Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 65 (Nate) , Major: 83 (Maria) Florida - Any: 93 (Irma) Major: 93 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf
      #37979 - Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 PM

8:00PM
Cindy is approaching the Louisiana coastline as a strong tropical storm, with a pressure of 992 mb, it may be a rough night there in Louisiana-- if the weather warnings for the area does not tell that tale as is. The approach toward New Orleans that Cindy has may cause some surge as well. I hope this doesn't wind up catching some people in the area off guard.



Dennis has strengthened slightly over the day, and may be a hurricane in a day or two. A Hurricane Watch is now up for Jamaica because of this. And the Caymans will likely follow soon as well

A full new update will come around the time of the NHC's 11pm update.

2:15PM
See Clark's Blog Update Below this news article for more thoughts on Cindy and Dennis.

10:45AM
Tropical Depression #4 is now Tropical Storm Dennis. The earliest "D" named storm in recorded history for the Atlantic Basin. Dennis will likely to continue to strengthen. Tropical Storm Watches are up for Hati and the Dominican Republic.

Cindy is gaining a bit of strength as well and may well be a moderate to strong Tropical Storm upon landfall. Continue to watch this.

I know a lot are wondering aobut Dennis' future track and we'll be updating comments on that as time goes along. Right now there is a lot of long range uncertainty. So it really is too early to say where in the US the storm will track, but Florida, and the Gulf States will need to watch this one closely. Anything now is speculation.

Jamaica and Cuba will be dealing with Dennis soon as well. There are no real reason I can see that would prevent Dennis from becoming a hurricane over the next day or two.

Got a question, have an observation you have seen?, interesting link, reply and let everyone know.

More to come later...

7AM
Tropical Storm Cindy has formed from Tropical Depression Three in the Gulf, Tropical storm Warnings have been issued for Louisiana, and eastward to Pascagoula, Mississippi. Including New Orleans.

The storm remains still somewhat disorganized, and upper level winds aren't all that favorible for it to get much stronger. However, it still has a shot maybe to become a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Thankfully i don't think it can get beyond that.





TD#4 continues to look better organized this morning and will likely become Tropical Storm Dennis later today. The forecast there is for it to arrive in the eastern Gulf, after crossing Cuba. The margin of error will keep us floridians watching very closely over the next few days. Other areas along the Gulf should keep watch too, after dealing with Cindy.




Original Update
Fireworks on July 4th in the Tropics. Thankfully neither are really big boomers. But will need to be watched, especially TD#4.

Tropical Depression #3 remains disorganized, and has relocated the center to the North. The National Hurricane Center has placed Tropical Storm Watches up along the Coast of Louisiana, excepting New Orleans and points east. The system may become Cindy before it strikes land. It's still a difficult storm to find the exact center of, and it may reform itself again.



Tropical Depression #4 has formed in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, and the trends have it going through the larger islands in the Western Caribbean, and eventually making its way closer to Florida. This will require close watch over the next few days for us in Florida. As well as those in the Caribbean Including Hati, Cuba, and Jamaica. They will all want to watch the storm closely. Land interaction with the islands will determine the future impact on any US landfall. Florida and the Gulf coast must keep a watch on this one during the week. As the forecasted intensity puts it at Hurricane Strength.

Again, Tropical Depression #4 will be one to watch over the coming week (very likely to be Dennis). For US Interests in Florda along the Southern, Western and Pandhandle coastline. Unfortunately.

Event Related Links

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Cindy:
Animated Model Plot of Cindy
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Cindy
Color Satellite of Gulf of Mexico
Mobile Bay Long range Radar
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
New Orleans Long range radar
Visible Satellite Loop of Cindy

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #37981 - Mon Jul 04 2005 11:49 PM

I have to tell you: I don't know why they didn't include the greater N.O. area except for this: they're not all that sure that the track isn't going to pull a little more to the right in the next 36 hours. Who knows what it will do?
TD#4: Please don't let those models verify. I've had enough of this already. Just keep going west.............

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #37985 - Tue Jul 05 2005 12:36 AM

test reply..

I don't want to downplay TD#3 too much. It is in the Gulf, after all. It will need to be watched too, especially with the center reforming.

TD#4 is going to be the lion's share of discussion this week, I have a feeling. if anyone notices anything interesting with either system, please put up a reply here.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #37986 - Tue Jul 05 2005 12:50 AM

... I have a bad feeling about this one.

edited to remove remarks~danielw

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 05 2005 12:58 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: Doombot!]
      #37987 - Tue Jul 05 2005 12:59 AM

As spock would say......"intersting Captain"........and so it begins again.....

I'll be glued to this site all week long......we're already soaked to the gills in Central florida......


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: Colleen A.]
      #37989 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:01 AM

Colleen,
N.O. probably wasn't included in the watch at this time because of #3's poor structure, and it is not a TS. N.O. is somewhat inland. If the system was to become a stronger one, and promised to track a bit further east, I am sure the NHC would post a watch for them too.
Not to move on to the next. #4 has a lot more potential to be a formidable risk to people. Just remeber there is a forecast cone of error and that is what to watch.
On a final note, Tallahassee's Afternoon Discussion (LINK: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEAFDTAE&version=1 ) mentioned that the very busy 1995 hurricane seson (with and active early term) did not produce it's fourth system until July 30. It mentions concern that we a hyper ahead of schedule. Remember that season produced 19 systems, only surpassed by 1933 (with 21) and we are in a pattern more conducive for landfalls than 1995. Do not want to get the cart ahead of the horse from here, but it is something to think about.

P.S. Exact quaote in case link shifts with the issuance of a newer discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...BOY, IT'S TURNING OUT TO BE A BUSY EARLY SEASON IN THE
TROPICS. HERE IT IS ONLY INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
THIRD TD OF THE SEASON ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND
A VERY HEALTHY LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOTH
CINDY AND Dennis THIS WEEK. EVEN IN THE VERY BUSY 1995 SEASON, IT
TOOK UNTIL JULY 30TH FOR THE D STORM TO FORM. SSMI DATA AND RECENT
VISIBLE PIX INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TD 3 MAY HAVE REFORMED JUST
OFF THE NRN YUCATAN COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED BENEATH A A VORT CENTER OVER ERN MS AND NWRN AL. A
CONVERGENT BAND WELL N OF TD 3 SPARKED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS WORKED STEADILY INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY, AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE EXTENDING NWD FROM TD 3.


Edited by dem05 (Tue Jul 05 2005 01:07 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: dem05]
      #37990 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:06 AM

The Eastbank of N O is not under the watch. The westbank I beleive is. Jefferson Parrish which butts to Orleans Parrish is under it. If a Hurricane above a 3 was to hit they would blow the levee up and then the westbank would flood out. There goes my other house.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #37992 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:15 AM

thankfully it is not that strong

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #37993 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:03 AM

as for t.d. 3... it seems to be doing its best isidore impersonation. remember isidore was that strong hurricane that had the gulf coast all worried the last week of september 2002, but beached itself on the yucatan and never rebuilt it's core. honestly think it's been a t.s. most of the afternoon/evening... recon will drop by in the next few hrs and confirm or sink this assumption. because of the relocation the steering mechanisms would tend to take the center further east.. but in the weaker state it's in the system will not recurve as easily. while the path is open further east now (ms/al), the core has to get reorganized for that steering mechanism to kick in. i don't know anymore... the yucatan crossing really knocked my ideas with this one off balance.
t.d. 4 has been officially christened. the NHC could have done it at five, but they played it down like they usually do. doggone thing looks like it's getting clear of the south american coast.. it'll spin up slowly for the first day or two.. but that intensity in the extended period NHC is advertising is definitely conservative. it has a bunch of islands to negotiate, and exactly how it does that will control the intensity and path to a degree. the NHC prog right now for track looks sound to me.
gonna be a long week coming up.
HF 0703z05july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37994 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:10 AM

The T# for TD#3 is 2.5 thats 40 mph. By 5 or 11am we will have TS Cindy

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #37995 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:29 AM

pressure in TD3/Cidy is down 3mb to 1006

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Cindy in Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #37996 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:57 AM

TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 TO 50 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY...THE THIRD NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.

Please see the full advisories on the Main Page. Or at the NHC link on the left side bar. Refer to your local NWS office for Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Local Statements, Watches and Warnings. They are also listed on the Main Page.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 05 2005 05:38 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Depression 4 in Eastern Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #37997 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:10 AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 (edited~danielw)

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

Please see the full advisories on the Main Page. Or at the NHC link on the left side bar. Refer to your local NWS office for Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Local Statements, Watches and Warnings. They are also listed on the Main Page.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 05 2005 05:38 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Cindy and Four [Re: danielw]
      #37998 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:40 AM

Well Cindy still looks very lopsided on the IR imagery this morning. Given the dry air to its west, the relatively poor but improving convective pattern, and the fact it should be inland within 24 to 36 hours, i dont think it will strengthen that much. I reckon 50 mph at landfall would be a good guess, with landfall somewhere near Gulfport, MS.

As for TD Four, well the IR presentation is excellent for a TD. Great banding features and a central core of deep convection. I reckon this will be upgraded to Dennis at the next advisory. Given its presentation and the favourable environment it could easily become a Hurricane within about 60 hours. This one could first be a problem for Jamaica in a day or two.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Cindy and Four [Re: Rich B]
      #37999 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:47 AM

And all of Florida cringes with the current models.. looks oddly like Charley's path.
GO..west!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Cindy and Four [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38000 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:56 AM

One saving grace is the high sitting over and to the east of Florida, most of the models have TD 4 AKA future Dennis moving to the West of Florida. However, things are subject to change real fast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Quick Links [Re: MikeC]
      #38002 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:38 AM

Here is some Bouy info:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Most of you have them


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
New Orleans [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38003 - Tue Jul 05 2005 07:44 AM

Looking at the IR (and outside) tells me rain will start soon and last for a while.... but, you know what. We'll take Cindy... I mean everyone needs their share of storms. Just, the next one *has* to go someplace else...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Dennis the menace [Re: Terra]
      #38005 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:37 AM

seems to be a strong tropical storm. Wouldn't suprise me if it became a hurricane withing 24 hours, if not sooner. for an unnamed storm, I've never seen such a strong convection over a center, and it be consider a TD...
oh well, that's why I am a novice, and they are the experts...

Cat 3 or stronger?....probably. Sure seems like a lot of activity so early in the season, doesn't it?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Dennis the menace [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #38007 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:49 AM

I do not like what I am seeing with "Dennis" so far....currently thinking (hoping) it will move further west before it turns north....we do not need anything around our area with all of the people still living in FEMA trailers....

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 178 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 77919

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center