Anonymous
Unregistered
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Has landfall Late Monday.Early Tuesday North of Cedar Key/Suwannee River as a very strong system. A tad east of where the had it. Hard to see details on GGEM, but it stalled it and had it sitting off Ft. Myers 26N/84W for awhile. Models will change again. Cheers!! Steve H.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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OK guys consider this... maybe the whole gulf community will be affected by Isidore. When Isidore comes off of Cuba and if he does make a West jog or just stalls out in the central gulf and if it does come to pass what Avila mentioned in the 11p discussion regarding the potiental size of this thing we may all have a little taste of his fury, I mean have you seen the size of this thing on some of the model runs it takes up the whole Gulf After it makes a tour around the gulf we could all at least get some squally weather and rain. Toni 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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only a few of the frames are out, but the new runs have the system tracking further east and north than previous ones. seems to be slowing down in the last couple, out around dry tortugas. hurricane watches for the keys tomorrow, im betting. hypothetical question: what happens if the storm moves into florida coastal waters and then starts to erratically drift, as opposed to off the yucatan? a wetter than normal weekend, perhaps?
the moon is full, tides are at their cyclical max. surge booster.
HF 0554z19september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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making a late night brief summary here.Isadore will become a very strong hurricane in 72 hours. Currently as forcasted she past SW of jamaica and just E of Grand Cayman, she will become a hurricane later today and make landfall around 81W near mid afternoon.She might briefly go back to TS strength late tonight but will again friday become a hurricane and move NW -NNW to near 24N and 83.5W close to what the 00Z model. Right now its up in the air after this, but this could become now a Cat 4. A strong trough again will swing through the Mississippi valley early next week and could push her again to the N or NNE. Lets wait till she gets to Cuba first,. Any wobble to the N will put Hurricane watches up for the Keys and SW florida. Dont be surprised if Warnings go up for the southern keys. scottsvb
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Maybe they should call us the IR wishcasters? Anyway, anyone awake this evening? Nothing too spectacular changing on the IR front that I can see...couple blobs of convection blowing up as it has been doing, just looks like a nice storm. At best I'd say minimal hurricane at 5...but given how liitle has changed I'd lay my bet on it still being a strong TS. Any other thoughts on strength? As for where its going...I'd say somewhere between Cancun and Boston would be the only safe bet right now...but to take a stab at a guess, it keeps heading north and is gonna get itself tied up in southern florida somehow. Sorry that I can't give a better wishcast than that as I'm in Indiana its gonna have to be the strongest CAT 5 on record heading due north at about 500mph to make it to me 
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Well, given nobody is up I'll talk to myself a bit...5am advisory is out and has it moving wnw and a 65mph TS. Probably will be a hurricane for the intermediate at 8am. Pressure is finally dropping nicely and I'm guessing this is gonna be what kicks the chalk out from under the snowball waiting on top of the hill.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Storm is strenghthening with a partial eyewall developing and pressure down to 990 mb. Winds will now begin to respond to pressure drop. Direction is more to the WNW and speed has increased a bit. Models are starting to diverge more. Going from west to north to northeast. Storm should start to wrap up now. The big question again today is what direction? Our local mets have basically told S. Fl. that it is all clear. Mentioning only some quickly passing showers and winds no higher than 20-25 mph tonight and Friday. This storm will have to go somewhere since there is no exit out of the gulf. We shall soon see.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Excellent point, Richie. Someone is going to be affected by a major storm. We all know he's not going to take a due east heading. He's got to hit *somewhere*.
I say hurricane at 11am, as it will take a few hours to respond to the dropping pressure.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Looking at the most recent IR views, I'm sticking with my minimal hurricane at 8am idea. It wasn't looking nearly this good at 5am and it was nearly there then. Wow...look at the time...this night shifter gotta get some rest  Have a good day all, see you with our new hurricane this evening.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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All over the place. is east then Central GOM. 0z run is landfall near Cedar Key. UKMET is slow and cop a squat on Ft. Myers. MRF is NW then SW towards the BOC. This is soooo tiring. But there are no answers yet. Izzy is intensifying though, and has jogged west. Yeah, previous post was right, someone's gonna gte him!! Cheers Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Rick in Mobile..
Unregistered
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Hope I am not in ground zero...no way out of the gulf....insurance companies are puckering up...they are gonna get theirs...
Camille stalled in the gulf...remember?.....
Our weather channel lamented this would stall in the gulf, since steering currents so small....at that point in time, anyway. Camille stalled just long enough to get it's total act together....then blasted Mississippi with 180+ winds...no one really knows...but a 24 FOOT surge, I think...Pass Christian Mississippi. I wasn't in Mobile at the time, but my wife was, and Mobile had 100 mile per hour winds.
if it stalls, it will reach maximum potential strength...and in the gulf...that is a category 5....
hopefully not a supercane.......
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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FRom TBW (Tampa Bay) early morning disussion:
FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...ALL EYES TO THE SOUTH AS EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF ISIDORE IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
TPC TAKES SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF IN 48 HOURS...AND FROM
THERE LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR IMMEDIATE
ANSWERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY...WITH AVN/NOGAPS TURNING
SYSTEM WEST AND RUNNING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE 00Z CANADIAN A TERRIBLE SCENARIO OF THE STORM
STALLING AROUND 25N 85W...THEN BEING PULLED NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NATURE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST QUITE SIMILAR TO
CANADIAN...WHICH IS AN INCREASING CAUSE OF CONCERN. ETA/NGM ARE
THROWN OUT DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...NOT
TO MENTION ETA HAS STRANGE LOOKING SECONDARY SYSTEM AT 60 HOURS
STRONGER THAN ISIDORE BACK IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR NOW...WILL MAKE A FORECAST LEANING TOWARD A CLOSER APPROACH TO
BE ON THE SAFE SIDE AS TROF DIGGING INTO THE WEST LOOKS VERY STRONG
ON WATER VAPOR...AND UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY
WESTWARD AHEAD OF ISIDORE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE
NORTHWEST YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL REQUIRE BEEFING UP
THE WORDING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO INCLUDE BREEZY AND LIKELY
INSTEAD OF CHANCE POPS. WILL KEEP LATE SUMMER CLIMO GOING FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.
MARINE: SIMILAR TO ZONES...WILL BEEF UP WINDS AND SEAS WORDING FOR
THE WEEKEND LEANING TO THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF OPTIONS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ANYONE THINKING ABOUT VENTURING OUT INTO THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD CONSTANTLY UPDATE THEMSELVES ON THE MARINE FORECASTS
AS THEY COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ISIDORE.
The key message here: model divergence is GREATER than it has been. Tampa is usually pretty conservative, I give their comments and MLB considerable weight.
TWT.
IHS,
Bill
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Skeeter
Unregistered
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Skeeter here again. You folks are addicting ! Looked at last few frames of infared minutes ago, also looked at interactive water vapor loops as well. I am going out on a broken limb here and this is my first time posting an opinion so be easy on me. The storm appears to be almost stationary, water vapor is shows almost all the upper flow east of Yucatan beginning to move more to the east. Also starting to see the effects of the trough coming out of Texas. I think Isidore is going to end up hitting the Florida Pennisula, what do you guys think ? Thanks for having me. Chris
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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this doesn't mean much but i greatly respect the man...joe b thinks apalachicola on monday.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I'm not paying a whole lot of attention to them today. , and overplay a threat to Western, Peninsular Florida. Of course when it's considered that these runs are ou there now, but were actually from data at 7pm CDT last night, one can see why they're doing what they're doing. You can just see GreatOne looking at these runs, chewing off his fingertips because he's banned from posting at the Hollow but had been screaming about a Cat 5 hitting Tampa Bay this year. LOL.
Anyway, Isidore has decided on a decidedly WNW-W track for the near term. Change between 2am and 5am (EDT) is .1 north, .9 west. Maybe my math yesterday wasn't off that much  . Anyway, that's pretty much west for now. I read Basardi this morning and he offered 3 solutions: 1. Izzy gets caught up in the trof near term and heads on up to FL (most leaning toward this possibility); 2. gets caught up in the trof late and hits central Gulf (not leaning as much); 3. Trof and Izzy stare each other down and walk away - e.g. Izzy backs off WSW to a Mexican landfall (least likely in his opinion).
Me? I don't know. Forward speed is there now, but it's moving almost west the last 3 hours and has hedged their track "WNW-NW" for the next 24 hours. The trof really is now digging in more eastward than southerly (progressive trof). At some point, it's got to tug at Izzy ala Opal when the 2nd trof was up in Canada/Montana and started it north toward New Orleans before aiming her at the Panhandle. For the last few days, I was thinking the 2nd trof would miss Isidore completely, but I'm not so sure now. There is a decidedly SW flow across all points west of SE LA and at some point, that's got to make a difference and force a cut to the NNE/NE in almost any scenario except one that would curve it equatorward (new word for those who like poleward). Still too tough to call, but I like my Mississippi bullseye this year. If the European has its way, it's a central gulf storm. I don't like the looks of the 00Z European run inasmuch as I'm staring down the barrell of a Category 4 not too far to my SSW.
In any event, unless the NOAA decides to hire Dyno-Gel to take out Isidore, one of us is going to face Category 3 conditions early or mid next week. I hope it's >you< and not me . I've been hoping to see some legitimate 1 or 2 conditions for a long, long time. I can't do without an intense hurricane.
Should be a nerve wracking 5 days for everyone!
Steve
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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OK
SO this long information means what to me ?
Is it less like.ly to hit Florida or more?
I have company that I need to let know if they should fly or not for the weekend.
Anyone out there with any thoughts?
I thought I knew something about hurricanes however I know now I DONT. Lots of information and I am learning a lot.
Thanks for the info.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The word is uncertainty because after it emerges in the gulf anything is possible on what track it will take and that is why I dont relie on the models at this time because they are all over the place from going to Mexico to going to the florida penninsula so the best thing I am doing is to watch the reallity of what Isidore is doing at the moment.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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This is the most posts on one thread that I have seen since coming to this site.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think Florida is more likely a target than anywhere else. What does it mean for you? That you should buy alcohol and make sure you have whatever provisions you'd need in case hurricane conditions are threatening your area of FL. It also means you shouldn't panic but that you also must pay close attention to what your professional mets and the are telling you. If they say evacuate, evacuate. If they don't, don't. Just don't wait until the last minute to get the supplies that you might need to replenish.
Steve
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