MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Today marks the first day of the 2005 Hurricane Season, and after last season in Florida we'd hope it would be a quiet one. The meteorologists at Colorado State University say it'll be an above average year with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. I personally think the number is a bit high, but we'll see. I tend to be optimistic about the season in general. This is the 10th hurricane season this site has been running during.
As we start off the year, there is nothing worthy of note in the tropics yet, but we'll keep an eye out.
Last year was an exception. Hurricane slammed into Punta Gorda was the storm that started the Florida series. Followed by , which hit near Stuart, which had Mobile, AL in its sights, veered slightly east saving Mobile the worst, but giving Pensacola a wallop, including much beach damage and knocking out the interstate 10 bridge.
Jeanne was the one that did the most damage to me personally, along the coast in New Smyrna Beach. Although not as strong as the others, the storm surge along the coast was higher than I've ever seen in New Smyrna basically destroying our beach there. We were lucky compared to Pensacola with , however.
There are plenty of hurricane specials on local media, and events going on at local malls this week. Feel free to reply and state them if you know of them. Preparation is key as usual, this next week or so taxes will be removed on supplies (see the prior news article for details).
Outside of Florida must watch out as well. It's been years since Florida has had a year even close to last year. But it only takes one major storm to ruin your area. Keep watch, don't panic. And we'll all be anxiously watching the tropics this year. Thanks for visiting the site. I hope to improve it a lot this year.
We are still looking for reasonable server collocation facilities for our servers. Our bandwidth has very unusual requirements in that only one or two months a year we tend to spike, and spike very very hard when hurricane events happen, while the rest is comparatively slow, if you have a recommendation or offer please send it to cfhc@flhurricane.com
Soon we'll be adding volunteer professional meteorologist blogs on site, in addition to what we have now with Snonut, from a few other partners that have been a great help to the site over the years. This should be up in the coming weeks. We've also added coordinate history for all of last year's storms. will likely be doing a few maps again when the time calls as well.
Be hurricane prepared! And always, always, if in any doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the internet, here or otherwise.
Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.
Edited by John C (Sat Jun 04 2005 08:12 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the "opening" salvo Mike...looking forward to another great year on .
I expect we'll see a number of the reg'lars making their first posts of the year today...so...in advance a "shout out" to those just checkin' in...I guess they will be letting Frank P. out of the WPP so in advance...Frank P. wat up?
i have seen the future of in the forthcoming "met blog" (new forum) Mike will be intro'ing in the near future...this will be a most excellent new feature, and there are others to come...just to whet everyone's whistle...
well...no action (thankfully) for a while, but we'll be right on top of it when anything does perk up...
after "The Season From Hell", i hope and pray this year will yield TS landfallers and CAT V fish spinners...
Welcome to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season...
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL
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im not a regular poster but ive been lurking for years and olny mad an account recently im ready for the year i love this part trcking the storms
---is ready for the 2005 season---
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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With the return of the , the season finally feels fully underway. It wasted no time in coming, huh?
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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The season started with a bang here in central Florida thats for sure. Plenty of thunder and rain . Tornado warning out as I post. Just wanted to wish all my Florida friends and members good luck this summer. Its going to be a busy summer for us , especially August and September. Be prepared and keep the faith...Weatherchef
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Greeting Phil and all the regulars...
Yep kicking off another hurricane season today, been reading all the interesting posts but just don't have the mo to get that excited.... yet.... my season starts in Aug so I'll just kinda hang back as see what happens till then... would not surprise me at all for things to be slow for a while, but you never know do ya... not going to get excited about every "blob" that shows up in the GOM.....
Much more prepared this year than last... got me a 5.5 KW generator and in the process of building me some real functional storm shutters... plywood is such a pain.. Agree with you Phil that a little TS would be fun to see but certainly don't want to wish a major on anyone... still feel that we in Biloxi dodged a bullet last year with ....
anyhoo, hopefully we won't have another "season from hell" as you so eloquently stated. Should be an interesting and exciting season if all the experts are correct..... sure hope the great state of Florida has a quite year but wouldn't bet on it ...
Frank P....
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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A while back I read that May and low rainfall averages might give an indication of how active our season will be. I don't know average rainfall amount vs. what we actually got. Including yesterday, I've counted 3 days of rain here for the month. Anyone know those amounts and can offer any insight? Was the thought that rainfall was one of the indicators of an El Nino or lack of it?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Fnnally the season is here wow how time has gone by since 2004 season ended.Let's hope for a safe season and all fishes but let's prepare for the worse and hope for the best because it only takes one system to change your life.I will be in the board to colaborate as always and have good discussions with the members and moderators about the season.
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Wed Jun 01 2005 12:42 PM)
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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
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Hi All, just wanted to intro myself, I have lurked on these boards for a while, but, have posted very few times. Please bear with me if I ask for info on acronyms that you guys use that I am unfamiliar with. I have started using the forecast models that I saw posted here for the past couple of years and am getting the hang of understanding some things on them.
Thanks again for the info you guys seem to be able to get out to those of us that want to learn, but, can't learn from the weather channel.
I hope everyone has a safe and exciting Season.
Jody
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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Greetings from the "Big Bend" area of North Florida. Just wanted to check-in and let you know how much I appreciated this site last year. Ya'll definitely helped keep me sane. While our area wasn't in the direct line of fire last year, we received our fair share of glancing blows, with high winds, severe flooding and tornado activity, my in-laws in the Orlando/ Kissimmee/ St. Cloud area were definitely under the gun. My mother-in-law's house is still in need of roof repair because of it. She's "on the list" and hopefully it'll be taken care of before the next one takes her whole house.
the profanity has been removed from your 'signature'. please refrain from using profanity on these boards. Thanks!
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Jun 01 2005 04:28 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there are some rumblings in the long range global models that have been fairly consistent for the last couple of days. we've been in a transitional pattern, so they're still somewhat dubious, but finally there is more consistency in the pattern features through next week as well.. so they're at least worth looking out for now.
near the end of next week a weak low appears just east of the lesser antilles and wanders north into the subtropical jet and peters out. about that time (weekend after the upcoming one) a low develops in the western caribbean and drifts north towards florida.. then is blocked by a ridge and moves nw towards the central/western gulf. the persistance of either of these features in modeling could indicate that first atlantic system we're all awaiting... things to look out for.
HF 1659z01june
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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I really don't think we'll be waiting 'til August for our first system. I think chances are better than even we'll see one in June. Atlantic temps are up and pressures down throughout the Caribbean. I think this is another season that we're not looking forward to in Florida, but I believe south Florida and the GOM are the places that are vulnerable. Think '95 is a good analog. Can't believe the 'cane season is here already. Be safe all!! Cheers
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It is good to be back in action. I too believe that this board has gotten more sophisticated with the hurricane season and it has been a pleasure to be part of this.
I wish everyone a safe season and good luck to us all.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Hello all! Can't believe it's already "that" time again. I'm definitely more prepared for this season than any other one, and I've moved off the beachside to the mainland. I'll be here like last year reading posts, and offering my own $.02.
Heather, here's an article that was posted in another topic about El Nino/La Nina and analog years. Should give you an answer about rainfall totals, etc.
http://www.independentwx.com/2005.html
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Check the Surf
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Which models are foretelling this storm developing next week?
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Derek Sutherland
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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We have had above average rain in south Florida this May,does that mean a weak Bermuda high?And does a weak Bermuda high mean south Fl. will be spared?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
We have had above average rain in south Florida this May,does that mean a weak Bermuda high?And does a weak Bermuda high mean south Fl. will be spared?
First thing you have to do is examine exactly where the rainfall in SFL has been above average. The map on this link is good for viewing rainfall totals:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/monthly.html
Only three of the counties on this map experienced above average rainfall during May. The rest of them had below average rainfall. Moreover, the "district average" was .68 inches below normal for the month. Sure, a few counties clocked in with decently above average totals, but overall I'd call May slightly below average for South Florida.
Another important point to make is the timing of the rainfall. The past few days have been pretty rainy for much of the Florida Peninsula, right? In fact, we had some decent batches of rain come across the peninsula late last night. Now, does the May rainfall/Florida hurricanes relationship some kind of switch that automatically goes off 12 AM on 1 June? With so much rainfall occuring so late in the month, I'd be weary of just how much these late totals really count.
And then there's the argument that you can't really predict Florida (or US) landfalls several months in advance. Dr. Gray has been one of the foremost experts to state that landfall predictions months in advance simply cannot be made (with accuracy) at this time. This is the stance that I tend to agree with. Since the advent of the 3 day forecast track, hurricane forecasters have at one time or another experienced problems in producing accurate forecasts. Three months in advance? Forget about it. It simply is not possible to predict the small variations that can occur in the atmosphere months in advance. Sure, the Bermuda High might be weaker than average for the majority of the summer, but if the position and strength are right for just ONE storm, disaster can occur.
This argument has come up before, but it is one worth recalling from time to time.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.
Just remember, 'Correlation does not equate to causation'
About the only way I could see any linkage between rainfall in florida and hurricane hits would be some sort of larger causation factor that affects both Rainfall totals in florida and the formation/track of hurricanes in the atlantic.
Be an interesting study of the larger weather patterns... I wonder if I could use it for a masters thesis? 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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This guy,and many others think that if we get alot of rain here in May,That meanes the Bermuda High is weak.And that will save us from Hurricanes.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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