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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: HCW]
      #38030 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:40 AM

TD#4 is now Tropical Storm Dennis as of 10am

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Rabbit]
      #38031 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:40 AM

Rabbit, strong west winds over Venezuela don't really mean a lot when it comes to development of a Caribbean storm...the primary factors for it developing after it moves away from the coast are the lack of proximity to tall mountains as well as the much warmer (and deeper) warm waters into the Central Caribbean. Waters near the coast, interestingly enough, are very shallow and not all that warm -- the immediate coastline, for that and the topographical reasons, is actually an area where tropical cyclones tend to come nowhere near their maximum potential intensity.

We've now got Dennis at 11a, 40mph/1006mb...Cindy is up to 50mph at 11a and does look a bit better organized -- but again lopsided, like Arlene. The NHC is playing it conservatively with Dennis, which is probably prudent given that no one is directly under its path for the time being. It looks rather impressive on satellite, but remember Earl from last year -- very similar presentation, but no closed circulation. There's one here, of course, and I imagine the wind speeds will probably ramp up at a good rate, but a lot of what you've been seeing is probably a mid-level representation that is just starting to work its way down to the surface.

More coming up around lunchtime...a lot to catch up on after a weekend away! Hope everyone's 4th went well...

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: HCW]
      #38032 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:43 AM

Doug, I agree with your statement that we'll have to wait to see what the overall affects from Cindy are on the steering currents to get a handle on soon to be Dennis' direction. This should be a formidable storm, as it seems to be getting its act together now. Cindy may cause a weakness in any ridging that's here, and that weakness will move east as the remnants of Cindy head to the NE. Its way early to call the ultimate path of "Dennis". Cheers!!

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Clark]
      #38033 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:46 AM

i meant inflow, i probably should have specified

where does it say we have Dennis?
(edit:) found it


Edited by Rabbit (Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 AM)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Rabbit]
      #38034 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 AM

Quote:

where does it say we have Dennis?




11 AM update... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/051439.shtml

The discussion is not up yet though...

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis,Hurricane?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38035 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:48 AM

Looking at the last loop,this thing looks like a hurricane,or very close to one.Also looks like it took a jog more to the north on the last frame.Time will tell,but I am stating to get ready for Dennis today.Where ever this thing goes it looks like it will be a monster.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Jul 05 2005 10:49 AM)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Rabbit]
      #38036 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:50 AM


Tropical Depression four has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dennis. The advisory points out that this the earliest D name in recorded history.

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cheers


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Dennis,Hurricane?? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38037 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:52 AM

i doubt it is anywhere near hurricane intensity--still not organized enough

it will likely be one though before the end of tomorrow, and i am thinking it will get much higher than the 85 mph they are forecasting


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Earl from last year [Re: Clark]
      #38038 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:54 AM

Clark, this is the second reference to Earl from last year, HF through it out yesterday. for thos with impaired memories such as my sel, what are the similarities to Earl as an analog for this storm?

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doug


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twizted sizter
Unregistered




model accuracy [Re: firestar_1]
      #38039 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:57 AM

Longtime lurker...may as well jump in.

The models seemed to change course with future Dennis this a.m....sure they will again as the days go by...although MM5 & I believe GFS still show Fl taking some sort of hit.

As far as the track being east of what NHC is calling for at the moment...just based on my obs from last year..TSFH...seems with the storms in the Gulf, landfall was more to the right & with Atlantic storms, landfall was more to the left.

With some of the model runs now that can be a big difference between taking a hit & just maybe having some rain.

Just hope people don't end up in denial & pay attention.


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Terra]
      #38041 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:00 AM

Quote:

The discussion is not up yet though...




Yes it is: From Weather Underground:

Quote:

Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.
Forecaster Pasch




The 11am forecast track is taking Dennis furthur into the Gulf, lessening any threat to the Florida Peninsula...however, Florida's sparing might mean New Orleans' problem.

--Lou


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Lysis]
      #38042 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:01 AM

Quote:


Tropical Depression four has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dennis. The advisory points out that this the earliest D name in recorded history.





since its the earliest recorded D.. is there any season where all the named storms made an appearance.... cause its July 5 and at the rate we are going

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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #38043 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:02 AM

UPDATED: A portion of Central Florida is placed in a forecast cone of possible strike locations for one of two storms gaining strength today, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.
Was posted today July 5th on A orlando tv stations website.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Dennis,Hurricane?? [Re: Rabbit]
      #38044 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:04 AM

At this time models appear to project Dennis as a GOM event- but it is far too early in the running as the margin for error can be too great at this stage.

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: LizL]
      #38045 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:05 AM

what portion are you referring to liz?

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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38046 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:07 AM

panhandle... (look at the tracking map)

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cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 05 2005 11:08 AM)


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38047 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:09 AM

local6.com showed that but not really any more details

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Dennis,Hurricane?? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #38048 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:11 AM

I want to reiterate, nobody will get a handle on the probabilities until after this gets past Jamaica...it is enough to note the projection in the center of the cone is mid gulf, and that probabilities are up to as high as 14 for Marco and 11 for Ft. Myers already to put people in W Central Florida on enough alert to kee in touch.

--------------------
doug


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Joe Bastardi [Re: Lysis]
      #38049 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:13 AM

I have to agree with Lysis, sure looks like the panhandle or a bit to west of that area.......Possible CAT 2 coming up??????.......Weatherchef

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
sats [Re: twizted sizter]
      #38050 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:18 AM

nice vis this morning.... cindy

Dennis is going to be a major problem in 5-7 days, somewhere in the northern/east gulf it looks like, if things hold together....way to early to tell on exact location or area, but now is a good time from the fla. keys to New Orleans to go ahead if not already, get evac. plans and supplies and or kits ready..

so what will the bermuda high be like in 5-8 days? (man, sounds like last year!)

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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