Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Small but active easterly wave near 12.5N 52.5W at 03/00Z moving west at 10-12 knots. Systems remains disorganized, however, wind shear is light and generally expected to remain light as the wave moves to the west. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.
Cheers,
ED
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I mentioned this in the am w. DW, you are referring to what is showing 120 hrs out over Jamaica?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay, the new Tropical Genesis models are out, with the exception of the .
The area that Ed mentioned above is one of the three areas the is progging. The model is 18 hours old right now so it's hard to say what it was 'seeing'.
It does indicate something of a vortice along the longitude of Jamaica. Depending on which model run you view.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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This area looks like it's ready to explode into something at any time today.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lysis--
Unregistered
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SSEC Wind Shear Analysis - Western Atlantic
(Whenever possible, please try to use links rather than direct images. This is helpful to reduce load time and is very important when the site gets busy because of storm activity.
Thanks, ED)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 03 2005 06:59 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This tropical wave has become much better organized over the past 24 hours and a weak circulation center may be forming just east of Grenada at 12N 61W at 04/11Z. Movement is to the west or west northwest at 15 knots. The model moves this system to the northwest and paints a rather ominous picture for Florida this weekend. While this system is still disorganized and is still many days away from any threat to the U.S., it is certainly a system that needs to be watched closely this week. Additional development of this tropical system seems likely.
ED
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gfs and euro are latched onto this thing. if it develops in the next 48 hrs it's going to spell trouble. just keep your fingers crossed that it scrapes westward along the venezuela coast and doesn't get organized.. nothing good is going to happen if it consolidates.
HF 1614z04july
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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both should be upgraded before tomorrow am
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doug
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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H.F. you sound a little nervous about this wave. It does look very very interesting. Could the future tropical storm in the gulf drag the system up toward Florida ? It looks like theres a good chance of it to intensify, and plenty of warm water to help it grow....Where`s Clark ?, he knows the scoop.....Wow! July is off to a good start and the two monster months to come. Who`s going to win and who`s going to loose in the 2005 Hurricane Landfall game is the biggest wonderment in the back of all of are minds. We can only play the game and hope that the dice land in our favor..........Gotta a feeling there`s going to be a lot of talk about tropical weather come fall time, I pray my coast and neighborhood are not part of that conversation ...........Weatherchef
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The high pressure ridge is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as more extensive troughiness/low pressure develops over the central part of the US towards the middle of this week. Whatever is in the Caribbean should begin to move more northerly on that alone. And yes, the remnants of TD3/Cindy will help weaken the outer portion of the Bermuda High even more. There may be some slight similarities to TD3 and the E. Carib wave and Bonnie/Charley last year. 97L is definitely something to keep an eye. A few of the forecasting models have even suggested the potential for a significant hurricane approaching Florida by the weekend.
It's watch and wait for now. I'm out...
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Just for the halibut (notice the non curse word ?), what side of Florida do you think ?..Looks more east side to me, down near the Keys and south Florida....Who knows...Some thing to really keep an eye on though.........I can feel the adrenaline flowing already just knowing what the possibilties for the next few days are with this system........Eyes to the south east mates.......Weatherchef
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Right now, I'm thinking the western side of Florida. Also, the small differences in the 4 and 5 day positions from will make a big difference as to where the system really is. By Thursday, Floridians (hopefully) will be able to make an informed decision on how to prepare for TD 4.
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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It is difficult to believe that, realistically, I may have to prepare for a hurricane by the end of this week. I suppose we better hurry up and get the roof on. 
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cheers
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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I know what you mean. My shingles where just delivered last week and I know they will not be installed by this weekend. This system feels like a "Charley" 
Liz
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well ,right now everyone from the gulf coast over to the east coast of Fl.,Will have to watch this one.It is just to early to know where she will end up.Anyone know the last time we had 4 named storms this early?It's time to get in the seat and fast'ën your seatbelts,it going to be a very bumpy ride.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I tell you one thing, if I lived in the Keys, I`d be getting prepared for some action. If the storm moves west of there they still have to deal with the northern and the eastern side of the hurricane, generally are the most aggressive qaudrants in any storm. Actually, its a little early to tell exactly where its heading , things chould change with every update. The southern end of Florida on both sides should be ready for action just in case they become a target......Wow and its just the first week of July...........Weatherchef
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i don't think the keys or southern florida will be hit, they could get some outer bands or moisture, but if i lived anywhere from Panama City to Pensacola to Mobile to even Gulfport, MIssissippi i'd be keeping a very close eye on The Menice over the next few days.
Good Luck Gulf Coasters.
.Ryan.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I don`t know if this is true, but I was under the belief that when tropical systems generally hit the eastern Carribbean Sea this time of the year that historically they tend to fizzle out until they hit the Gulf or western Caribbean until now. I know I read about this sometime ago , I just don`t know where......?????????...Weatherchef
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Looks like my ideas are now rather outdated. Earlier yesterday, many of the models showed a track into the FL Peninsula...now they are further west. Today's model runs have also formed an amazing consensus...dead towards the north Gulf Coast. Model agreement like that is hard to argue with, and I'm not going to argue against the models myself.
Unfortunetly, the intensity trends have been pointing upwards since yestearday. is really one to watch. Even thought I was expecting a strong hurricane season, I never would have thought that we would be seeing a threat like this in early July. 
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Well, think back to , where the models oscillated between a northern and southern landfall. People are invariably hyped up about this, but what we need to watch out for is trends. One thing I do know that this area really doesn't need a big hurricane now, as people are still living in FEMA trailers.
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cheers
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