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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4
      #35880 - Fri May 27 2005 07:35 AM

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html

My reaction to his update is. He ups the numbers primary due to the warm SST's in the tropical atlantic and the lack of el nino.So folks let's be prepared and hoping for the best.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35881 - Fri May 27 2005 08:05 AM

Looks like a very interesting summer coming up for us. I wonder who`s in for a spanking this year. Time will tell. Like Cy said " BE PREPARED "...Weatherchef

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35884 - Fri May 27 2005 02:41 PM

I guess we will know soon enough..so be prepared.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #35886 - Fri May 27 2005 08:04 PM

Animated SST comparison - May 26, 2004 to May 26, 2005



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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #35887 - Fri May 27 2005 10:31 PM

The following link will take you to a PDF file download of an analysis of the June 1st forecasts by Dr. Gray for each season compared to the actual observations for the entire season for each period since 1999. Note that this overview also includes the revised June 1, 2005 numbers, however, the revised 2005 forecast numbers are not included in the averages calculated for each category.

This file includes a variance report (from forecast) of the June 1st forecast numbers, several charts and the final two pages are the raw data.

Since our focus is the graphical dissemination of data, no effort was made to prepare a synopsis beyond our observation of the trend that Dr. Gray tends to be conservative in his forecasts.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/analysis/dr_gray.pdf


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #35888 - Fri May 27 2005 10:35 PM

Your animated SSI comparison is quite effective.

She heatin' up, that's for sure.

Whoa nelly!


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: Prospero]
      #35889 - Fri May 27 2005 10:39 PM

Ummm, I mean SST comparison.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: Prospero]
      #35893 - Sat May 28 2005 11:09 AM

He is good!!!!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #35896 - Sun May 29 2005 03:08 AM

Nice work Skeetobite.. have you considered doing some research/graphs of the time when they have hit? In other words, how many Cat 1 have hit Florida in June, Cat 2 in June, etc.. Cat 1 in July, Cat 2 in July, etc.. all the way thru the year?

New site showing probabilities of exposure in 2005:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/

I loved the mapping they have done and some of their links.. I could zoom right into a 20 mile path around my home and see every cain that had passed by my property over the last 100 years, the wind speed, even the flooding.

OT: BTW, has anyone seen Storm Stopper's panels?
http://storm-stoppers.com/

If so, thoughts?


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #35898 - Sun May 29 2005 08:52 AM

Quote:

Nice work Skeetobite.. have you considered doing some research/graphs of the time when they have hit? In other words, how many Cat 1 have hit Florida in June, Cat 2 in June, etc.. Cat 1 in July, Cat 2 in July, etc.. all the way thru the year?

If so, thoughts?




We are preparing a database driven analysis of the 275 known hurricanes to have impacted the united states between 1851 and 2004. This project is nearly complete and will include:

  • date info
  • storm name (if any) strength at landfall
  • U.S. State(s) affected and category for each state affected for each storm
  • maximum winds in kts and mph
  • minimum central pressure
  • a brief narrative
  • Storm track map


Obviously, once you have all the data, you can sort and crunch it any way you like. We will provide multiple sort and search options. Once this project is complete, it will be available on our website. I will post the link as soon as testing is done.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Dr Gray increases his numbers=15/8/4 [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #35909 - Sun May 29 2005 07:48 PM

Very interesting to see all of that when it gets out so I can't wait.

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