Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Shawn, If I lived in Key West, I wouldn't be making any boating plans in the near future.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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More easterly...MUCH more...
Check it out...
18z ...
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Here's another example. Steve Lyons says that it will be picked up by the trough and people are going to go with that. Why? Because it would mean Florida is now in the path. Yet, I thought I remember posts on here, many of them to be exact, that were talking about how Mr. Lyons was awful. HMMMMMMMMMM! I guess as long as it is in your favor than go with it.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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shawn your the one causing trouble in here, i go by what i see not what a computer shows.
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John C
Unregistered
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Easy does it!
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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WOW!!!! Let's start getting excited about these models again, FLORIDIANS. They are started to switch in your favor. GOODY!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn-Shawn-shawn--were not playing a football game here--were talking about loss of Llives & Property!! Please dont get to upset at us FLORIDIANS for being concerned!!!!
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bsnyder
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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Jason,
If that scenario in your link holds true, how many people would end up having to be evacuated along the west coast of Florida? It would be a nightmare!!
Thanks for all the great information on this site! Keeping my fingers crossed that Izzy stays far, far away from us in Tampa!
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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jason thats scary, thats what ive been thinkin.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Jason
Is that turn at about 102 h on the new run where theoretically the trough would pick Izzy and stir him nw?
Shawn it just seems like MORE people are hyping Florida or Eastern Gulf b/c more of the posters are from those areas.
Its human nature to Ooh And Awe at the possibilities of a storm heading in your direction . And yes to some extent emotions play a role in what people post. Some may, wether they are conciously or not, "wishcast" .
Its kinda like the wrecks on nascar. You love to see them but hate when someone gets hurt.
Not knocing ya, just sit back and watch the fun of trying to figure out what Izzy will do. Thats what its all about
Troy
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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this aint a game its life and death shawn. chill out.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Looks like at that point the trof "releases" Izzy a bit as it is moving away, but inertia and the flow pattern continue a northerly motion...
Now, I'm not saying I'm agreeing with this track...in fact I don't...I posted it for two reasons...
1) Considerable uncertainty is there, and can be expected for quite a while and...
2) To get under Shawn's skin a bit. 
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Oh no. My brither is down from Ohio and we are planning on going to my sister's beach house on Anna Maria on Friday night. I don't want to get caught in an evacuation nightmare. Where is this thing going, for God's sake?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Troy2,
Very well said! Lots of truth in what you just said. Hey this is fun thats why we are here.
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Gofins13
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
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Hey---Jason--Thanks a LOT for all of the GREAT input!! The Shift to the East--what does that mean for us FLORIDIANS
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Here's the problem. You all's posts don't sound like you are concerned; they sound like you are EXCITED because it looks like it is coming your way. I get it if you are concerned, but make your posts seem like it and not like you are going to throw a party or something. The stronger that it looks like this thing could become leads ya'll to seem more excited, NOT CONCERNED, on each post after that. I've always said that I would like to go through another CAT 1 hurricane, but that is as strong as I want. If there was a CAT 3 coming at us here in Texas I would be getting the you know what out of here. I would certainly be scared to death of losing evrything, which I don't have much to start with, and fearful of what could happen to those even closer to the coast than I am. So, NO,NO,NO I do not want this thing here if it does get to be a major hurricane. Actually, I would rather it somehow find its way out into the open Atlantic and go on its merry way. I just get tired of everyone jumping on my case when I go out on a limb about something, but never want to give me some sort of credit when one of my predictions actually comes true. Just be fair about the whole thing. I certainly give credit where credit is due. Heck, I even give Joe B. credit when he deserves it and I'm certainly not one of his biggest fans.
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Everybody STOP, lets play nice! 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes this is further to the right of the previous , but is the start of a trend or "honing" in? It's probably too early yet, and I said earlier this will cahnge 10 times before Friday. Everyone from Texas to Tampa needs to monitor this. I've seen the perform abysmally in the past. BTW, Meto, what did base their reasoning on (Lyons)?? The models in the last run showed the the "trough was not shown as sharp as it did earlier. Was that a bogus run?? This is wide open folks. Yes, I'm in Florida, but we don't know where this is going yet. I'm concerned cause it's quite close to Cuba. Things will change again and again 'til Friday. Then we should have a better idea. I expect it the unexpected, which in the end rarely ever happens. Cheers!! Steve H.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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(Boy, is my post count going up or what?? )
All of us are wishcasters. ALL of us. Those of us born with an innate love for the weather have that partcular affliction. Professional mets are the worst wishcasters you can imagine. We spend a good portion of our lives studying the processes that make weather what it is, and we want to observe it, first hand...we can't help ourselves.
However, there is also the human side to all of us. I have no desire to see people displaced from their homes, or to lose a life to a weather system...it absolutely horrifies me. My 2nd year of professional forecasting, a tornadic event occured in my viewing area which caused the loss of 2 lives. I was in a serious state of depression for a while after that...wonderin what I did wrong...blaming myself for not getting the word out more accurately. A very dear friend of mine pointed out that I probably saved a few lives, and that you can't save everyone. That made a huge impact on me, and still drives me to this day...the ability to possibly prevent the loss of life.
So how does one deal with the inate desire to wishcast? Here is what I do...I spend more time looking for reasons why a storm WON'T affect my area as to reasons why it will. Poke holes in your own forecasts....don't be afraid to fail. Follow up your forecasts and find out what you did wrong...post analysis is a powerful tool, because we ALL have certain tendencies which creep into our own personal forecast process. Learn from your mistakes...and don't be afraid to stick your neck out now and then...when you are confident.
I'm a wishcaster...and I probably always will be...but it doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing.
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Jason Kelley
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I know I'm not doing any wishcasting. Just wishing it will go away from Florida. I work for an insurance company and a storm like Izzy could take away my job in the long run. I'm just a paranoid skeptic! 
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Jim
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