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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38112 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:15 PM

Dennis has started to curve more north,that is a fact.What is means?,not sure.Any input on Cindy helping Dennis move more towards the east?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Katie]
      #38113 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:16 PM

Quote:

I think that Colleen would be pretty close to perfect with her guess on Cindy being a Cat I at landfall. Gulf is warm and looks like perfect conditions for her to get better organized. A lot can happen in the heating of the day...only time will tell.

Dennis, in my opinion, a little too close for comfort. Guess it is time to just make sure everything is ready just in case. I am afraid he will take his time to make sure he is good and strong before he makes landfall. Hate to say it but I would much rather him stay on a more northernly path rather than having Central Florida back in the "cone" again.

Lysis, wanna have a storm party this year? I will bring my video camera too!?!?!




Katie.. i have done some travelling through central florida (Sebring area) for the past couple of months and i can't believe that many people and businesses don't have their roofs back up yet. So Dennis STAY AWAY from our brothers and sisters in Central Florida.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38114 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:20 PM

Visual and radar suggest that perhaps there is something of further reorg. going on with Cindy? Or perhaps I just haven't paid attention: but wasn't the center of this always to the left of the convection and some what exposed? That certainly seems to still be the case visually and even on radaras all the activity seems to be wraping around a low open on sw and west...BUT on radar in the area of the higher wind gusts to the east of that center and under the convection is another distinct rotation vortex and the rotation around that is indeed more pronounced which would explain some of the data we have received.
Anybody see that too?

--------------------
doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: ]
      #38115 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:22 PM

I've posted my thoughts on both storms on the main page, at the bottom in the blog section, so check it out if you're interested.

The biggest thing I can say with regards to both storms is to be prepared, but do not panic. Knowing that these storms are out there now, Cindy thankfully weak (though trying to get better organized) and Dennis well away from a US (or even Caribbean) landfall, along with already having seen 2 other storms this season, is the biggest key in knowing to be prepared. Being able to get what you need now and following the storms, listening to the authorities (NHC, NWS, emer. mgmt.), and being ready to move out if need be are all keys to keeping panic from setting in. Do not focus in on those in the media who, unfortunately, try to harp on one or two long-range model runs or present a doom & gloom scenario for either of the two storms; do, however, stay tuned to those who are trying to present you with accurate information you need to know to make a decision (like Jason & many others out there).

Dennis does have the potential to be quite the menace (pardon the pun) while Cindy is already menacing to many along the northern Gulf coast. Myself, I have family who planned a vacation there for this week, and I've got to watch out for their safety. Do the same for yourself or those you know, and stay tuned to see what else these storms and this season may bring.

(Probably a new acronym to replace TSFH from last year!)

Interesting trivia: never in recorded history have we seen 6 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic before August. Five has happened on a few occasions, but never 6. We are on pace for 7, though I imagine things will slow down just a bit once we are through with Dennis. Still, we could set history in more than one way with this season...and not in a good way, either.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: doug]
      #38116 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:23 PM

Where do you look to find the most up-to-the-minute sat images and radar? It seems that the GOES on the NOAA SSD site are delayed by 35-40 minutes, and the dopplar radars on the NOAA SRH site are delayed 10-15 minutes... Can we do better than that?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38117 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:25 PM

I am looking at Intellecast...they too are delayed.

--------------------
doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38118 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:25 PM

Cindy, if it remains and helps to enhance the trough to its west a little bit, could weaken the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and allow Dennis to recurve a bit further to the north & east, placing Florida more in line for a direct hit, but that is still way too far out there to tell with any large degree of certainty. Better bet is that Cindy weakens and/or moves far enough to the north not to play such a role (or only a cursory one) with Dennis.

Re: question about Earl earlier -- Earl was a lopsided storm, likely with some enhancement from a mid-latitude trough, that reached hurricane status with winds of over 100mph. It made landfall in the Florida panhandle, bringing both wind and rain to the region, and is likely the best example of the peak intensity that such a lopsided storm may reach. Cindy has a similar appearance on satellite, though I am not going to go so far as to say a similar result may be seen with this storm. Truth be told, I believe that this current round of organization is all for Cindy, with a peak in intensity likely about 6-12hr before landfall. That doesn't mean, however, that it won't bring a lot of rain and some wind to the coastline.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #38119 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:26 PM

Great Post Clark!!!

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38120 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:31 PM

Hi Terra...

I'm not having a lot of problem getting the radar data within about 5 minutes of the time of the image. Radar imagery is only developed about every 6-10 minutes, depending on the scanning technique employed by the radar (that's just extraneous info, though), and it takes another minute or two to process it and have it ready on the web. You may want to try to new enhanced radar imagery from the NWS at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ to see if that works better for you, though.

Satellite imagery is usually delayed a few minutes, with the coverage only being about every 30 minutes outside of North America and 3 hours outside of the Northern Hemisphere. US imagery -- including Cindy -- is generally on about 7-10 minute intervals from the NASA GHCC site (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/) and is usually only about 15 minutes or so behind on my end. Considering the time needed for data dissemination, I think that's about as good as you are going to get on those. The Colo. State rapid-scan site is currently inaccessible; you might have better luck trying later, though. Here's the address for that: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML. I'm not sure if it is over Cindy right now, however.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Clark]
      #38121 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:39 PM

Thanks.... The NASA site does seem to update more frequently... It's just not as close up as the other... but, beggars can't be choosers... I can use both!

I also was not aware of the Ridge site for radar, but noticed it has the same time resolution as the SRH. What's the difference in the two, other than different colors? I did notice that the latest radar was 5 minutes earlier a few minutes ago, so I guess it depends on when it is taken.

Thanks again!

I may have answered my own question.... when I turned the "topo" and "warnings" off, it looked a lot like the SRH radar.... so, maybe the Ridge radar adds topography and warnings, as well as flexibility in what you want to see?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Tue Jul 05 2005 02:53 PM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Dennis the menace seems to be..... [Re: Terra]
      #38122 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:51 PM

getting larger...I notice that the clouds are encompassing an every larger area of the Caribbean.....ominous....really showing excellent characteristics of a soon to be cat 5!

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38123 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:56 PM

Quote:

Well even if it were to come right up the state of FL seeing it still has hispanolia and cuba to go thru the chances of it being anything more then a CAT 1 is slim wouldn't you think?


I would remind you that Charlie, last year, did almost just that. It started as a Cat IV, started a third of the way up the state and yet, in the Orlando area, was a Cat II at most. Any hurricane starting as a Cat I in the keys area and going up the center will most likely not be above strong TS strength by the time it makes it to Central Florida. However, you should always be prepared for even a TS strength storm. Things like batteries, drinking water, blankets, generator, full car gas tank and such should *always* be up to date or made so well before the storm approaches. Gas stations will be swamped, even out of gas, batteries will be sold out, non-perishable food will be scarce and so on, IF you wait till the last minute. Your best bet is to prepare early and not worry yourself too much about this storm UNLESS you live on or near the coast. Then, your list gets longer (shutters, etc) and requires more effort and lead time. If you live in a low-lying area, you should consider flooding as a more dangerous threat than the winds themselves. Consider where you would go if you have to evacuate for some reason.

Bottom line: Prepare and don't worry.
Richard


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Question? [Re: Clark]
      #38124 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:02 PM

Clark..or anyone...on that RAMSIS website, when I looked at the WV loop, is that big dry air mass just to the east of the Jersey Coastline the Bermuda high?
Sorry I keep asking questions...I just have to know what I'm looking at to post something that makes sense.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Dennis the menace seems to be..... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #38125 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:17 PM

Looking at Dennis: it doesn't appear to be GREATLY organized but you can see that it's trying to get it's act together. If/when he slows down, he will have a chance to get better organized. Since the storm is not even near the US mainland yet, there is a lot of uncertainty of just exactly where he will go. UNfortunately, we know that once he enters the GOM he has to go SOMEWHERE. Where that is all depends on a lot of unknowns at this time.
I will tell you one thing I do know for certain: Dennis a going to be a gigantic storm and no matter where he ends up, there's going to be a lot of nasty weather on his way there and afterwards. It almost reminds me of Hurricane Georges ...that storm was large and about 100 miles off the coast of Florida, but let me tell you: that was one of the scariest storms I've been through.
As for Cindy...she has a lot of rain with her...I just hope she doesn't slow down and take her time getting inland...giving her time to strengthen...and then causing the devastating flooding as it moves it's way through the eastern half of the US.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Ricreig]
      #38126 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:18 PM

Just a brief reminder that even though "Charlie" was ONLY at Cat II going thru Central Fla - It did more damage then anyone possibly imagined. Many still with "blue roofs" and the tree canopy will never be the same. While I agree with the previous posts, It is not time to panic, however, a quick look at your prep kit would be in order and a replenishment of supplies can never occur too early.

Chuck


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38127 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:21 PM

Terra -- yeah, the new ridge site for radar data adds topographic maps, velocity data, and a means of zooming & panning on the loops. It also adds a good distance marker in the static (non-loop) mode. Other than that, though, it's the same radar data...just a new way to view it.

Colleen -- the dry air out there is the dry mid-level air behind a shortwave trough that is currently located north-northeast of Bermuda. Not really the Bermuda/subtropical ridge, which really shows up with the anticyclonic turning south of 30 N. It's kinda pinched compared to some times last year, but still of similar strength.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Clark]
      #38128 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:25 PM

Cindy's up to 70 now...

TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Dennis the menace seems to be..... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38129 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:25 PM

Colleene, I agree with you I think it still looks a little ragged.

--------------------
doug


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Wingman51]
      #38130 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:26 PM

Let's see what kind of damage TS Cindy does and than maybe we'll all rethink what a Cat II does inland. A Cat 1 can do a lot of damage. I know that here in Polk County, there are people who STILL have blue tarps on their roofs and not all of the debris from LAST year's season has been picked up. Can you imagine what would happen if we had Dennis al a Charlie picking up all that debris and having it fly around?? Besides the normal damage caused by any hurricane, we'd have to add in all that flying stuff.
Jeez. Maybe if we all turn to the south and blow all that hot air out of our lungs, we can get Dennis to keep on a WEST track. -----------> (wishful thinking)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered




Re: sats [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #38131 - Tue Jul 05 2005 03:27 PM

Thanks for the info. Inverters come in ratings as low as 75 watts, maybe even less. If 400 or 750 is not enough wattage, I have seen models available online in the 1000 to 1500 watt range for $100 to $150 or so. The one at Lowe's for $29.99 is a good deal. I seriously doubt you'll find a comparable model for less. Even Walmart is about $15 more. The one I have, the 400, includes a cigarette lighter adapter, as well as battery clips, for heavier electrical loads. The 750 does not include the cigarette lighter adapter, otherwise I probably would have sprung for that one, even though it's double the price. I'll try mine out later today, just to make sure it actually works.

For me, 400 watts should be enough. I will still have the battery powered devices, and I already have about $50+ worth of D and AA batteries (batteries were very hard to find after Frances hit, and I got them when I could.). Publix seemed to have the best (only) supply of batteries after the crisis, btw. Forget Walmart unless you show up at 4am when the truck is unloaded.


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