Anonymous
Unregistered
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except that a few years ago I dreamt Mobile got hit twice in the same year....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Nice to see you share a post. It's been a while since i've heard from you. Hope things are well will you and yours. Storm has the most potential to wreak havoc since....well..Andrew I guess. Say a prayer for us in Florida (are you still here)? we're gonna need it. CHeers!! Steve H.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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OK I have read and watched and read and really gotten interested but Kevin have I missed yout latest thoughts?
I really would like to know what the thoughts are re TD10 hitting Florida as a Hurricane.
THanks
JustMe
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It sure looks like the center would be right in the middle of the c shaped black blob in this IR picture doesnt it, remember that recon had repositioned the center further ne than where it was, maybe it has shifted back ne some more? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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never say never year 95 2 storms back to back one was Opal these thing play tricks north gulf be ready for that trick if we new were this thing was realy going we would be somewhere else but we will gess for the next 5 days because we love it and one of us will be right pray that its not you
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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TD#10 much better organized and best yet. Center looks to be centered right in middle of deep convection. Next update should have this at TS. Looks as though its going to get stronger from here on out.
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rick in mobile
Unregistered
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Joe Bastardi says the energy to the west of it....over central america and in the pacific a tad...is inhibiting the energy flow...sort of "competing with" the system for available energy. .well, he said that this morning. the latest loops show that this one is starting to "take over"....any one else see that? I see our little TD #10 sucking the energy from the west...and one thing Bastardi said...if any of the energy "masses" take over...watch out!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Possible Flooding Over South Florida Late This Week...
Tropical depression number 10 in the western Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica early Tuesday evening is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move west northwest the next 12 to 24 hours. Rain associated with this system may begin to impact South Florida on Thursday and possibly continue for several days. The rainfall could be excessive and cause widespread flooding over most of South Florida.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just looked at the floater pix posted above....and it looks eerily similar to THIS:
Dvorak Intensity Classification
Check out the 3.5 Image. Is it me or what? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks good to me this thing is growing up fast it needs a name
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nick
Unregistered
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Colleen great site, looks like between 2.5 and 3.5 from what i saw , like i said a c shaped blob
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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aite... the convection is going right over the last center fix. unfortunately no telling if the center is there anymore, it's been jig-bobbing in an overall nnw direction since this morning, up towards western jamaica. but, the convection to the east is receding in the last few images.. maybe it will start concentrating more on developing a convective core now? we'll find out when recon gets back.
HF 0216z18september
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Anonymous
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when is next recon
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So does anyone think this could be like the 1995 year with Erin/Hanna then Opal/Isidore? hmm. makes sense but who knows? guess will have to wait
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rick in mobile
Unregistered
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in three days...from the Navy weather site...what is 70 knots?...about a cat 2?
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 23.5N0 84.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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78 mph
Category 1.
Multiply knots by 1.12 to get mph
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alan
Unregistered
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No strengthening.
Movement a little more north than west.
Little slower in 72 hour projections.
same path.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow. This is it, ladies and gentlemen. The one for which we have been waiting all season. We may not see another like this, so get all of your wishcasting out now. Since I am in Orlando, I expect Isidore to come up to Tampa Bay, then jump about 100 miles to Orlando, without loosing any strength. I'm not sure how the storm surge is going to make it this far inland, but I'm sure it will. 
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 8
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002
...Depression nearing tropical storm strength...
at 11 PM...0300 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
At 11 PM...0300 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of western Cuba on
Wednesday.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression
Ten was located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 77.9 west or
about 100 miles...165 km...southwest of Kingston Jamaica.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression will likely become a tropical storm on
Wednesday. Most of the strongest winds with the depression
are located well to the north and east of the center. If
strengthening occurs...tropical storm force winds could spread over
portions of Jamaica within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Heavy rains are expected to spread over Jamaica over the next 24
hours...and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...16.9 N... 77.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT...Wednesday.
Forecaster Avila
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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How about the taking it to 939mb just west of the Keys in 4 days. What would that equate to generally in wind speed--strong cat. 3?
A couple of years ago there used to be a lady who posted here, I think her name was Mary, who, every time a storm looked like it might come near Central Florida would shoo something called the "Lakeland Monster" on it. And every time she did it the storm would turn away, or weaken or something...I don't know what the heck she was talking about but we might need her early next week! LOL!
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