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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched
      #38240 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:35 PM

4:00PM 6.July.2005
Check out Ed Dunham's thoughts on Dennis in the blog below this article. A new update will come later tonight here. Biggest thing to remember is the area and uncertainty of the forecast beyond 36 hours or so remains very high. The "Cone of error" is very large, do not focus on the line in the projection graphics. Especially with this system.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Cindy, arguably briefly a hurricane, is now making landfall along the Lousiana coastline. It's pressure is back up a bit, precluding it from being classified as a hurricane. Still, I think a few folks along that coastline may be surprised by what happens with the system. Rain and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats from the storm, despite the higher-than-expected wind speeds, but those along the coast will still have to deal with some fairly strong winds as the storm makes landfall.





Dennis has strengthened a little more tonight and probably will gain even more strength tomorrow. The future path of Dennis is still unclear. The latest projection was shifted slightly to the right while model guidance is spread from the Houston area to the Florida Big Bend out to 5 days, making it something the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this week. That and the added possibilty of steering currents breaking down if the storm reaches the Gulf, considerbly complicates the matter. This could cause the storm to stall out in the Gulf of Mexico for a bit. As a large, major hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center's new intensity forecast for Dennis has it becoming a major hurricane in three days, something that would make it the first such storm of the year. This is a substantial jump from the 5p advisory, which only called for it reaching to about 90-95mph in peak intensity. It's entirely possible, considering some of the guidance and if the storm misses most of the landmasses, that the storm could become even stronger than forecast; it's also possible that it could interact with land and never reach major status. It's important to note, the conditions ahead of Dennis are very positive for strengthening. So even the Hurricane Center's estimates may be conservative.

Remember that the long range "Cone" on the left has a fairly large error. It still implies that all of the coastline along the Gulf will need to watch it, including Florida. Those in the Gulf watching the storm should do just that -- watch it -- and start to review those hurricane checklists and supply cabinets, just in case. Be prepared, even if it looks like it will miss your area.

Will Dennis follow the track along nicely? Will it slide more to the west, curve sooner than thought to the north? All of that would have little effect on the short term forecast, but a great effect on the 5 day position.

Three aircraft are out and about looking at the storms, one in Cindy, a NOAA research one for Dennis, and an Air Force plane for Dennis as well.

We'll be watching it tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week, with more to come in the morning. Maps and more will arrive shortly.

Event Related Links

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Cindy:
Animated Model Plot of Cindy
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Cindy
Color Satellite of Gulf of Mexico
Mobile Bay Long range Radar
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
New Orleans Long range radar
Visible Satellite Loop of Cindy

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis

Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #38241 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:42 PM

Animated Model Plot of Dennis This one has it more east.I don't have that bad feeling yet,but I am starting to see a more northern curve.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #38243 - Tue Jul 05 2005 10:51 PM

***DENNIS FORECAST TO BE CATEGORY 3 AT LANDFALL IN CUBA***

Forecast Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/060227.shtml


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: dem05]
      #38244 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:00 PM

Are they shifting Dennis more to the east now?I have not seen it on the projected path maps.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38245 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:00 PM

Looking @ http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html I would have to agree w/ you

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: dem05]
      #38246 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:01 PM

People all laong the gulf coast better be watching this one. it is to far out to see or even speculate where it will make landfall. but NO better watch out. Hopefully cuba will mess with it.

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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38247 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:05 PM

If this thing misses land masses it could be an extremely poweful hurricane......looks like they are calling for it to move east a little more.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38248 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:09 PM

Read Stewart's 11pm Disco...very good writing (as always from him) and explains the official track vs. the modelling....not good news for the FL Panhandle/AL/MS.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: bob895]
      #38249 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:11 PM

I dont see where they have shifted Dennis more E, infact its been more W. Not to say it wont hit Florida, it could still move more E in the models.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: bob895]
      #38250 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:13 PM

I am starting to get that bad feeling for south east Florida.It slowed from 20mph to 17mph.If this trend continues south Florida I believe will be under the gun.I will spare you the details why,most of you know why.Also what is very scary is that it is only July 5th!!!I see many long nights and very early mornings ahead.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
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Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: wxman007]
      #38251 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:13 PM

Jason is right that is not good news for that area.

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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: scottsvb1]
      #38252 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:14 PM

youre right...meant to say west* sorry about that

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: bob895]
      #38253 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:17 PM

Follow the dots,it is curving north.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: wxman007]
      #38254 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:19 PM

Jason - I agree though I think this has ramifications for even the florida peninsula. Weak steering definitely could be mean trouble for everyone, not just from a direct hit, but also the amount of rain that could be associated with this storm.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 15
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #38255 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:23 PM

Are there any upper level patterns that could cause a turn to the NE either towards the Atlantic or to the central FL west coast?

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maybe maybe not
Unregistered




Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38256 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:24 PM

Follow the models NHC bias the plot to the right to be on the safe side,latest run on models show a more shift to the left.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
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Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: scottsvb1]
      #38257 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:26 PM

It's in the 11pm discussion..they are going with the extreme eastern side of the guidance envelope. So they have shifted it a bit more east.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38258 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:26 PM

the discussion wasn't available yet, but saw that red (cat 3) forecast point near western cuba on the wunderground storm track... it's abnormal for this time of year, but that storm track looks sound given the synoptic picture. somebody around here who likes to put category fives in mobile bay is probably wanting that cone to aim someplace else right now.
cindy didn't get the hurricane nod. there's some decent supportive evidence for it having briefly been there this evening; perhaps it will be post-analyzed as such. worked for gaston. track is veering right now... most of the weather is from new orleans southeast across the delta marshes; mississippi coast will be getting the whole blustery/driving rain business until after sunrise tomorrow. by early or mid afternoon cindy will be down to depression status, and what the accuwx guys are calling tropical rainstorm cindy. probably rain a bunch here thursday... al/ga get it tomorrow.
dennis will probably be a hurricane tomorrow afternoon. there isn't much climatology for storms doing what this one is doing in july.... cat 4s and 5s are extremely rare prior to august, so nobody's willing to front the idea that it goes up into that territory. Dennis is slowing down some, though... i think the CDO is going to stay put now. by the time it gets to cuba, i'd expect the central pressure to be 950mb or lower... with an august or september storm that looks like Dennis does. we're going to find out if the same logic applies to a storm during early july. better hope cindy has left a good upwelled streak across the central gulf, because there isn't a great deal of land to weaken Dennis along the way in, and the models imply smooth sailing in terms of atmospheric conditions.
HF 0426z06july


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: HanKFranK]
      #38259 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:33 PM

this is just amazing i mean it the 5th of july and the NHC has an intensity forcast for a major hurricane that could possibly get stronger than that!!

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Cindy Landfalls, Dennis still Being Watched [Re: HanKFranK]
      #38260 - Tue Jul 05 2005 11:36 PM

This from the 11pm Discussion (which is now available):

Quote:

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN..OR RIGHT...SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.





There ya go...it's a doozy of a discussion, too.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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