Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The season's first tropical depression, TD #1, has formed in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. Located just over 300 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, the storm is forecast to gradually become better organized into a strong tropical storm over the next three days and make landfall along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. A series of hurricane hunter flights is planned into the storm over the coming days to provide further information about the storm, which continues to become better organized on satellite imagery with time.
Everyone along the northern Gulf coast from Texas to Florida should pay attention to the path & evolution of this storm. We'll know more about the future intensity and path of the season's first depression over the coming hours.
Current Model Plots (Thanks M. Bryson & Coop)
Event Related Links
Animated model plots for TD#1
Edited by MikeC (Wed Jun 08 2005 10:18 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Until we get links and (hopefully) 's maps...i'll post the weather underground tracking map
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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I talked to a good friend of mine, he's got alot of knowledge and expirence in forecasting, and chasing tropical weather. He believes TD1 has the possibilty of becoming a minimal hurricane before landfall. I tend to think so too, but Im going to stick with a 60 mph tropical storm landfalling somewhere between the Mouth of the MS. and Destin. Leaning towards Biloxi/Pascagoula.
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BigTK99
Unregistered
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One thing interesting to note. If you look at Climatology in early june. Most storms from that origin normally strike the west coast of florida
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I posted this morning at the tropical weather forum on S2K that I have it as a 65mph Tropical Storm making landfall mid-day Monday between Henderson Point, MS (Hancock Co.) and Mobile Bay (Mobile Co.). Some of the pro mets I've encountered think the /GFS is way too fast and too far west. We'll see.
Steve
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Post deleted by LI Phil
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Displaced Cajun
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well looks like the models currently agree on a landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola. My personal opinion says somewhere near or just east of Mobile, AL... possibly as a minimal Hurricane. Looks like it will come very close or just over the tip of western Cuba too, this likely sometime overnight Thursday or very early Friday, and probably as a 45 mph Tropical Storm.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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I got the feeling that the track in going to shift a little more towards the east.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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no big deal...i don't get nervous till they are a cat 3....
a tropical storm is almost a daily event in Mobile. This place can suck up some rain...all it will do is keep things cooler, but, alas...wet....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Our local met out of Tampa stated that they feel the Bermuda High would guide the storm towards the west. My question is where is the Bermuda High located at this time, latitude and longitude etc. Because there is no definitive satellite picture showing the effects of the high as there was last year.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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I agree Rick, The Pensacola area could handle a minimal TS but a strong TS or minimal hurricane might be pushing it. Alot of people still live in temporary shelter AKA trailers and RV's. Hope they start strapping them down soon.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
somebody please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe there are other factors (like the ridge clark mentioned) which would cause this TD to move NNW, but not the BH
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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got a hunch that it will get up to hurricane in the south central gulf late on friday, then near steady on its way in, maybe weakening slightly near landfall. think that will be sunday afternoon near perdido bay (fl/al border).. maybe just east of where crossed last year. an earlier landfall will be further west, probably a weak sheared system. later will be more to the east, probably the same relative intensity (borderline ts/hurricane). i don't think louisiana or anywhere east of apalachicola gets hit... somewhere in the middle, most likely pascagoula over to navarre.
HF 2339z08june
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Steve unplugged
Unregistered
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>>well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
You're smoking the grass - not saying I blame you or anything. The position of the Bermuda High/SW Atlantic Ridge plays a part in all storms that travel its periphery or approach its sphere of influence. Often that ridge is deep into the SE US, other times it's out to sea It just depends on where it's at and what its strength is. My guess would be the western periphery will be across the Florida peninsula, and belief that it's going to build in and accelerate TD #! in a NNW-NW motion around it's western side. How strong the ridging is and how far west it comes will determine if we have a WFL landfall or an AL/MS landfall.
Steve
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Steve-ack
Unregistered
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>>and belief that it's going to build in and accelerate TD #! in a NNW-NW motion around it's western side
And what that was supposed to continue to say was the belief...is what's guiding the and modeling in the track.
Steve
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
somebody please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe there are other factors (like the ridge clark mentioned) which would cause this TD to move NNW, but not the BH
The Bermuda High's influence will depend on it's strength. was steered, at least in part, by the Bermuda High.
Don't mistake the upper level ridge that is forecast to develop over this system with the BH...BH is a surface feature...however, you are both correct. If you look at a current surface analysis of the Atlantic the BH is there, although much further NE than the height of the season last year. This system will track around the "edge" of the BH, but will also ride 'underneath' the ULH...does that make sense?
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Jason Kelley
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Makes alot of sense Jason, Thanks. By the way, I recieved a DVD from a buddy that had footage from your station during when that tornado went right over the station. It was quite amazing seeing the clouds and debris rotating around the camera. Bet that must have been exciting. Anyways, what are your thoughts on our little depression?
Edited by Droop31 (Wed Jun 08 2005 07:11 PM)
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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Check this out. Isnt this a little too soon to post a tropical storm warning for the United States?
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=tropical%20storm%20warning
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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That warning is for the offshore waters, not for any land areas.
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