MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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7:30PM update
Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Bay of Campeche.
6PM update
Tropical Depression Two forms in Bay of Campeche, it is expected to make landfall into Mexico. We'll be watching. It has a very good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bret before landfall.
Original Update
The area to watch this week is in the Bay of Campeche, in the southwestern Gulf. This area has a chance to develop, but it is very close to land and will likely landfall on the Mexican coast before it can gain too much strength.
The conditions at it are good for development, so it will likely develop if it can stay over water long enough . Those along that part of the Mexican coastline will very likely have to deal with depression or weak tropical storm level conditions.
Other than that, there isn't all that much going on this week, and I hope it stays that way for a good while. But it's interesting to look at the waves off Africa, but this time of year I don't expect much from them.
The area in the Bay of Campeche likely to head into Mexico
Dvorak T-Numbers for here support that as well.
Event Related Links:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Storm Bret
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Bret
New Recon Decoder
Nice Color Satellite Image of the storm area
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hurricah
Unregistered
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It has 1.5/1.5 t numbers. In has most of the buoys showing a cirualtion. Can we say that it has a pretty darn good chance of developing.
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LarryG
Unregistered
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Will it definitely stay away from the US/Florida, if it does develop?
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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It would be nice if it would stay away from US/Florida.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey Mike,
What are your thoughts of the wave @ 12 N, approaching 60 W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Looks like it cause trouble in the next few days.
Looking at the Visiable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
There might be some circulation in there. 
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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As I said, I admit it when I am wrong...and claim it when I am right!! 
As observed the other day (and there were many naysayers), BOC is the current spot where development is likely...it may not make it due to land proximity, but, good chance for a depression (if it isn't already) and maybe Bret....close to where the last Bret (Cat4 that hit Tx) was...
MM
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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You still dislike my ideas on a possible mid-grade tropical storm coming out of the southern end of the wave axis that spawned 94L?  . Like Superhero Lois Cane used to always say, sometimes systems primed for development just have that look. There's a good shot today we can see some feeding back and development. The has acknowledged as much as ridging builds in overtop. This still looks like a central Mexican coast type of landfall, but I'd be paying at least casual attention if I were down there in South Padre or Brownsville just to be on the safe side. Time is working against serious development, so this is most likely just a rainmaker.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Hey Mike,
What are your thoughts of the wave @ 12 N, approaching 60 W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Looks like it cause trouble in the next few days.
Looking at the Visiable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
There might be some circulation in there.
True, but ahead it's not looking all that hot. I don't think that one will do anything right now. The waves off africa are too early. The BOC is the only thing going on the first half of the week.
The BOC storm is a pretty sure thing to affect Mexico, and maybe just the southernmost part of Texas with rains. Right now I wouldn't even think it could go anywhere else. Still worth watching though.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Visible imagery suggests some sort of circulation, with banding features now associated with the disturbance. Doesnt look like it isa going ot be classified just yet though, and given its proximity to land, it may not get a shot. Probably go the same way as the unclassified system along the central Atlantic coast the other day.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the 11:30 is out, and is giving us those typical lines of 'significant development is not expected' for the BOC system. this is, of course, since the system is close to land. no recon scheduled either, so the only way this thing will get a name is if a surface stations report strong enough winds. highest i've seen thus far has been 20kt. it does seem to be keeping to the lower rim of the BOC, probably due to landfall near or just south of tampico in 12 hrs or so.
i thought scott's call that this would potentially be an 'unnamed system' were premature the other day.. now i'm getting the feeling he may turn out right. is suggesting it will play this one conservatively. i expected them to call it a TD at the hour, but as it's already being underrated i'm doubtful that it will ever be bret.
the wave that was approaching the islands has stayed flat (low amplitude, elongated cyclonic swirl), fast-moving, and it's convection has puffed out overnight. based on presentation it is doubtful that it can do anything. still lots of rain near the east coast, with a stewing offshore convective complex. i think another very weak low is possible near the east coast as the week progresses.
eyes turn to the eastern atlantic now. globals still develop the emerging wave going into next week. bastardi is already suggesting that it may approach the continent in the extended period, so i'm definitely interested. has a long way to go to be anything, though.
HF 1640z28june
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't mind watching them from this far away...after last year's season, I actually PREFER it. 
Not to go off topic, but since he IS a moderator, does anyone know where LI Phil has gone? I've read the last 3 topics and haven't once seen his name. Is he okay? Did he go on vacation? Just curious and wanting to make sure he's okay.
Thanks!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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95L is developing nicely and should be a TD soon, if not already. It's running out of room for development but could obtain TS status briefly before it hits the Mex coast.
TG
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING
FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IN THE
AREA AROUND 28/2100Z.
Good news that they will go and what they will find is a healthy system.
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Tue Jun 28 2005 02:05 PM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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BOC system I found presures near 1004mb. So could be near 1002mb. Without recon we dont know the exact details. Sat data and radar images show a well defined circulation. Bouys report winds around 35mph with the highest gust found near 46mph. It should of been classified as of 11am, not when first vis came out ( since we know from Mex radar there is a well defined cir) but with bouy and ship reports supporting this.
Anyways should be no treat to the U.S but much needed rainfall to southern Texas at the end of the week.
scottsvb
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hmm.. didn't check the 2-day recon plan of the day. why a recon today appears only in the 2-day (when the system will be moving onshore by tomorrow) is baffling, but i got my info wrong. contradictory information does that to me.
latest visibles have a small /central dimple feature appearing. if i'm reading it correctly, this thing is spinning up rapidly, and may well end up being more than a minimal system. pretty sure it's a tropical storm now, based on appearance and some of the obs scott is monitoring. so... perhaps it will be bret after all.
elsewhere in the basin, nothing pressing. wave nearing the islands is skidding along at manic pace, its cyclonic signature getting smeared (even though the trough ahead will enhance its convection some). lots of rain up the east coast but nothing tropical trying to go in it. wave near the african coast will be the next spectacle, as the globals are showing their support with consistency. whether the pattern will carry it all the way across is a fuzzy topic. SSTs don't warm enough for anything to really get going until past 40w, so anything that swirls up will more than likely get the islands. whether there's a weakness in the ridge off the east coast or not is an ambiguous signal in the models. considering that trough splits are occurring every 10 days to 2 weeks, it's probably overdoing whatever troughiness is shown, but that's not a slam-dunk conclusion. joe b already wants to bring it all the way across, which i have some faith in. will be able to form a firmer opinion near the end of the week.
HF 1935z28june
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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check out the 2pm twd. a surface trough is in the BOC, and a surface low is forecast to develop in the next 24 hrs, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone...
the 's powers of observation can be very underwhelming at times.
HF 1946z28june
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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T numbers up to 2.0/2.0 this one will last a little longer than the mid atlantic coulda/woulda/shoulda been storm, I would be beyond suprised if it wasn't made at least at TD.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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appears nw?
those things down there can stall. meander....and the dry air west of all that
tropical moisture is somewhat retreating...
hafta study it for a few hours to get a feel....any chance it'll hang out in the water a few days...always a chance, eh?
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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BOC storm looks like Bret; but have you guys seen the mid GOM- that too appears to be swirling but can't determine if it's an upper or lower level low.(95L/25W)
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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THE BOC LOW IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG TO THE WNW AND IT WILL BE OVER BEFORE IT STARTS, BUT ALTHOUGH SMALL, IT IS CLASSIFIABLE NOW...BUT CAN'T BE MORE THAN 75-100 MILES FROM LAND FALL NOW...OH WELL
THE CENTRAL GOM IS THE UPPER EXTREMITY OF THE WAVE, NO SIGN OF CIRCULATION THERE.
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doug
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