ideas checking the Tropical Weather Products from / TPC first. I'm sure some of the Mets on the board can give actual numbers, but the tropical wave to tropical depression and higher categories ratio is probably close to 1 in 5 or 1 in 8 waves grows into something. That's a 12.5 to 20% chance that one will become a depression or higher. This time of year, ( Pre Hurricane Season ), I would think that there would be less than a 5% chance of a Tropical Wave becoming anyhting but a thunderstorm complex. However, We have seen an Eastward moving EPAC Hurricane in the last week, so all bets are off!
I'll see if I can find some links for the 'Earliest Tropical Depression' in the Atlantic.
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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In the latter part of the model, it has a couple of low pressure signatures in the gulf of mexico. Could this be a sign of a tropical system on the horizon. :?:
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Derek Sutherland
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Dr Gray has increased his numbers as anticipated.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html
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Bloodstar
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I did find it amusing in a very geeky way that they basicly said, (paraphrased) Yeah, the numbers point to an average year, but we think it's bunk so we're going to make our own estimates and call it really active.
I liked that attitude: understanding and recognizing when the previous model has broken down and making a new model, or going with a gut feeling.
(though it's more than a gut feeling as there is some climatological data to support the numbers)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
In the latter part of the model, it has a couple of low pressure signatures in the gulf of mexico. Could this be a sign of a tropical system on the horizon. :?:
(Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, so what I say is more my own personal thoughts and analysis, Don't rely upon me, because I don't know that I'm talking about!)
Don't see it happening, anything the projects I tend to take with a grain of salt anyway, and what lowpressures it is developing look to be a part of a frontal boundry of sorts. (if it were January or February, I'd say there'd be a shot at a southern snow storm).
Add into it the wind shear doesn't look like it's going to relax for a little while (unless I'm reading things wrong), so everything points to a no go for a ltittle while.
As it is, we're going to have a quiet start to the season, Don't worry, we're going to have plenty of action. Certainly Last year started slow, but oh boy did it make up for it.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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The only thing I really see is the , , & UKM models (this morning) trying to get something going in the mid atlantic area in about a week or so... nothing close to home just yet and I'm not too keen on this playing out.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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That's fine that its going to get off to a slow start, I don't want to get hit by three hurricanes again back to back. I still haven't made all the repairs needed, along with a lot of people. My neighboorhood got hit by one of those tornadoes in the eyewall as came over Orlando. My house was spared, but you can go talk to the concrete foundation across the street about their luck. 
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Derek Sutherland
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