MikeC
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The normalcy of a quiet June is upon us now, which is a welcome relief. Nothing of immediate to watch. Except for perhaps the hyperactive forecasting model, there really isn't much to watch.
You have to look at the usual suspect areas this time of year, which includes the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Neither of which have much right now. There is weather around the Yucatan, but nothing over water. Right now it's a stretch to consider anything for development at this time.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 19 2005 11:47 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
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That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..
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LadyStorm
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I know this is off topic, but I just wanted to say Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads out there. Dads are great and deserve recognition!!!!
MaryAnn
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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stormchazer
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Quote:
That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..
I could not agree more. I like things like electric, A/C, hot showers and the carport roof aver my head, not strewn across the lawn. 
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Jara
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ticka1
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Quote:
That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..
I noticed the South and east direction too instead of north and west. What is causing this weather pattern?
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GuppieGrouper
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noticed the South and east direction too instead of north and west. What is causing this weather pattern?
I have two guess, one it is a transitional pattern that amateurs would not have even noticed if we had not already had one tropical storm form. 2nd guess is that the earthquakes, Tsunamis, Bombing in Iraq, and environmental shifts that occur normally over the centuries. The media did say that the earth was somehow moved slightly by the tremendous earthquake. But again, the most likely answer is the transitional pattern that occurs this time of year to create the easterly flow.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Benjamin
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Has anyone noticed the swirl in the clouds, resembling a circulation, just off the coast of Merida, Mexico i.e. along 90 west just off the Yucatan? Thunderstorm activicity is limited with this feature, however this is the exact area where the indicates future development.
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MapMaster
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At least a little re: system that might become Bret that fizzled east of Bermuda. At least I only said it was a candidate to become Bret!! No sure things in the tropics, especially this time of year.
Yes, the convection east fo the Yucatan is impressive, but, so far, not organized.
MM
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LI Phil
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Quote:
I know this is off topic, but I just wanted to say Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads out there. Dads are great and deserve recognition!!!!
MaryAnn
Absolutely OFF TOPIC...and guess what...
I'm glad somebody posted it...
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all the dads, granddads & sons...
ima have a catch with my dad today (and yes it's "have a catch" not "play catch")...and hopefully, watch "Field of Dreams" with him...
i'm outta here for a while...father's day ya know...gonna cook some steaks, watch the US Open, and have a catch...
all ya'll have a GREAT DAY! 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lysis
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Happy Fathers Day.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Jun 19 2005 06:19 PM)
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Lucasnfl
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I've noticed it, just nw of Yucatan.
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ticka1
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Happy Father's Day to all the dads here at Flhurricane. Hope you had a great day!
Ticka1
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Storm Cooper
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Thank You Mary Ann, LI Phil, Lysis, ticka 1 and everyone else for your Fathers Day wishes! I hope it has been a great day for all...and for some, it still is 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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rmbjoe1954
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I guess all that disruption will sooner or later feed into Florida.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
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Quote:
That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West...
The weird circulation pattern that you have been seeing this week is due, in part, to a stalled front along the Northern Gulf Coast and a rather large High pressure area over Lower Mexico.
The high is giving a "backwards" movement to the Yucatan Channel area, and at this point 'semi-blocking' anything from moving further north into the GOM.
Several of the models have hinted at an area of rain forming in the Yucatan Peninsula area this week and moving NE toward the W and SW FL coast.
The high pressure will have to break down a little more to allow this. I'm not sure how or if the front/ trough lying across the Northern GOM will play a part in anything that might develop.
Models I saw earlier were just indicating a persistant area of thunderstorms moving toward the NE from Cozumel, MX.
Current imagery from LSU satellites indicates the -24C line extends from Veracruz, MX to the Ft Myers area to the Melbourne area. Areas North of this line are not likely to have thunderstorm formation, due to the dry air in place. ( S.A. Hsu & Melvin F Martin,Jr)
http://antares.csi.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html
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Storm Cooper
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Just to add a little to your post, from the Tally AFD...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE SE U.S. MAIN LIFT & ENERGY WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...WILL
NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP WATER VALUES & INSTABILITY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE FORMATION OVER N FL...BUT
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FACTORS.
OF COURSE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LOW OR TROPICAL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Heather
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Another veer off topic, wanted to wish you guys a Happy Father's Day, too. Hope you all had a great day! Dad's are the best!!
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When it rains, it pours...
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Clark
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GFS is the only model to pick up on anything out there, and the cyclone phase diagrams on it show a hybrid structure becoming more as it approaches shore. I'm going to chalk it up to convective feedback or an overzealous model for now, unless something comes up in another model or in reality to suggest otherwise.
BTW, did you all know that the is only the 6th best global model nowadays? The is best, and models from Japan, UK, and Australia are all better as well. The has been pretty active with developing lows this year...I wonder if they didn't change something around with the model this year. Anyway, there's nothing to worry about out there now.
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danielw
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Thanks Clark and Coop. Sure is nice to have additional commentary.
I've been looking at the various NOAA Centers and Southern FL NWS AFDs.
All of the above mentioned Centers and Offices including the (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch), are aware of the forecasting situation in the SE GOM. All of them are calling it 'model feedback' and are tossing the GOM Low pressure development-out the window.
Most of them do mention precipitation being on the increase for the next day or so.
But theyAre Not looking for any development.
From the Hydrological Prediction Center Discussion edited~danielw
...MID LEVEL TROF/LOW FROM MID ATLC INTO GULF OF MEXICO...
FIRST OF ALL... WILL DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THE BRINGS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FL. THUS FAR THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS FOR SUCH A FEATURE. ALSO...NO MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT OF 09Z SREF AND 00Z/06Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT ANY KIND OF DEFINED SFC LOW PROGRESSING NEWD OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE CONSULT THE TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR UPDATED INFO REGARDING CONDITIONS OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND VICINITY...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 20 2005 01:30 AM)
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Clark
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Danny and all...take a look at this product we have here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/images/current/wspd.movie.gif (at least for the next half-day to day or so; main website is at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/.) That is a plot of the "confidence" of the and its member ensembles with regards to surface wind speeds over the next 7 days. Anywhere where you have progressively darker reds (and even black), you have much less confidence in the overall forecast because all of the members of the ensemble don't agree so well on what will happen (like the end of the HPC discussion in the previous post).
Note in the 2-4 day time frame a large bulls-eye coming out of the Caribbean up into Florida, as depicted with a low-pressure system in some recent runs of the operational . This shows that there is very little confidence in the forecast the operational model put out because the member ensembles can't agree on what will happen. So, needless to say, it's something to pay attention to in case it does actually come to fruition...but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.
Thanks. Edited url for confidence link
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 20 2005 03:40 AM)
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