Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
looks like we have a developing la nina SSTs
When I last checked I didn't see any models predicting a la nina? Did they change since then? It looks transitional if you ask me, we had a similar event happen in the winter.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just looked at models here and MM5 picking up on 92L, as we say this time of the year, persistance is key, and its persisting so far. SST Anomalies map may be better for picking out La Nina.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion suggests neutral conditions expected during the northern hemisphere summer.
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HURRICANESRULE
Unregistered
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There appears to be a very well defined area of spin near the northwest coast of Jamaica. Cented near 18.5/78 west. Very interesting.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A few notes...
1) La Nina is a very dry pattern for Florida. The last well-defined La Nina event was coincident with the two years of drought and summertime fires across Florida in 1998 and 1999. El Nino events tend to be a bit wetter, but La Nina events are very dry through the first half of the summer.
2) There's still no circulation associated with 92L, at least not on the NW side of Jamaica. This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed only straight-line winds out of the east-southeast across the region. There is a weak area of low pressure near 14.5 N, 78 W, but that is well south of Jamaica and well-removed from any convection. It's more likely a representation of the persistent area of low pressure across the region over the past couple-few weeks than anything else.
3) While SST anomalies are useful in looking at events, you have to look below the surface and at other parameters as well. While I don't have the complete report to post, the diagnostic center at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that there are still a combination of El Nino and neutral signals out there, with the persistence of the neutral signals likely signifying the maintenance of neutral conditions for the foreseeable future. It's been a weird pattern this year in regards to the EPac SST anomalies, but beyond that, the other signals suggest El Nino or neutrality.
With regards to 92L, there's still a sizeable upper-level low just west of the storm, with shear tendencies increasing in that region. The convection is almost solely a result on strong divergence aloft over the region forced by the upper low to its west. There is some low-level vorticity there, hinting that something might work its way down to the surface, but nothing yet. hints at a weak low moving into the NW Caribbean, but does nothing with it; the development towards its north and east appears to be mostly unrelated. The 18Z run of the is the only one out there that really does a lot with this system, and while it cannot be discounted, I wonder if they've tried changing the tropical physics with the model around this year, since it's tried developing a lot of things lately...correctly and incorrectly. But that's just me thinking out loud.
All in all -- a nice impressive bout of convection associated with 92L, likely to bring a lot of rain to Jamaica and Hispaniola, but not a tropical cyclone.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Clark...et al
not to make light of this situation...i agree with everything you have laid out (not that i'd know much better anyway), but this system is eerily similar to the unnamed TS from last may and jeanne both of which killed 3,000 haitians...do you foresee this posing any similar dangers to that half of hispaniola???
that island, and haiti in particular, have taken quite a beating the past two seasons...i wish there were better "warning" systems to aid those residents
unless and untill there is a recon mission, i'd say 92L is a nice invest awaiting passage to the great beyond and towards europe down the road
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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what's all this talk about la nina? that's a shot of upwelling near the galapagos, if that's what's being discussed... it happens from time to time. the tropical pacific has been staying neutral to weak warm.. if la nina is trying to come on, going hard negative every couple of weeks to a month and staying there for extended periods is keeping it well in check. there are still more positive anomalies in the 1/2 region than negatives, and the 3/4 is and has been pretty much positive since this time last year. rabbit made comments on past years that may have some ancillary bearing on the topic, as to what sort of year we're in anyway. i reckon it's more or less like every year since 1995 (save 1997).. lots of atlantic action, underwhelming pacific activity.
other stuff... speaking of underwhelming, 92L is just that. there's one of those next-to-the convection sort of hairpin vorticity maxes that crosses jamaica today.. further east in the heavy convection there doesn't seem to be any further organization. this setup does not bode for much development unless the hairpin gets into the convection.. a possible window for this is tomorrow as the the upper trough develops a meander in the sw caribbean and the diffluence on its northeast flank increases. the chances of development still aren't doing more than skipping across the pond.. this duck hasn't taken wing by any means. if it does we can name it bret.
the BOC (burn out the day.. heheh) flareup today has been showing intermittently on globals for days, but surprised me a little.. some version of it has been present at least. with the upper trough forecast to dig into the east going into next week.. any disturbance in that region would get a window for development ahead of the amplification.. if anything significant could take shape that is. there isn't a convincing argument for this, but if disturbed weather keeps persisting in the area, or say, near the yucatan... that could change things. as the trough digs some energy is forecast to feed up ahead of it early next week, so we'll have to see what collects over there during the next few.
east atlantic.. blah. the 18Z run spits another phantom off the coast near the end of the month. we've seen the odd june/july depression out of that part of the world over the last five years or so (2000, 2001, 2003). the recent wave isn't doing much, but as the next month or two goes by i wouldn't be surprised if some more substantial features materialize down there. has been getting better at spotting trouble...
that's much adieu about little. bret is on layover or perhaps will arrive on a later flight, so we're just wave-mongering a little. the innocent, i don't really believe this type. hopefully haiti isn't getting drenched too bad... after the 2004 events they should be all the more wary of slow moving, systems. ridge in the east is giving way, but not before it bakes this part of the country for a day or two. today was very hot here, and not much rain around for the first time in over two weeks. tomorrow should be a scorcher, the hottest of the year so far. summer arrives with a vengeance, if only for a brief visit.
HF 0415z15june
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Phil -- it definitely could have a similar effect, depending on how long it stays there. That's a very mountainous island and with poor living conditions across most of it, rainfall and mudslides could be torrential. Hopefully it doesn't stick around long enough to pose such a problem, but unless the pattern shifts, it very well might stick.
By downplaying the potential development of 92L, though, I don't mean to downplay its impacts, which can be (and likely are) very real to those in Jamaica and on Hispaniola. Whatever is there is not as well organized as last year's May event, but we've seen how dying tropical cyclones can dump massive amounts of rainfall in the S.E. US -- doesn't necessarily have to be organized to rain.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Any thoughts to the area around Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Current Weather Conditions:
Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba
(MUCL) 21-37N 081-33W
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Conditions at Jun 14, 2005 - 05:54 PM EDTJun 14, 2005 - 04:54 PM CDTJun 14, 2005 - 03:54 PM MDTJun 14, 2005 - 02:54 PM PDTJun 14, 2005 - 01:54 PM ADTJun 14, 2005 - 12:54 PM HDT
2005.06.14 2154 UTC
Wind from the SSE (160 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 93.4 F (34.1 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCL.html
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Convection looking pretty persistent:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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USAFR Hurricane Hunters are headed into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday to investigate a suspect area, which has been hinted at by modelling for the last few days...might want to shift at least some of your focus further west...
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JK...do you think will proclaim this area 93L today?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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I was just checking recon schedule at and saw the same thing. hmmmm
Liz
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
JK...do you think will proclaim this area 93L today?
Likely, esp since recon is planned...need a bit more organized convection going, but I suspect that and are talking already.
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Jason Kelley
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I've read earlier that this system was moving inland into Mexico. So this development surprised me.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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More than likely it will move into Mexico and be gone, but BOC systems don't always behave as they are supposed to, and there are already hints of a circulation down there...I think that this is mostly a preventative move anyway, and has a good chance of getting cancelled...it's kind of a just in case type of deal.
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Jason Kelley
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Phil here is the answer to your question.Interesting that they are focusing down there as the wave gets into Mexico unless a piece stays as the BOC.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks Luis...i figgered if they were thinking about sending down recon, they'd prolly need to have "something" (as in 93L) to investigate...like JK said, i think this is more of a precautionary measure than anything else, but i guess we'll know more tomorrow...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I complained about all the rain we had for what seemed like two weeks straight but now that the clouds are away the heat is back and it has been hot as heck the last three days. It seems to be too hot to stand out side for more than five minutes.
Edited by Katie (Wed Jun 15 2005 02:16 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I thought 93L was forecast to move inland over Mexico. at 11:30 says TC formation is not likely due to proximity to land, but recon schedule flight two says Cyclone. Can't find the tropical model plots for this one yet, i guess they are not out.
Tampico Mexico Radar
Alvarado Mexico Radar
Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Jun 15 2005 02:24 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That area (92L?) looks like it's breaking apart, but still viable. It appeasr to be in an unfriendly environment for development as seen on the sat imagery.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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