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#Matthew continues to move west in the Caribbean, long range uncertainty still is very high.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 29 (Hermine) , Major: 3995 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 29 (Hermine) Major: 3995 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma)
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W at 6 mph
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1376
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Dennis [Re: Frank P]
      #38224 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:40 PM

Good luck, Frank and all of you that are in the path of Cindy. I have a feeling that Cindy may be upgraded to a Cat 1 at 11; although with it being so close to landfall they may not do it. I personally think that's a little misleading to people in your area given what you've said about people being out driving around as if nothing is sitting out there in the Gulf.
Remember Irene? Miami was getting pounded....no warnings for them and a lot of people got some nasty weather they weren't expecting.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1376
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Chat Room [Re: Frank P]
      #38225 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:45 PM

LOL..I just went into the chat room to see if anyone was in there talking about the storms; got kicked out for "behavior". How can I get myself in trouble when I'm the only one in there?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Dennis [Re: Frank P]
      #38226 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:46 PM

I pulled everything in Frank no boarding for this one.You are right though people are complacent and not worried at all it seems.I think not having a Hurricane watch or warning does not help any.My wife just goes its only 70mph then I mention Ivans 50-60mph last year took out the power some.When stuff starts flying tomrrow morning alot of people will be surprised.By the way last set of Cors. only .3N slowing down.Change in direction coming?Clouds are starting to elongate in our direction.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edited by javlin (Tue Jul 05 2005 09:49 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38227 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:47 PM

thanks Colleen, I don't expect it to be to obad if all things stay consistent but boy, the complacency on the coast tonight is unbelievable.... and Biloxi has not been on the east side of anything in a long time.... so if this thing hits off to our west in the Bay St. Louis or Pass Christian area, I think its going to surprise a few people... guess I'll find out in the morning

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Dennis [Re: javlin]
      #38228 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:49 PM

Hi Jav, and you are exactly right... we see 70 mph winds out of the south tomorrow and that is going to surprise a few people... I have not noticed the slow down but I'll go check the loop, that would NOT be good...

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Chat Room [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38229 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:50 PM

Quote:

LOL..I just went into the chat room to see if anyone was in there talking about the storms; got kicked out for "behavior". How can I get myself in trouble when I'm the only one in there?




What were you saying?..............LOL


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1376
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Cindy [Re: javlin]
      #38231 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:54 PM

I'm not exactly sure where the LLC is but if it's where I think it is, it looks as though it's pulling a little more to the right. If i'm wrong, than it's about to make landfall.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1376
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Chat Room [Re: Southern4sure]
      #38232 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:58 PM

Yeah, I see your point!

Dennis is getting bigger by the minute, I swear it. Cindy looks like she's gonna take a lot of people by surprise - not a good thing.

Actually..I JUST NOW saw your point, ROFLOL! I wasn't saying anything...long day....jeesh...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Edited by Colleen A. (Tue Jul 05 2005 09:59 PM)


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
8PM Bouy Data [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38234 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:12 PM

Just noticed the bouy data from a bouy west of the center with a NNE wind at 67kt sustained and 79 kt gusts. If this isn't a hurricane, I will be very surprised. Seems as though the center as of 8PM was south of the coast between Grand Isle and the Mouth of the Ms.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 8PM Bouy Data [Re: jth]
      #38235 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:15 PM

The Station he is referring to is Station SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06
28.87N 90.48W 24nm NNW of last reported center of Cindy.

That would convert to 77mph and gusts to 91mph.
Anemometer height: 40.4 m ( 133 feet above sea level) above site elevation.(NDBC)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPLL1

There is a conversion factor for height of winds above sea level. So this may or may not be considered Hurricane Force wind speeds.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 8PM Bouy Data [Re: danielw]
      #38236 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:24 PM

If I see 79k gusts later tonight or in the am I'm not going to be a happy camper... based on these bouy reports it sure looks like she has gained Cat 1 status... unless of course the NHC feels there is a calibration or reliability issue with the bouy instrumentation... yeah right...

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saints63213
Unregistered




Re: 8PM Bouy Data [Re: danielw]
      #38237 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:25 PM

a local met. said that he has seen bouys with 90 mph sustained winds and 110 guest.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Cindy-Updated position [Re: saints63213]
      #38238 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:31 PM

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 764
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis [Re: danielw]
      #38239 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:33 PM

I have taken some time to see if I could write off Dennis for se fl..At this time,I can not say that we can.It has started a curve,and there are still things that could bring it to South Florida.We could all wake up on any given day and see the forcast change,we have seen that many times.But I do believe that Dennis will be a major hurricane.I still think that everyone from the east coast of Florida to Texas need to watch this one.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Thread [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38242 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 PM

Mike has posted a new thread. Please post there.

" Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched "


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: ts/hur cindy, dennis [Re: HanKFranK]
      #38318 - Wed Jul 06 2005 03:38 AM

HF,
I have to agree that it is way too early to predict intensity. I would expect a hurricane but how strong is anyones guess. I'm not expecting more than Can I but we both know that with all the warm water in the Gulf, anything is possible, just not necessarlily likely. A lot depends on the 500mb ridge over Florida, how strong, eroded by Cindy, movement to the East etc. If it erodes or moves or weakens enough, Florida would likely see much more effect. If it stays on the forecast track, well, the central gulf will get another blast it doesn't need, not that anyone actually *needs* a hurricane on their front doorstep. Maybe Texas could use a strong depression to dump some rain where it is needed but no one really needs a tropical system visiting them. I also agree that the media hype and 'nicknames' are usually contraproductive. But, like the storms themselves, we, you and I can do little or nothing except to preach the facts as we understand them based upon knowledge and experience. You are an excellent prognosticator and I think have a good grasp of the technical stuff. I've lived through more stormes than I can remember going back as far as 1943 and including Camille, Donna, Betsy and others including 3 of 4 of the major storms last season. So, you have the knowledge, I have the experience, together, we have a shot at arriving at the truth, such as it is. The truth is that we simply don't know, but we *can* make educated guesses and with each season and each storm, we do try and learn and apply the knowledge. In our own ways, we are both passing on our knowledge of the storms. Hopefully, that will help someone make better decisions when they are faced with an unnwelcome visitor from the tropics. Take care, live long and prosper...

Richard
PS, excuse my spelling...it's 3:40am and I have to teach in the morning No time to proofread this one...


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