Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well radar is up, just having time getting data from NOAA
just found out the elgin radar is being switced over to tropical status quo when things get active....
NOUS62 KTAE 101230
FTMEVX
Message Date: Jun 10 2005 12:30:34
THE CHANGES THAT ROC/TPC RECOMMENDED FOR TROPICAL OPERATION HAVE BEEN MADE TO TH
E RADAR. THE STP HAS BEEN RESET BUT THE RADAR HAS NOT BEEN PLACED IN TROPICAL Z/
R YET. WILL WAIT THE CORE OR THE STORM GETS CLOSER AND A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. KMOB 88B CONTROL
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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RedingtonBeachGuy: central Florida is in for a fair amount of rain overnight. The threat for tornadoes will persist through the night, however, as these are not driven by daytime heating -- instead, they are driven by the dynamics, or how the wind changes direction with height as well as locally near the surface. That's just a factor of the hurricane being there, really.
Rain will be the biggest factor, yes, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Looks like they will bump it up to 70mph at 4pm
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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New bouy data for 42003... pressure there still dropping, now at 29.51 in Hg = 999ish mb. Winds from the NE at 29.1 kts.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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appears to be a lot of ships out in the storm
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/281.jpg
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/283.jpg
great for recon*** next set of ships appear to be on the wnw side...far way
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
appears to be a lot of ships out in the storm
I'm guessing the little wind thingies represent where the ships are?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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should be....one of them is a bouy 42003
click the same picture here to see movement, scroll down on left
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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#29 Published Friday June 10, 2005 at 2:15 pm EDT
As of 2:00 pm EDT T.S. is moving due north at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. This northerly course is a little to the right of the official forecast track and is what I was alluding too yesterday while discussing the weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida.
She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the weakening mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. Even with continued wind shearing she still has managed to strengthen some and could still reach minimal category 1 status before landfall. However I think she will fall just short of a hurricane with 70 mph sustained winds. What's 5 mph though. While a course turn to the NNW with a landfall near Mobile Bay sometime late on Saturday June, 11, 2005 per the official forecast track is still very possible, I think that a landfall near Pensacola tomorrow evening is also increasingly possible.
Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes (due to extra-tropical characteristics) are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period. Once inland flooding rains could occur across the deep south and Tennessee Valley regions.
And speaking of tornadoes they are occurring in the Florida Keys region northward along the west coast to the southern Tampa Bay region as I type.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I found it, but had to go through the colostate.edu main site to get there.... This is what I was looking for earlier, since it very much helps to see where the bouys are with respect to the storm. Only thing, the loop looks kind of freaky, since it keeps moving around....
Thanks!
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I'm inclined to agree with you today. I took a long look at the upper air environment, and I don't see the ridge building in to the SE USA just yet. The 500 mb UAA at 12Z showed no height rises at all. Looking at the satellite; which chasing all those small vortices can drive you to drink; there are a few of them embedded in the overall circulation. I do note the shear is lessening as clouds are tending more to the W and SW around the low level center, but I did find one ominous sign at that's NOAA buoy 42003, just to the NW of the center. Pressure as dropped rather rapidly to 999 mbs now, but a closer look at visible satellite shows a small vorticy in the vicinty and the buoy is indicating an E; not NE winds; maybe a bubble ridge or wake from a near by thunderstorm; difficult to say at the moment. Disjiointed systems can become hurricanes, but minimal. The UL trough is still entraining dry air into her and there is considerable subsidence to her west, though the winds do appear to be backening; which will help in sustaining some strengthening if they continue to backen as she moves N. I think if can get her center up under the convection; she's in business, o/w CAT1 is plausible. 10/2023Z
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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yeah the storm keeps moving, so the sat image keeps up with storm, also as i write this NOAA9 just sent in a drop report and AF302 are in the storm. will post info when decoded!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Big TK
Unregistered
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Clark is there any possibility that the storm could stall over the eastern GOMEX?
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Orlandoalan
Unregistered
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If high pressure were building east to Florida, wouldn't the bouy 120 miles east of Port Canaveral have a pressure increase instead of a pressure decrease? They are down .04 in pressure in the last hour and although just slightly below 24 hours ago.
Or is the high pressure in the upper atmosphere?
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I hope everyone on the Gulf Coast has a safe weekend. I am out of here for the weekend. If I get my computer up and working this weekend, I will check in. But, I have Madison's b-day party tomorrow so I am sure I will be busy with that!
Be safe and talk to you Monday if not sooner.
Katie
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Arlene is moving at a nice clip..N-NW. I do not see any climatic reasons why she should stall.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Heads Up
Unregistered
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At 5pm:
At 5 PM...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
eastward along the northern Gulf Coast from St Marks Florida to
Steinhatchee river Florida...and the Hurricane Watch has been
extended eastward to Indian Pass Florida.
65 mph, 997
HU
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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5PM is out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/102042.shtml
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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landfall pensacola!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 PM)
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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
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Jim Cantore is in Pensacola, that cinches it for me!!!!! 
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My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
Edited by CarolinaGurl (Fri Jun 10 2005 05:07 PM)
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Ed G
Unregistered
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land fall prediction... 50 miles north of tampa
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