HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook for 11:30 EDT today, indicates that there is some interest in the complex system evolving near the Bahamas.
There isn't a clear cut surface low, which would indicate tropical development; but the thunderstorms and turning in the atmosphere are becoming more pronounced.
This is referred to as Invest 94L, the in-and-out sort of disturbance which has been working its way north out of the Caribbean. It isn't purely tropical, as it consists of wave energy being drawn up around the upper low that is has hooked around Southern Florida.
Convection triggered on the flank of the low, the northward moving wave energy, and low level convergence from the easterly flow around the ridge to the north are keeping it an active, stormy area.
This area has a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center has a tentative hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft flight scheduled for off the North Florida and Georgia coasts tomorrow.
Since the system is complex and of hybrid nature, will be hesitant to classify it, so the chances of seeing a named system aren't what I'd call high. Nevertheless the weather along the North Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coasts should be rainy and breezy as the system approaches Saturday and Sunday. Given more time, perhaps three days I'd almost guarantee a named tropical system, but it doesn't have that long.
Elsewhere a small disturbance continues in the Western Caribbean, in a marginal development environment. The conditions there should improve as the upper trough begins to lift out and back away to the north. With a tropical wave moving through there is at least a passing interest for this area.
This disturbed weather should continue west and northwest and may be of interest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. However, what forecast model support that did exist for it becoming active has become more attuned to Eastern Pacific development. It will also be close to or over land at times. Keep an eye on it anyway.
HF 1647z24june
Event Related Links:
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Static Model Plot of Wave near the Bahamas (94L) from South Florida Water management District
Animated Model Plot of Caribbean Disurbance (94L)
Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Jun 24 2005 04:17 PM)
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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 Thanks for the new Thread - - a lot of folks now coming by the desk wanting to know what's up for the weekend - - I book vacations in Orlando - - I'm no MET, but everyone remembers last year and the info I was able to provide thanks to all of you - - here we go again
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Question: as that area of disturbed weather makes it's way towards N. Florida/S. Georgia, will the rain become heavier here in central Florida (inland) as it makes it's way there or will it stay a little drier? We're not getting much right now, just wondering if that will change. Also, is there any possiblility that it could make it inland further south in Florida?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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The way it looks right now, most of the moisture is off the coast and to the south of Cent. Fl. As the ULL keeps pinwheeling n/nw it will draw more of that moisture towards Fl. and produce showers. Eventually though it will move far enough north to where the showers aren't affecting Fl. as much, probably starting on Sunday.
Edit-The 2pm Trop. Disc. answered your question about the rain Colleen:
"THE UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY SPREADING DRY AIR IN FROM THE W OVER S FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS WHICH HAS KEPT THE HEAVIEST TSTMS MAINLY TO THE E OVER OPEN WATERS. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS WILL APPROACH AND SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON SAT...AND THEN A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA ON SUN AND MON AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS N."
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Jun 24 2005 05:59 PM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Humidity is much like the start of Charlie last year in Central Florida - wAYYY up there.. almost feels like a sauna today
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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This is just before the info about the rain you posted...seems this is more noteworthy (from the 205pm TWD):
THERE APPEAR TO BE
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD
MASS AND SEVERAL OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
AND CANADIAN...CONSOLIDATE THESE INTO A SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND MOVE IT NW TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND
RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS IN THE VICINITY
FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Somebody else is now interested 
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 24 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUN 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-028
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF JACKSONVILLE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 25/1530Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 30.0N 78.0W D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Band out this measured 66 and 39 knots last 2 @ 7000 ft out of N and NNE .
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Satellite pics and radar suggest one of the surface lows may be developing right along the Florida East Coast near Melbourne Wind direction on the west coast from the NNE and light may also be an indicator of such a forming low.
If so it is much closer to the coast than anticipated.
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doug
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Right, it looks to be just north of Mel, E of Cocoa. Several new cells popping up also over the last 20-30 min's
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Fri Jun 24 2005 07:26 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX FEATURE, AS THERE IS CLEARLY A CIRCULATION, BROADER AND SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA WHICH THE SAT PICS SUGGEST IS AN UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE FLOW. HOWEVER THE SUGGESTION OF A LOW FORMING ON THE EAST COAST NEAR MELBOURNE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MORE RADAR EVIDENCE NOW THAN AN HOUR AGO.
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doug
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Looks like now Belle Glade and Lake Placid possibly getting some Hail.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Oh great, my parents live in LP. I just hope it doesn't come with strong gusts. Don't need to loose the nursery now.
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Hmm? What is the source of this information??
MM
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well looks like #2 may form before the end of month. Tropical Cyclone Marine forecast of possible devp.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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These are current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Florida issued by the National Weather Service. These are generally updated every 2 minutes or so. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/alerts/fl.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Fri Jun 24 2005 08:17 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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StormCoop, nice timing on the poll/post.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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These are the June or earlier "B" named storms occuring since the naming of storms began.
Here all all "Second storm of the season" tracks, which would have been "B" storms since 1851:
Dates removed for clarity-
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Audrey, 1954, Cat 4...
MM
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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I believe there was a STS before that....
MM
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