Kimmie at work
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Looking more and more like a northern Gulf hit! Kind of reminds me of Camille in a way. Time will surely tell, and everyone from Biloxi east should keep an eye on Izzy!
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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You must be referring to Irene.......while Miami was getting pounded, they kept pointing towards Naples/Sarasota. That's where Jim Cantore was, too--in Miami.
I heard on WFLA-Tampa 970 this afternoon at 4pm Jack Beven talking about this storm....he said the models are all split right down the middle....they either recurve it to the west because it misses the front/trough or they take it N and then NE into Florida somewhere. So, according to HIM it's 50/50.
He said a definite track would be difficult to forecast before Friday. I guess that's the "magic day" as to whether it's a hit or a miss.
I also noticed that they did not, as of 5pm, lower the strike probabilities for Key West. They are still at 22%, Tampa went down 1%.
Time will tell the tale..... 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I have stated from the first, that this was Mobile's major cane. Call it a gut feeling, woman's intuition or whatever, it may not be a direct hit, but VERY close. The only thing Im wondering, if this could be Camille all over again.
Southern
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Poster: Kimmie at work
Subject: Re: And the million dollar question is....
Looking more and more like a northern Gulf hit! Kind of reminds me of Camille in a way. Time will surely tell, and everyone from Biloxi east should keep an eye on Izzy!
I was gonna say that myself, but you beat me to it  I was in the USAF, stationed at Keesler AFB (Biloxi) when Camille came blowing in. Biloxi was just east of the actual landfall, in the NE quadrant. No one actually knows the wind speed (the anenometer blew away), but I will remember for a lifetime of the terror of a hurricane that was just under a F1 tornado in strength. I lived in a mobile home on base, but I literally tied it down using 2" rope wrapped around the trailer and secured to burried tire hubs. My trailer survived, but ones around me looked like matchwood. We were without power for 3 months, the main road/highway bridge over the back bay was heavily damaged (the center span was picked up, rotated 45 degrees and set back down). The damaged span was 30-50 feet above MSL. The storm surge flooded to the roof lines all of the base housing homes. I took refuge in the hangars where the radar classrooms were enclosed...got wet anyway, but the buildings protected us.
To those that *want* a hurricane to come through their area: You don'k now what you are asking for. You should content yourself with predicting its path and intensity, but hoping that path does not impact yourself or your neighbors. Even Cat 1 hurricanes kill people.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Good point Colleen. Models have shifted west, but we need to see some run to run consistency before jumping to any conclusions.
FWIW, the URL below is a good one to check to see many of the model plots. For about 3 days, most *are* in agreement, but then things change....
http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Justin in Miami
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FYI,
All the local news stations are reporting that South FL..particularly SE FL...will not be impacted by the storm.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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New votex message. Still moving due north
!URNT12 KNHC 182126
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/2126Z
B. 19 DEG 08 MIN N
78 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1412 M
D. 30 KT
E. 056 DEG 56 NM
F. 166 DEG 51 KT
G. 078 DEG 020 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 16 C/ 1525 M
J. 20 C/ 1535 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF866 0810A ISIDORE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 56 KT E QUAD 2047Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
FYI,
All the local news stations are reporting that South FL..particularly SE FL...will not be impacted by the storm.
I don't doubt that at all....meaning I don't doubt the stations are discounting an impact there. I do however, look at the satellite and a map and see that 1) the storm is basically due south of Florida, 2) the storm has tracked more north than predicted earlier (whether due to reformation of the center or actual movement, the result is the same) and 3) as long as it is South of Florida, it *can* still reach any point in that state. The stations don't want to scare tourists away so must pick up on any 'good' news they can with regard to things that will impact tourist travel in that area.
A prudent person will take the models with a grain of salt, but like all of the places that provide/display the models output all say: "Do NOT use this information for planning purposes". It is input to your decision matrix, to be sure, but hurricanes can and do go where they want, not where a TV forecaster says it will or won't.
Be a skeptic, keep abreast of the available information and don't rule out *anything*.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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I just heard that too! A matter of fact the words I heard were: Its gonna be sunny in So. Fl this weekend IF Izzy behaves! Anyway if thats the case great! I do have a couple of questions:
1. It seems he has lost some of his deep convection the last few loops. Is this do to the relocation of the center further North?
2. And if it was relocated more to the North wouldnt that put it closer to So. FL, or was the track of it possibly being a threat to So. FL only based on the trough picking it up?
Any answers would be greatly appreciated. THANKS 
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Anonymous
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sounds like there is a lot of wishcasting! Isidore will go where the good lord wants her to go!!!
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Anonymousnickd
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i admit that i am just another tropical weather hobbyist so i certaintly cannot make scientific forecasts. but i can tell you what i see. what i see from the up close water vapor is if the center had "reformed" to the north it really looks less likely that izzy will reach the western edge of cuba. it looks like it will be much further east exiting right on the keys or slightly west of the keys. here's another thought...since it may be closer to land than originally thought, would this hinder explosive development? for some reason i don't see this becoming a major so quickly. help me please
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Anonymous
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jeanine ive been saying that all day. its been going more nnw than nw. the whole time. every mile it goes north the future threat to fla. increases.also look at latest sat. pic its moving more north than anything.west or nw. fla. is not out of the woods.
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Anonymous
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Northwest Flordia meaning the panhandle? Explain please
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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and think about this keys are around 82 83 long. if goes just a little north of nw it goes right over them.just saw sat. photos its going due north just what i thought i saw.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Answers to Jeanine's questions:
1. Isidore's convection has been on a slight decreasing trend the past hour or so. However, the organization trend continues. The storm is starting to wrap up significantly with a large feeder band on the east side.
2. The center relocation itself causes a potential increase in a Florida threat. Although this is boost in latitude, it is still not enough for the trough to pick it up. In all fairness, I am actually getting concerned about this relocation that occured. Isidore seems to be showing signs of a NNW or even a N movement. Time will tell if this means anything...but Irene is ripe in the back of my mind.
Kevin 
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Florida is not out of the woods yet, neither is anyone on the coast of the GOM. Just like Irene in '99, that was forecasted to go one place and went another. These storms, I believe, have their own will, along with troughs out there, to go where they please. Until "Izzy" makes landfall, I'm not counting anyone out just yet...
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Justin in Miami
Unregistered
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Admin....I am curious, What storm received the most discussion? I bet this one will be one the most discussed storms in the coming days.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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First off, if you pose a question to me and I don't respond right away, please excuse that...I'll try to get to anyone who asks me a question, but it's starting to get a little busy around here!
Now, some thoughts....
1) The weaker presentation on the IR sats this evening is almost certainly due to the center reformation. Looking at the data from recon and surrounding obs, the wind field is becoming less broad, and tighter around the center...a promising sign of organization. Likewise, it looks like the pressure drops are beginning, with a 998 from the last fix...winds should begin responding accordingly in the next 8-12 hours. I'll give you even money on a 11pm upgrade to hurricane, almost sure bet on a 5am upgrade if not. This is one of those cases where IR is not the best tool to use, as it is pretty deceiving.
2) Over the short term the models are in amazing agreement, but unfortunately, they have a problem...they are calling for NW motion, and we are seeing more NNW to almost N motion at this time...while normally not a big deal, this has HUGE implications on the eventual forecast track, as the more N and E the entry to the gulf, the more likely a Northern Gulf strike, and the more possible a recurve to the NE towards the peninsula becomes. I'm hearing the all clear being called for the peninsula...I'm not one of those yet. While the likelyhood of a peninsula strike isn't likely, it certainly is possible. Don't let down your guard just yet. Big storms have a strange habit of modifying the near storm environment, creating their own steering currents. From there, there are really three thoughts...1) a SW turn completely missing the trof...(AVN today, yesterday)...I'm flatly thinking this is not a correct solution, and my personal forecast discounts this almost completely. 2) Slippping beneath the trof and slowly meandering NW towards TX, with a possible late recurvature to the NE...maybe...about 45% on this one in my mind. 3) Isadore says to heck with the trof and blows north to the northern Gulf Coast (GFDL and )...55% prob in my mind...not because of the , but because of the , one of the most underrated model suites out there...has performed quite respectably so far, and has been consistant with this type motion for the last few runs.
My (very early) call? Between New Orleans and Destin by Monday night. Your mileage, however and as always, may vary.
OK...grill me to death now!
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Jason Kelley
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Justin..This is the only storm this year worth this much discussion. Everything else has been pretty much eaten up by Mother Nature...LOL
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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storm has deepened but still hasnt stopped stair-stepping nnw. still no rapid intensification.. convection was concentrated earlier, but weakened and is currently reforming. once pressures get below about 994mb the storm should have a strong enough center to keep the convection focused and the intensification steady to rapid. as the does.. expect the stair stepping to stop and a nw track to take hold. late in the forecast period the hurricane should be at least what the predicts, but more likely stronger. after a certain point the outflow from the hurricane will begin to affect the environment around it so strongly that models probably dont have a fix on their strength.. the stall to west option is probably overdone.
i will of course keep updating this as i go along.. not a true ballsy forecast.. but my thoughts are that the storm will be very close to dry tortugas on saturday evening, probably about 75-100 miles west or northwest of the forecast position. expected intensity 125mph/950mb... deepening, and moving slowly nw.
my idea is that there is an unknown lurker variable that models havent decoded yet... i think that there will probably be some kind of pulse of energy from the eastern pacific, or maybe a little disturbance carried under the big amplification that slides by.. and keeps isidore moving more north than west. there may be stalls and jogs westward, but nothing, say, like the recent avn and runs that have the storm going to the bay of campeche. at some point i do expect isidore to be a category four, with winds 140-150mph.
not willing to go any further than that.
well, noticed something. nothing seems to work better at deflecting hurricanes than hype. the more we get on and talk about the terrible scenarios that could possibly unfold, the more likely they are to hit some third world country or weaken to a mediocre system prior to landfall. so actually i encourage as many calls as possible to hometowns, which seems to be the best protection against them getting hit. you people in mobile and houston who want to think every storm is coming at them know who you are.. call it to ya, thats the best protection money cant buy.
i'd call this one to landfall at st. marks as a 160kt cane but am kinda hoping to miss some school next week and want a drunk senseless hurricane party, so i hereby deem the coastline from cedar key to port st. joe as having a 0% chance of landfall. nope, nothing will EVER go there..
HF tallahassee, fl 2316z18september
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