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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Bret [Re: Unregistered User]
      #37286 - Thu Jun 16 2005 08:24 PM

Don't think we will see much, upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development. Big t-storm here, producing strong wind gusts, making Lake look like an angry ocean, off to survey the situation, from inside of course.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Bret [Re: Unregistered User]
      #37288 - Thu Jun 16 2005 08:33 PM

Quote:

Teh disturbance east of the Bahamas is more than a trough or a transitory low, has been developing all day. 91L is the main contender for Bret in the near future.

MM



You must mean 88L. They already open it up as an investigation. 91L was Arlene.

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Bret [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #37289 - Thu Jun 16 2005 08:37 PM

Clark is likely going to clear this up in a second, but there are no invests, other than 93L, which is inland at this time.

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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: Bret [Re: Jamiewx]
      #37290 - Thu Jun 16 2005 08:40 PM

Referring to it as 91L because that was the former designation.

And yes, you are right---actually it was 92L, wasn't it. Anyway......

MM

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Bret [Re: Unregistered User]
      #37291 - Thu Jun 16 2005 08:42 PM

The former 92L -- I think you mean 92L, as 91L was an upper-low in the central Atlantic, while 93L is the Bay of Campeche activity -- is associated with an upper-level low near Jamaica. No low-level circulation to speak of, winds aren't all that strong, and the convection is driven in much the same way as it has been the past 3-4 days: by divergent upper-level winds near the trough, not unlike what you sometimes see over land during spring & fall. All of it is weakening, however, and beginning to lift out to the northeast. Neither this area of convection or the signature east of the Bahamas -- which is associated with a slightly larger upper-air low -- are all that impressive other than for the rain they have or may bring to Hispaniola.

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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Bret [Re: Clark]
      #37292 - Thu Jun 16 2005 09:07 PM

Yes, I am referring to the one east of the Bahamas. And, it seems to be coming to the surface....

MM

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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Bret [Re: Clark]
      #37293 - Thu Jun 16 2005 09:25 PM

NOT an upper low- from 1730 TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

Bret in the works...

MM

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Bret [Re: MapMaster]
      #37294 - Thu Jun 16 2005 09:38 PM

I'll take more notice of it when an invest is up, the wind shear forecast shows more favorable conditions, and when it has more support in forecast models.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Bret [Re: Jamiewx]
      #37295 - Thu Jun 16 2005 09:56 PM

hummmmmmm I'm getting a 88L well now it's a NONAME AL882005 in the 1800Z model runs with winds at 35k but the NHC isn't looking at it and funny I cant see it on the sat. I would't think this is a test run to mess people up who is running the models. Any sugestions as why they are running this?

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Bret [Re: MapMaster]
      #37296 - Thu Jun 16 2005 10:11 PM

It doesn't mean, MM, that it is not associated with an upper-low. Look at the water vapor imagery; you'll see what I mean. Also, "an area of disturbed weather" does not imply a low-level circulation or even a surface feature...just that something is there. There *might* be a low-level circulation trying to form, but it is directly connected to that upper-low, the convection is being forced by diverging winds aloft, and the only model that picks up on such development -- the Air Force MM5 -- has its development as a very weak, cold core system.

Getting Bret out of that would have to come quick, as the waters get cool in a hurry, and anythnig that happens there wouldn't be quick. Shear isn't favorable, either, though not necessarily horrible. The upper low it is associated with -- just like the last one -- is the main player. It's what is forcing this the convection, really.

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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Bret [Re: Clark]
      #37297 - Thu Jun 16 2005 10:21 PM

coupla things...maybe clark can clear up MY confusion

i never heard of a storm getting a classification of "88L"...that's not to say it's not possible, i just thought they were all in the 90s...

second...while i can't work the dreaded rabbit voodoo hex (dammit), i can pretty much say the remains of 92L aint gonna be bret...

we got lots of small distrubances a poppin' all over the place, but i wouldn't bet on 2 named june storms from anything that's out there now...(or should i say, one more named storm, making 2 total).

clark, perhaps you can elaborate/clarify???

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Bret [Re: LI Phil]
      #37298 - Thu Jun 16 2005 10:53 PM

Yea and maybe Clark can look thru this and see what and why.
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -24, 232N, 886W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -18, 237N, 877W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -12, 241N, 868W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -6, 246N, 860W, 35, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 12, 257N, 833W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 24, 261N, 813W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 36, 268N, 791W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 48, 283N, 766W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 60, 301N, 744W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 72, 326N, 718W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 84, 357N, 689W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 96, 380N, 650W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 108, 391N, 610W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 120, 393N, 572W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 12, 257N, 833W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 24, 261N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 36, 268N, 791W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 48, 283N, 766W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 60, 301N, 744W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 72, 326N, 718W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 84, 357N, 689W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 96, 380N, 650W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 108, 391N, 610W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 120, 393N, 572W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 12, 257N, 832W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 24, 260N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 36, 266N, 780W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 48, 283N, 747W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 60, 300N, 725W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 72, 322N, 699W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 12, 240N, 836W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 24, 239N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 36, 252N, 781W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 48, 277N, 748W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 60, 313N, 710W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 72, 354N, 676W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 84, 390N, 626W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 96, 406N, 544W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 108, 406N, 456W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 120, 404N, 387W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 12, 250N, 846W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 24, 250N, 837W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 36, 255N, 819W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 48, 265N, 795W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 60, 283N, 758W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 72, 308N, 721W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 84, 339N, 687W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 96, 363N, 657W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 12, 251N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 24, 247N, 854W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 36, 249N, 852W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 48, 250N, 848W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 60, 251N, 836W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 72, 257N, 824W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 84, 264N, 803W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 96, 277N, 782W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 108, 297N, 759W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 120, 320N, 733W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 12, 259N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 24, 269N, 818W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 36, 279N, 804W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 48, 290N, 790W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 72, 313N, 763W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 12, 260N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 24, 271N, 820W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 36, 284N, 807W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 48, 294N, 798W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 60, 307N, 792W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 72, 319N, 787W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 84, 333N, 776W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 96, 342N, 765W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 108, 357N, 757W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 120, 369N, 747W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 24, 250N, 837W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 48, 265N, 795W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 60, 283N, 758W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 72, 308N, 721W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 84, 339N, 687W, 24, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 96, 363N, 657W, 19, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 24, 250N, 837W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 48, 265N, 795W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 60, 283N, 758W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 72, 308N, 721W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 84, 339N, 687W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 96, 363N, 657W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 12, 254N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 24, 265N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 36, 283N, 785W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 48, 312N, 740W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 60, 351N, 687W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 72, 401N, 631W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 84, 444N, 549W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 0, 0N, 0W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 12, 0N, 0W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 24, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 36, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 48, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 60, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 72, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 84, 0N, 0W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 96, 0N, 0W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 108, 0N, 0W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 120, 0N, 0W, 37, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 12, 0N, 0W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 24, 0N, 0W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 36, 0N, 0W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 48, 0N, 0W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 60, 0N, 0W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 72, 0N, 0W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 24, 250N, 837W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 48, 265N, 795W, 37, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 60, 283N, 758W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 72, 308N, 721W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 84, 339N, 687W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 96, 363N, 657W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 24, 250N, 837W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 48, 265N, 795W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 60, 283N, 758W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 72, 308N, 721W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 84, 339N, 687W, 28, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 96, 363N, 657W, 22, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 108, 377N, 627W, 15, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 12, 259N, 832W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 24, 268N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 36, 277N, 795W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 48, 286N, 777W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 60, 295N, 758W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 72, 304N, 739W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 84, 313N, 720W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 96, 322N, 701W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 108, 332N, 681W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 120, 341N, 662W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Bret [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #37299 - Thu Jun 16 2005 11:47 PM

Ok my bad. I found out this IS a " TEST RUN". They need to do these off season.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Bret [Re: LI Phil]
      #37300 - Fri Jun 17 2005 12:24 AM

I'd never heard of 88L either, but I'm glad they finally denoted it as a test run -- those positions of 25 N and 83 W are pretty darn close to Florida! NRL and FNMOC hadn't picked up on it, though, so I was just going to wait it out and see what happened.

I'd bet on something getting going in early-mid July, but not now. We should be entering an active MJO phase by July, with the first signs of one kicking in the Indian Ocean now. I'm not the guru on that, though -- that's HF -- so I'll leave anything beyond that to him!

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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
say what [Re: Clark]
      #37301 - Fri Jun 17 2005 04:00 AM

i aint no frickin guru. haven't been keeping good tabs on MJO, since it didn't seem to direct 2004 like the previous seasons i kinda quit watching it like a hawk. i'll have to find what monitoring resources are out there right now.. the old cpc graphic didn't work most of the time. been eyeballing SOI and getting secondhand bastardi thoughts.. that's enough to keep some semblance of reason.
our old friend 92L is waving goodbye, flaring some under the ridging in the exit region of that upper trough. it's forcing mechanisms aren't purely tropical as a broad trough covers much of the central atlantic. 93L has lost its battle with land, but the disturbed weather in the region should continue as an upper trough digs sw over the eastern u.s. into the gulf over the weekend. there should be some outflow enhancement for the area... enough to force pressure falls and maintain disturbed weather, while inducing shear on the region as well. the globals are showing low pressure near the southeast, drawing in energy from the nw caribbean... it might have a quasi tropical look to it, whatever comes up over florida into early next week. as for clark's idea about july.. why the hell not, i say. indications are we're entering a hyper-active season.
HF 0457z17june

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
NW caribbean, Again [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37302 - Fri Jun 17 2005 04:17 PM

There is a broad area north and NE of Honduras displaying circulatory motion in the sat imagery. It is producing cloudy conditions and thought it might be the beginning of a disturbance.

Could this be a surface low?

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
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Re: NW caribbean, Again [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #37303 - Fri Jun 17 2005 05:37 PM

All of the low-level flow in that region is out of the south-southeast, around the broader area of low pressure inland between the Bays of Campeche and Tehuantepec. The convective tops, what few there are, are being sheared by the outflow from that region. A trough is approaching from the northwest and should be very near the area shortly. Nothing to really worry about.

Convection is flaring up south of Bermuda again, but that system is decidedly tied to an upper-level low and is not tropical...not to mention jetting out to the north and east.

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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
assembly [Re: Clark]
      #37304 - Fri Jun 17 2005 06:31 PM

i usually only run through GFS runs to keep up to date.. cause it goes many days out in advance. some of the other globals had been more adamant about creating a coastal low near the SE late in the weekend.. GFS finally has it's version.. the upper energy currently generating the mcc diving se over the lower mississippi valley skimming the ne gulf and then briefly deepening as it moves up the se coast. i was thinking more of a tropical connection here, big moisture plume or something.. but not seeing it yet. the caribbean logjam fed into 92L and jetted out.. the weakness in the ridge should reconfigure further west near the yucatan going into next week. the 93L disturbance may have some copycat bad weather in the region in the coming days.. maybe over on the pacific side or in the ne caribbean. if we get anything in the coming days that'll probably be the source region, anyhow. nothing big the models are latching onto at least.
HF 1928z17june

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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
93L Invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37305 - Fri Jun 17 2005 08:07 PM

Navel hurricane research

This is a invest off the coast of mexico tucked in the bay. Any thoughts of its development

Should be Naval Hurricane Research- Right!

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 17 2005 11:40 PM)

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 93L Invest [Re: mysticalmooons]
      #37306 - Fri Jun 17 2005 08:58 PM

That 93L is an old invest and is no longer active. If you go to the link you provided and then click on "Active," it lets you know that there are no active storms...which is true. What was 93L is firmly overland.

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