Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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We got our first band and some thunder. I woke up to pouring rain. I gotta decide if I want to move my car to the railroad tracks or not to beat the flooding that is very possible.
Be on the lookout for heavy rain from Terrebonne/Lafourche Parishes over to Escambia/Santa Rosa. Somebody's getting 10"+ out of this one. We'll probably see 4-7" here or just east of here, but my target for rain would be the MS Coast.
If you get the chance today, go to Yahoo/Weather/Videos and watch Bastardi. He's got a super interesting take on #4/Dennis and also is increasingly into the idea of a short-cut storm hitting the Carolinas later in the season.
Nya-a-a-a-a-a-a.
It's getting black outside to the south, guess another band is headed this way! Woohoo! /breakfast of champions
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey Steve,
I think you guys in LA are going to get Double Dipped!
TD#4  I mean Hurricane looks more like a Hurricane than Cindy looks like a TS via Sat pics:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
My thoughts are that Cindy is going to make things wet and is going to follow through and create allot of Water Damage.
I believe that it is moving too fast: W @ 17 to make the NW turn in time.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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thinks is a formidable threat. I would advise watching his video. He is thinking New Orleans has a good (bad) chance of getting whammed.
wow...so early and so much going on. He also thinks Cindy will be easily a 60 mph storm...lotta rain.
He remarked how ridiculous it is that is not a named storm yet. We all can see satellite and determine the obvious, can't we?....
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Too much model agreement, which factor in the initial forward speed to consider the non turn idea too seriously.
The 'depression' is reassembling it self this morning and some convection is quickly building near the center...
The general movement is north of due west and the expected increase in intensity will allow it to indeed go more wnw in the next 24 hours...it will slide nicely up into the Jamaica area.
I can only depend on the models for this as far as tract and intensity...too much dynamic with the high ridge and the trough that will pickup Cindy...We'll need to look at that on Wed. night and Thursday a.m. to get a fix so to speak.
That's what I'm going to do.
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doug
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i totally agree with with what u just posted...i just got finished watching the video and although the west coast of florida isnt out of the running yet...im still ready...so bring it on if you have to...  everyone be prepared and stay safe...dont know what i would do without this site...thanks a million
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Yall are certainly right about .... It looks very well formed.... What a week!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looks like we will have at 11am based on satellite appearance (I'll be surprised if we don't, and I'll be shocked if we don't before the end of the day)
the system is in the eastern Caribbean, and that said, there are still very evident and strong west winds to the south of the center over Venezuela (something not usually seen with something so far south in the E. Caribbean), and that can only mean that this will rapidly intensify once it moves away from South America
as for Cindy, expect 50-60 mph at landfall, which i expect to be this evening
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I would be much obliged if someone would be so kind as to provided the link for the Bastardi video.
EDIT: Never mind... I found it:
http://weather.yahoo.com/'
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 05 2005 02:00 PM)
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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Rabbit...I think you are correct about the 11am. In checking the last views of it seems to be moving more wnw now...hopefully it will not be east of the track map.....
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
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Hurricane Guy
Unregistered
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Check the last frames, you can see the eye forming on the north...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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ok i hate to ask this...but where is that at?...im looking and i would like to be able to recognize it...any suggestions?...thanks becky
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Yes that may be the LLC, but it is not a true eye...they strom is not symetrical with most immediate weather on the west, and the big piece on the east lagging behind... earlier today I thought that eastern piece may break off and be left behind but now I think it will get pulled in as the day goes on..convection continues to build around the more organized. LLC.
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doug
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Where is what, Flamommy?
EDIT: What the heck is the waiting for?
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 05 2005 02:30 PM)
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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the eye that is starting to form?.....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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If you're refering to Cindy, I think you're seeing clouds forming around the low pressure center.
An 'eye' does not happen in a tropical storm. Only hurricanes have 'eyes'.
The big boy South of Hispanola is the system that has me worried.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Oh dear.
Ivan the Terrible and now the Menace.....
Here we go. I just want to sleep through this season. You guys wake me up when we are through. Hopefully, I will still have a roof over my head! Kidding.
I leave for five days and look at all I was missing. Starting to heat up out there.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I see that the Menace is getting more menacing. Could everyone please reference the name or number of the storm they are referring to in the comments. I will be playing catch up with the posts as the day goes on and will have no clue as to what is being described if I am not able to click on the posts as they are made. Thanks in Advanced. I know everyone else also reads all the posts and gleans knowledge as well as social interaction.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i was referring to this statement...and he didnt say whether it was cindy or "dennis"....sorry for the confusion...
Check the last frames, you can see the eye forming on the north...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Hurricane Guy
Unregistered
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No, Im refering to TD 4, aprox. 66W 14N
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Tropical storm warnings are about to get extended all the way to Panama City FL at the 10 am adv
Edit -- not quite. Warnings to Destin, a watch to Indian Pass, FL. Not so much for a large shift in track to the right, though it has been shifted, but for the expanse of winds on the right side of the track. --Clark
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by Clark (Tue Jul 05 2005 02:41 PM)
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