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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tornados? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #36829 - Fri Jun 10 2005 01:59 PM

it going to be fun knowing and having eglin radar and mobile level II. So when she gets close it going to look pretty kewl. The panhandle first live look at a TS and its feed bands over head. WJHG has the VIPIR with level II, the only station in panhandle

just heard new update... 25n 85 west...same speed i think....north at 13

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 10 2005 02:02 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: could it be? [Re: jth]
      #36830 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:01 PM

2:00 pm out
North at 13
997 mb 60 mph
still expect slow NNW turn


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Tornados? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #36831 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM

First real squall coming through here right now. Torrential rain and 25-30 mph gusts. A quarter inch of rain in 5 minutes and still pouring. Now, the tornado watch too.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Droop31
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
Re: could it be? [Re: Frank P]
      #36832 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM

Like Frank P said, it all depends on the degree of NNW it takes. As we well know, TS and Hurricanes dont follow straight lines. Oh and thanks for the kind thoughts Frank P! I'll be sure to send a few nice squalls your way OK?

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: could it be? [Re: Frank P]
      #36833 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:07 PM

pressure based on ship report 2 hrs ago, if i remember correctly .....it takes a few hours from when pressure drops to see an increase in winds? the storms on wnw side are getting bigger and starting to warp around i think towards the south.

thunderstorms on the left side of center?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: could it be? [Re: Droop31]
      #36834 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:08 PM

Never have gottien a handle on models. Why do most of them have a NE recurve, but the official track is to IN?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: could it be? [Re: Droop31]
      #36835 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:09 PM

anything for the great state of Florida Droop... hey we are getting our first good effects of Arlene as I type... nice squall line coming thru Biloxi at the moment.... winds kicking up to at least 20-25k with some white caps in the gulf...

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: could it be? [Re: Frank P]
      #36836 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:13 PM

Yeah, Lakeland is going to get a direct hit with 120 mph winds. I agree....when pigs fly.

We got a real good rain ban earlier just about 11 am and the wind in the past hour has picked up a bit. Just cloudy no rain as of right now. The radar didn't look too hopeful for any sun today, so we are keeping the umbrellas ready. I may venture out in an hour or so for ice cream break for the office, unless it starts raining again.


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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
Re: could it be? [Re: Frank P]
      #36837 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:15 PM

Anyone look at the NOGAPS GFS models lately. Predicting that after landfall will curve ne exit into atlantic on ne coastline of us and possibly intensify????

I know its too early to tell and that might be unheard of but what do u all think. Even if it never hits land again. this is based on 144hr models


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: could it be? [Re: Katie]
      #36838 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM

They say the worst for us here will be between 2-8pm today.Highest gust is still 34mph.On and off rain.And,oh yea,a tornado watch.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Londovir
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 94
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: could it be? [Re: Katie]
      #36839 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM

I'll stick with what I said on the chat last night - I'm saying Cat. 1 (real weak, barely) for a brief time in GOM, and then it'll wussie out and return to TS status for landfall. I didn't call where, but I'll say somewhere between Pensacola and Appalachicola.

Now, back to work on the hurricane program. ;-)

--------------------
Londovir


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: could it be? [Re: Londovir]
      #36840 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:31 PM

convection now in all quadrants but south
expect to see 65 mph by 5pm today

also center visible on radar
west of Naples and south of Tallahassee

at this rate i expect landfall between Cedar Key and Panama City


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: could it be? [Re: mysticalmooons]
      #36841 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:32 PM

mysticalmooons -- it is picking up on the remnant center going out into the Atlantic and developing as a midlatitude (extratropical cyclone). However, it is likely underestimating the current intensity of the tropical cyclone -- the global models never do well with them -- thus giving the impression of intensification in the NE US.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: could it be? [Re: Rabbit]
      #36842 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:37 PM

Yeah its very interesting on the exact position on where they want to put the center. Radar shows the center fixing itself more N near 26.2 right now moving almost due N. If this does infact become the true center, then they might adjust the warning areas to the east. Still dont look like anylandfall S of Cedarkey but remember this is mainly a rain maker with quick spawned tornados. Pressure of 997mb coordinates to 55-60mph. Canes are usually near 987 or 988mb.

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anon
Unregistered




Re: could it be? [Re: scottsvb]
      #36843 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:54 PM

Do not think that is the center. Appears on Sat loops that center is under the new small cluster of storms that formed just west of 85 and is moving NNW.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: could it be? [Re: scottsvb]
      #36844 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:55 PM

Looks to me like the dry air to the west is starting to hurt Arlene.And she is running out of room.I think the central penisula is the target.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: huh?? [Re: Frank P]
      #36845 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:56 PM

Quote:

Predicted a couple of days ago between Ocean Spring and Pascagoula.... still looks right to me give or take a few miles... min Cat 1 certainly NOT out of the question, but FL panhandle will get the worst of it...




Funny.. June 1st here I said in message #35983:

Quote:

not being an avid weatherperson by any means, it seems the tropical weather that is hammering Florida might soon be met up with the low over New Orleans.. is there any possible way this could flare up?

Sure does seem like the front end of Charley right now in Florida.




While I was looking north for the answer, I should have been looking south it seems. It was just too tropical the week around the 1st of June here for it to be a coincidence. But, nobody listened.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: could it be? [Re: Clark]
      #36846 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM

Clark - what would be your take for central Florida into the night? Will the cooling of the day backoff the tornado type of activity we are seeing in south Florida or do you think it possibly could continue through the night here?

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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
Re: could it be? [Re: Clark]
      #36847 - Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM

oh ok, lol

So much to learn so little time.


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: could it be? [Re: mysticalmooons]
      #36848 - Fri Jun 10 2005 03:01 PM

looking at south florida radar..... looks like there's a rotating thunderstorm just east of key largo.... saw early the waterspout in north keys
radar south florida


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