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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3772 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:06 PM

2 PM advisory has winds now up to 50 mph.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3773 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:06 PM

WTNT35 KNHC 181743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

...ISIDORE SOAKING JAMAICA...BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND CIENFUEGOS WESTWARD...AND INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES ...50 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 175 MILES ...285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
CAYMAN.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE SINCE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM ...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. A NEW
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3774 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:10 PM

Also notice the motion is indeed NW.

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Where to find models
      #3775 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:11 PM

Brett asked, "Can any of you direct me to sites where I can view the individual models...?" The first post that starts any of these threads has several links at the bottom, under the heading "Some forecast models:". The links here will take you to the AVN, MRF and other models, and the DoD models link will take you to a page where you can request UKMET, NOGAPS and other models. There are also links below those to other discussions, such as Joe Bastardi, who is often mentioned here. There are also many links on the 'Storm Links' link on the navigation bar on the left of the screen.

Hoping I don't get a back-door hit from Isidore...
Jax Chris


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Isidore and Josephine forms. Forecasting Nightmare Deluxe
      #3776 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:13 PM

Good posts, With a Storm south of Florida with shfting models and slow movement no one should be quick to make any decisions other than to keep monitering and see how it finally unfolds.
There are some people making some very good posts on this board with well thoughtout reasons supporting their thinking on the future of Isadore. These are both interesting to read and educational . I am sure most if not all them would be the first to tell the less experienced and knowledgeable to use their own eyes and to follow the official recomendations.
As pointed out by Bobbi, Colleen and others you dont need a direct hit to have your weather greatly affected. This is especially true with a storm as strong and large as this one looks like it will be.
As for me, I'll be watchin, waitin, and spending to much time,"trying to reason with Hurricane season"
Hurric


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
NNW
      #3777 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:13 PM

Tracking coordinates from 5 a.m. until 2 p.m. shows a 1.0 degree northward movement, and a 0.6 degree westward movement (cumulative). Over the past 9 hours, Izzy has moved more NNW than NW just based on coordinate history.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Where to find models
      #3778 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:16 PM

http://www.net-waves.net/weather/tropics.php

Brett here is another site that has some tropic info


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3779 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:21 PM

Brett...if the NOGAPS is doing that, then either it knows something we don't or it's completely out to lunch. If ALL the models were doing it, okay. Is it only that one?

Mark..yes, I do miss John Hope and I wish we had more forecasters like Brian Norcross who warned Miami about Andrew. He was the only one that I know of who even went there...and he was right.

Here's a very good indicator of where the storm will make landfall: look for Jim Cantore. Wherever HE is, that's where they go. I don't care if the models said Houston, if he was in the Keys, that's where it would go.

I will be interested to see what RECON reports when they get to the center. This storm is very unnerving to say the least. I've always heard it said (mainly from John Hope and some of the old NHC Directors) that your area is never out of the woods until it passes your lon/lat coordinates. That's when you can breath a sigh of relief.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3780 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:29 PM

but breath quickly because they can do the ol' loopity loop

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Loop De Loop
      #3781 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:33 PM

LOL, Andy! Quick wit you have! ;-)



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3782 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:52 PM

andy great site waves.net. izzy getting stronger on every photo banding starting to come in from the nw, around center. on that page A98 e model looks intresting. potential track from NHC moving little more east each one. mark

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
key west radar
      #3783 - Wed Sep 18 2002 02:57 PM

looking at the key west radar it appears they are some rain showers on the way. are these outer bands from izzy or from something else? also with a hurricane watch for west cuba do you think t/s watch or warning will be issued for the keys later?

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Taking a real hard look at the possiblities.
      #3784 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:01 PM

First of all, I'd like to tell you all that you need to probably take the models as a very, very fine grain of salt at this point. I have noticed that some models force the storm westward with no ridge above it at all...that's just plain whacked. Doesn't happen too often.

Another thing I urge my fellow Floridians to look at is climatology. How many storms in the past have missed troughs at this time in September while in the GOMEX? Not too many, if any at all. Climatology simply shows that this storm will, in the end, effect Florida. Not wishcasting here, just giving the pure facts. *IF*, and I mean *IF* the trough picks this storm up, it will likely make landfall in the Big Bend area. Subject to change, of course. But given the pretty large size of this storm Central Florida would likely get some hurricane conditions.

If this storm intensifies to a major hurricane...and it likely will...it should move north at 5-10 mph. This brings the possibility of this storm moving north and meeting the trough will no problem. Once again, just another scenario.

My final word: It still looks to me like Florida is the main threat for Florida. Although the chances are somewhat high along the northern GOMEX, the storm should clear just to the east of here. It is going to be a stomach-churning weekend here, but in the end, I think Isidore will be a Florida storm.

Let's see what happens...pressures also starting to fall. Also, any NNW movement could shift the track to the right. I feel that as Isidore begins to develop an eye tomorrow, there will be flucuations to the NNW due to wobbling, common in weak hurricanes. Watch for that.

Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




NNW Motion? Not a chance...
      #3785 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:01 PM

We all kind of want and don't want a piece of this action, but there is no NNW movement today. In fact, the change in the official position from the 11am advisory and the 2pm advisory is a slope of 3/12 (1/4) which puts it halfway between WNW and due West - that is for every tenth of a degree it's moved north, it's moved 4 tenths of a degree west. The only reason it looks like a NNW motion is because some of the convection is riding on in from the E and NE potion of the system. A recon is supposed to be there within the hour, so it will be interesting to see if they plot it differently than the NHC has.

Steve


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: key west radar
      #3786 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:03 PM

Andy1Tom: No TS/Hurricane watching and warnings for 48 hours AT LEAST. This is also barring any major center relocation, of course. Like myself and other are saying, this will be a nail-biter of a weekend. We're on pins and needles for now.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3787 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:03 PM

for whatever it is worth...IMHO the sat pics confirm a path slightly right of the NW diection and if this does not deviate the storm should impact Cuba east of the Cayman...but we all know how that goes...the environment ahead seems to suggest, at least for now, that upper steering is predominantly from south to north, at least that is the direction the high clouds over extreme western Cuba seem to be blowing...the low level SE fetch around the ridge is supposed to be the dominant steering mechanism for now, but the more northerly movement than the initialization predicted may be because the storm is feeling that S to N upper air push...have to see if that backs off too in the same way the upper low did as that may be related to that feature as well. As I looked at all the models, the ones that have the storm move the quickest take it into west Florida...the others hold it back into the central gulf for a couple of extra days and the it is pushed back NE...only one throws it west into Mexico... the forward motion is fairly deliberate now which favors no quick (72hrs) landfall in US. EDS.

--------------------
doug


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3788 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:16 PM

11am 17.9n 78.7w
2pm 18.2n 78.9w

just a tad right of NW


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore and Josephine forms. Forecasting Nightmare Deluxe
      #3789 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:18 PM

there has been a nnw movement today just saw it posted here and ive been watching loops and center has moved more nnw than nw recently.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




MY BAD!
      #3790 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:19 PM

slope is 3/2 NNW. 17.9 78.7 to 18.2 78.9. Goes to show what getting coordinates when talking to someone else at the same time does for writing stuff down. I'm a distracted cell-phone talking driver. Pardon that last post which I can't delete since I wasn't logged in to post it. BAH!

My bad.

Steve


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Miami...safe better than sorry
      #3791 - Wed Sep 18 2002 03:20 PM

thats ok steve just owe us al a round on you!

I drink Guinness! and Hey I'll buy the 2nd round!

Troy


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