Anonymous
Unregistered
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miami get to the store get the boards get the beer rest of the gulf thank the wish casters it sounds like some people want this thing to hit them this is going to be a big storm next week some people may be in a tint or not here at all one went east one went west one went north one went south hell one went to the moon every at 7.00 mars just dont no is the point this is going to be a bad storm real bad pray not your good luck everyone keep up the good work
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Jason,
I am glad to see a 'real' meterologist actually take a stand in public  I am also glad to see WHY you believe what you are (albeit tenatively) forecasting. Models are tools, nothing more and I am always distressed when TV (especially) forecasters mollify the public with platitudes based upon most often wrong models. I don't wish *any* storm knocking upon your door, but I am not willing to rule out any given city in Florida being affected by this storm just yet.
As you pointed out, and I observed earlier, this storm is north and east of almost all of the predictions by the and the models, and can easily, given it's current S of Florida location, reach any part of this state. I stopped believing in wishcasting when I wished Camille would miss Biloxi....it did, but not by enough to prevent major damage....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Justin in Miami
Unregistered
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Frank....Yikes...if that is true..that track would be the worst for the Big Bend area. The east side of the storm would push water way into Wachula County.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm gonna throw out one alternate possibility that I am beginning to find increasingly likely given the fact that Isidore is "obsessed" with the NNW motion. Here it goes:
Isidore keeps moving NNW overnight, strenthening slowly. Moves quite a bit further east than forecast says (near central Cuba) and weakens some overland. After this, it moves slowly NNW or N along or very near Florida West Coast. Does this as a category one or maybe borderline category two if the landmasses are nice to Izzy.
Heck, it's just a possbility. is either going to live by their forecast or die by it.
Kevin
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If I'm reading these posts correctly, it looks like it is everyone in FLORIDA that seems to be shooting off their mouths about how this storm was going towards them. In fact everyone in FLORIDA was running at the mouth about how the models were all over this thing coming their way. They seemed to be believing those models then. Now that the models have shifted a little west and they are saying FLORIDA is not the target all in FLORIDA suddenly have a problem with the models.Seems to me that all of you in FLORIDA are the BIGGEST wishcasters on this site. With all the posts from FLORIDIANS on how this storm was most certainly going to FLORIDA, than going by your little comment about the greatest defense against these systems is wishcasting, than I would say FLORIDA is in the clear. What's up????????
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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eye is developing near 19.3 lat. moving north.
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Justin in Miami
Unregistered
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Jason Kelly: What are you telling your viewers/listeners?
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Well Shawn, didn't you say that Isidore is a western GOMEX storm or bust? I don't mean to cut you down or anything but you seem to wish every damn storm towards Texas. Sure, maybe HF's 160 knot St. Marks landfall is overdone, but he is just throwing out a possibility.
My minimal cane possibility actually looks pretty feasable at this time. However, I am still favoring the forecast over my other possibility.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I've been reading the posts and I've seen some comparisons of this system to being another Camille.... I was in Camille, up to 5 feet of stinking muddy nasty storm surge in by house... I live on the beach in Biloxi Ms on Hwy 90. The last storm to impact our area was Georges on Sept 30, 1998... so its certainly possible for a system to get to the northern GOM at this time of the year... It's all about timing ... most of the weather gurus in the area are saying the front will not be that strong and will not affect the system... Heck, reading all the posts it looks like it might not even need a front to go north and affect FL... time will tell...
I don't know where this storm will go... TX to Fl seems reasonable.... If I were to pick a spot the Fl panhandle seems like a reasonable spot... Pen to PC... some models pick the MS coast so that pretty much guarantees our safety from the system...
But it's pretty safe for me to say that this will be NO CAMILLE when it impacts land..... the atmosheric conditions for a hurricane to reach Camille status 200+ mile winds is a rare pheomonom indeed, probably once in a life time or for that matter every 100 years or so... maybe it might reach major hurricane status... hopefully not, but certainly something plausable... but Camille.... I think NOT... Am I worried? Heck no, cause I've been through one, if not the most powerful storms of all time
I've seen 200+ mph winds and 22 feet tidal surges.... and survived...... if it comes .. it comes... do I want it here?
HELL NO.....
But know this, if this thing does reach major hurricane status, I feel sorry for the area near and east of the center... cause if you've never been in one... you just don't have ANY IDEA what you are getting into.... For the non-believers it will make you find religion real fast.....
Frank P
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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look at 19.3 lat.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Here's the deal Shawn. I just stated that no one is out of the threat zone yet, and I'm from Florida. I, like most people in this forum, enjoy hearing everyones "opinion" about where they think this storm is gonna go. If everyone started to write FLORIDA off now, that'll be where it'll go. Just like if we were to write off TEXAS. Everyone has there opinion, so let's just stick together and pray that we're all wrong, and nobody gets hit...I really like that. 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Am I missing something? All of a sudden there is all this talk about people wishcasting! I've read all of the post since I got home and haven't read anything to those effects!
SO WHATS UP? 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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1) If you don't have a hurricane kit made up yet, now is a good time to get your non-perishables together, just in case.
2) Reasonably sure we will have a hurricane in the Gulf in 72 hours.
3) From there be alert...we do have some indications that Isidore could head our way, but several more that don't. It's not time to worry yet, but it is definately time to be paying close attention to developments. Not time to change plans, or start boarding up. but it is time to make sure that you have things in order, as you should throughout hurricane season.
As I told my general manager today "It's not time for you to worry...I'll TELL you when to worry!"
And, no....I am not making my above predictiion of landfall on the air yet, it's too early...but I did use the same forecast reasoning (discounting the SW track...weighting the other two ideas) on the air, in a somewhat more brief fashion.
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn dont get soooo upset!1st of all if you want a cat.-2 or 3 storm to hit you,then by all means you can have it!!! I dont think the people in Fla. are wish casting--i think we are all very concerned!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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yes we are.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I don't see this storm going over the western tip of Cuba. Almost have to start moving WNW. Central Cuba has warnings up now. North Florida I think.
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Voluisa Mike
Unregistered
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Look at the 1700 HR forecast track, then at the 2000 hour position. I bet the 2300 forecast track will shift back to the right...
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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When I said it would be a western gulf problem I said that because I don't jump on the models like everyone else does. I go by hunches and what has happened in the past. Hell, everyone was all over about how this thing was going to hit Florida before it even became anything. If the models say it's going to Florida than all those in Florida think that it is now written in stone that Florida it will be. I'm smart enough to know that models will always jump on a trough picking a system up when things first get started. I have my own way of predicting where these things will go..... sometimes it is wrong, but sometimes it is right. At least I have enough guts to go out on my own and not hide behind models.If you want to bash me for being to honest about my opinions than go right ahead. BUT, there is NO ONE on this site who should have the nerve to bash me about wishcasting or anything else for that matter. I could go through almost everyone of these posts on this thread and see where someone said " it looks like it is forming an eye" or " Are my eyes playing tricks on me or do I see a movement to the north." That little blip to the nrth means it is certainly coming to Florida. The tracks better all shift back to the east now because for one hour it wobbled to the north. Give me a break. Also, what happened to trusting in the forecasts that the puts out. I got it, that only applies when the says that the storm is headed towards Florida. When they say that it is time to go and get those supplies. How fickle can you get?
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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forcast path will be changed at 11. lyons on weather channel is now saying he thinks it will get closer to trof. than earlier thinking. because of faster motion.
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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i have been reading and posting on this board for two years now. shawn we don't need this soap opera right now. you truly are the ultimate wish-caster here. believe it or not you do the same thing. wobble...must be going north...wobble...it's coming to texas. just chill and lets get back to the topic at hand...Izzy.
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