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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38175 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:50 PM

Florida is most decidedly NOT in the clear...in fact, the danger is higher now than it was before...storm may slow and meander in SE Gulf, trough supposed to develop.....we have heard this tune before. The entire state is in the erro cone...DON'T focus on the track, the 'skinny black line'.

MM


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Could Cindy go Cat 1? [Re: danielw]
      #38176 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:53 PM

Based on the imagery available, both satellite and radar, it seems as if Cindy might just get to 75mph prior to landfall. Given the drop in pressure from Recon, down to 997, plus data from their equipment which suggested winds near 75 mph at the surface, i think she has a shot. A little surprised no Hurricane Watches or Warnings have been issued yet though, i must admit. We may see an update within the next couple of hours that takes her to Cat 1, and includes Hurricane Warnings. My thoughts any way

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: MapMaster]
      #38177 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:53 PM

I agree and after reading the 5pm dicussion it is when the weakness will effect Dennis. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052057.shtml?

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Wingman51]
      #38180 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:22 PM

Quote:

Just a brief reminder that even though "Charlie" was ONLY at Cat II going thru Central Fla - It did more damage then anyone possibly imagined. Many still with "blue roofs" and the tree canopy will never be the same. While I agree with the previous posts, It is not time to panic, however, a quick look at your prep kit would be in order and a replenishment of supplies can never occur too early.

Chuck


You are correct however my point was that IF any storm transverses the length of the state from south to north, it will not be as potent as when it first makes landfall. The gentleman was asking a question that led me to believe he was afraid that a change of course would bring our 'D' storm through the state and would it still be a hurricane. Additionally, I reiterated the necessity of preparation and the lack of need to worry about whatever path this storm ends up taking. We can't change whatever path is in the future for this or any other storm. What we can do is be prepaared for whatever happens and in any case, WORRY is not a solution, PREPARATION is *part* pf the solution. A tripical storm often causes as much or more damage than a full blown hurricane, not from wind, but from flooding and trees down on power lines and through roofs and such and such.
No, you are right that Charlie was one of the more expensive storms in history but much of that damage was not from the Cat II winds but from the TS winds around it, the rain and the tornado activity. More than a few roofs were damaged, but often not from Cat II winds, just TS winds blowing down trees onto the buildings and power lines. Only in a relatively small area near the center track line was the wind actually Cat 1 or II. I think we both agree that preparaation is the key with any storm.
Richard


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Ricreig]
      #38181 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:32 PM

Things are picking up (literally, I'm sure) for the bouy in Southwest Pass, LA. It's fun to watch the pressure and windspeed change as the storm passes....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Ricreig]
      #38182 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:36 PM

... well also due to the fact that it was a category four at landfall in an urbanized area, and our coastal cities boast of 10 million dollar houses. And it is "charley".

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 05 2005 06:37 PM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
cdo for Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #38183 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:48 PM

The Central Dense Overcast is really taking off....wouldn't suprise me if an eye forms tonight...and it's a cat 2 storm within 36 hours...
all the makings of a widow maker

Cindy is even strengthening more...and should hit the Mississippi area tonight around 2:00 am...as a cat 1 cane...weak, however....

had Cindy stalled...we could've had a two or so...

interesting week ahead preparing for Dennis. All the models are strangely in agreement....

if it blossoms quickly, it will create it's own weather....and nothing much will affect it. I was watching the size of the storm today...and it kept getting larger. Now Dennis is tightening up...and should be a cane tonight....


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: cdo for Dennis [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #38185 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:55 PM

Yes Rick-Dennis is coming together pretty nicely this evening. Earlier this afternoon the organization seemed to wane slightly, but now strong convection is getting pumped out near the center.

Depending on what happens overnight, this could possibly become a hurricane a good time before reaching Jamaica. I think that "Hurricane Dennis" by this evening is just a tad too agressive. But the last few visible images of the day reveal that the storm is definitely on the right track (or not, depending on where you live).


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Lysis]
      #38186 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:57 PM

Quote:

... well also due to the fact that it was a category four at landfall in an urbanized area, and our coastal cities boast of 10 million dollar houses. And it is "charley".


I got to know "Charley" so well, up close and personal, that I feel at home with his nickname

Yes, as I alluded, anyone near the coast at the point of landfal *will* suffer from a much greater level of wind and related damage but even more dangerous than the wind in many cases is the storm surge. Both can cause much damage. With that said, remember the original poster was worried about a storm negotiating the length of the state and the reference to CharlIE was meant to show how fast a storm loses wind speed. The wind speed damage is way down after only a relatively few miles (say 20-40 or so) and the damage changes from utter destruciton of a major storm to the more general (albeit still very expensive and life threatening) trees down, roofs penetrated by falling trees, power outages, flooding and such. None are any fun but the house isnot usally eraseded from the face of the earth like near the impact location. The exception is the tornadic activity that often follows the storm many hundreds of miles inland...those can wipe a structure completely away. Most of the damage remains trees down (and resultant damage to structures) and flood. Again, worry doesn't solve anything, planning does. Preparation lessens risk and helps survival after the storm. Worry does neither. I think Dennis will miss the state for the most part, with the exception of the panhandle, but only a small shift of the course to the right of the model projections would mean much of the state could feel some effects and that justifies getting prepared. As busy as this season appears to be, any unused supplies will likely be used in the near future. I suggest getting them now while they still are available rather than waiting until too late. Take care...
Richard


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Hurricane Warnings [Re: Frank P]
      #38187 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:57 PM

Yeah, Frank, I was wondering the same thing. A 3mb drop from 1000 to 997 is kind of scary..how much more will it drop before it makes landfall? You guys may have them up at the next advisory. I'd actually be surprised if they didn't. Or would I be?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Re: cdo for Dennis [Re: Kevin]
      #38188 - Tue Jul 05 2005 06:59 PM

You're probably right Dennis...but I get nervous with these things...gotta go off and get the boat a little more "roped" tonight..in case we get an eastern shift with Cindy...these things have a way of kicking right as they get near land...a difference in pressure from land to water....all that scientific stuff....I just watch em.....and get a gut feel...

too much science makes my head hurt...

see ya'll in the AM...


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: cdo for Dennis [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #38190 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:14 PM

Dennis' CDO feature looks mighty impressive tonight, but it's going to be at least another 6+hr before we get a response in the wind field & pressure readings. Recon out there found a poorly defined eyewall, but a sea level pressure of only 1005mb. Needless to say, it has a much better satellite appearance than its current intensity would suggest (especially over the past few hours), but I imagine everything hasn't worked its way to the surface quite yet. Give it time, as it'll likely get there. Slowing down would help it some.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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GeorgiaGirl
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Ricreig]
      #38191 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:15 PM

I AM IN SE GEORGIA AND WHEN CHARLIE MAKE LANDFALL WE DEFINATELY FELT THE EFFECTS. THE STORM PASSED AT LEAST 300 MILES TO THE EAST OF US AND IT WAS A VERY ROUGH NIGHT. TORNADO WARNINGS WERE GOING OUT EVERY 30 MINUTES. TREES WERE DOWN, STREETS WERE FULL OF WATER AND IT LITERALLY BLEW THE BOARDS OUT FROM UNDER MY 68FT. LONG PORCH. AS I SAID, WE WERE WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE AND RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. I JUST CANT IMAGINE TAKING A DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE. WE ARE JUST BELOW SAVANNAH AND FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN THAT LITTLE NOOK THAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY LUCKY SPOT ON THE COAST OF GA. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND SEASON SINCE I FOUND THIS SITE AND IT HAS BEEN VERY INFORMATIVE. THANKS TO ALL YOU FELLOW WEATHER GURUS, I HAVE REALLY LEARNED ALOT!!

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Cindy New Orleans Update [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #38192 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:17 PM

6:15PM Update (New Orleans, LA)

Things aren't bad right now as we are between squalls and getting a nice break right now. Down at the coast (Grand Isle) they are reporting sustained winds of 40 mph already with gusts to 50. I'll try to keep everyone updated.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #38193 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:38 PM

Thanks, Steve...please stay safe and know that we are thinking of you and hoping that things don't get too bad.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38194 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:42 PM

you are absolutely right, Ricreig, however realize that people have no idea what these things are like at their full intensity. A category 1 or 2 pales in comparison to the damage of a category 3, 4, or 5 (damage in correlation with the wind increases exponentially). If anyone who hasnít done so already, and wants to see what a major hurricane is like, please feel free to download my film of hurricane Charley.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 05 2005 07:43 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update [Re: Lysis]
      #38195 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:06 PM

Cindy down to 992 mb yikes

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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AMK
Unregistered




Cindy and Dennis strengthening [Re: MapMaster]
      #38197 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:08 PM

Per the latest advisory, both storms are dropping in pressure...Cindy at 992 and Dennis at 1001. I would not be surprised if Cindy becomes a minimal hurricane before landfall...as for Dennis, i hope it doesnt hurt anyone....

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Cindy New Orleans Update [Re: Lysis]
      #38198 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:16 PM

Quote:

If anyone who hasnít done so already, and wants to see what a major hurricane is like, please feel free to download my film of hurricane Charley


Which, by the way, was excellent. No, I don't minimize the effects of a major storm at all. My experience includes Camille in the NE Eyewall and I was without electricity for SIX months on a military base even. No, I don't downplay a major storm at all. What I am trying to get across is that unless you are at ground zero on the ocean when such a storm comes ashore, the intensity of the storm winds deminish rapidly and the damage from the storm rapidly changes from major destruction due to wind and storm surge to damage by downed trees and flooding. In either case, worrying about the storm does not help bu preparation does. I do NOT want to go through another hurricane, even through a tropical storm. Anyone having gone through a major storm or felt the effects of flooding and tornados spawned by a tripical storm will usually not want a repeat performance. Evacuating 4 times last year from my trailer was no fun. Rebuilding a demoished home is no fun, suffering the loss of friends or family due to a storm is no fun, but we can't live in fear and worry. We need to become informed, learn from others past experiences and plan and prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Those of you living where our four major storms came ashore last season, or the Andrews, Hugo, Camille and a host of others, all know what a major storm can do, but we don't worry about it, or shoudn't. Instead, we learn and prepare. That is my message. Tonight, a Tropica Storm, is hitting our neighbors in the Louisiana area. I hope they were prepared and I wish them safe and without injury or loss as this storm passes through. I don't diminish the effects of *any* storm, just know that preparation minimizes the losses. I also pray that you never have to make another film like the one you made last year with Charley.

Richard


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bob895
Unregistered




Dennis [Re: Ricreig]
      #38200 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:36 PM

I think Dennis is going to be big trouble....could be another Ivan.

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