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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
probably resuming a more wnw course soon... [Re: AgentB]
      #39102 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:11 PM

and all interests from New Orleans to Tampa better pucker up....

Dennis is coming..

cat 4 before it hits Cuba....

cat 2 1/2 after cuba...

cat 4, briefly 5...and back to a 3-4 when it hits land...

worst case scenario....steering currents stall....and the hurricane does too.

supposedly camille stalled..


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FL_Grasshopper
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Tarpon Springs, Fl 28.15N 82.74W
Re: Plots... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #39103 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:11 PM

Quote:

WEST COAST OF FL COULD SEE WINDS OF 55+ MPH IN GUSTS ALREADY FORECASTED TO HIT ST. PETERSBURG AND ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST!!! Close to the intensity of H. Jeanne when it crossed into Hillsborough last year...but less intense by about 18 mph (Jeanne had gusts to 78 mph in Pinellas County, this forecast is for 60):

That was right near my house, highest gusts were at Anderson Park in Tarpon less than 2 miles from home... Hope this one will not be as bad, I have grown fond of my power....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...9&map.y=156




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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39104 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:12 PM

Flamommy, If you are in a mobile home, you may want leave an evaquation option open just to be safe. Severe weather may also be a factor across the west coast of the peninsula.

--------------------
cheers


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Models [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39105 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:13 PM

Will they move Discovery back indoors? I can't remember last year but it seems like they left which ever shuttle it was out there during one of the storms that passed by.

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Lysis]
      #39106 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:14 PM

yes unfortunately we are in a mobile home which therefore any evacuations occur...we automatically get evacuated....im just hoping that we do....just in case it does decide to make bee line for us....but even on that note i dont want to have to...hope thats understandable....well thank you for the update

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Shuttle?? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #39107 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:16 PM

Richie,
I am watching Orlando Channel 6 and they just said that the shuttle is still scheduled to take off Wednesday, but that NASA is watching Dennis very closely. Sorry, that's all I have for now.
Angie
Firefighter/Paramedic - Orange County

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
track [Re: Missers]
      #39108 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:16 PM

OK. I can't trust my eyes so I actually drew a line on the monitor between the forecast position points on the visible satelite. It is true that it is following the same heading of the NHC forecast. Just a few miles north but definately following the forecast, as of now.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Plots... [Re: FL_Grasshopper]
      #39109 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:18 PM

Has anyone seen or heard any info on the upcoming update @ 5:00 pm?

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Missers
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Models [Re: Katie]
      #39110 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:18 PM

Quote:

Will they move Discovery back indoors? I can't remember last year but it seems like they left which ever shuttle it was out there during one of the storms that passed by.



There were not any shuttles out there last year.

If NASA does decide to move Discovery, it will be back to the VAB.

Edited to add: If there is a risk of winds 69 mph or higher, NASA could roll the shuttle back to the Vehicle Assembly Building.


Edited by Missers (Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Plots... [Re: GERRYL]
      #39111 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:19 PM

A bit too early, info usually starts rolling in around 4:30 - 4:40

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Plots... [Re: Doombot!]
      #39112 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Dennis could be upgraded to a category three in the next update.

In fact, I would be a little supprised if he wasn't.

--------------------
cheers


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Models [Re: Katie]
      #39113 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Wow, I never thought of that . After all this wait and redesigning on that Shuttle you know they won`t leave that baby out in the weather especially if it gets real nasty. If they leave it out its a good sign for us over here on the Space Coast. Gee I wonder whats going on up there at the cape right now ???..........

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
What a more NW track means for FL [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39114 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

ftlaudbob has been continually predicting a more northerly track into south FL. While no one certainly would like to see this storm in their backyard, Bob's scenario might actually be a course of least regret. A further west track, ultimately striking the northern Gulf coast from Pensacola to New Orleans would be potentially devastating wherever it makes landfall (especially New Orleans). A slightly more northwest track, scraping along the FL west coast could be potentially devastating for the Tampa area.
This more northward prediction of Bob's would track the center of Dennis right along the full length of the Cuban mountains before emerging over the FL Straits. A South FL landfall would be from a FAR weaker storm than any of the other scenarios described above. Those mountains would tear Dennis apart....I think he might even emerge over the Straits below hurricane strength.
Don't think my post here is jumping on the SE FL bandwagon,....all I am saying is that SHOULD this be the ultimate track, it might be the least destructive.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

--Lou


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39115 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Quote:

thank you so much but we are ready to evacuate if necessary....we are in an evacuation zone automatically...so no worries on boarding up....just waiting for the go ahead...and we are there....thank you all so much for helping me understand all these things that are possible and so forth...


As much as the models have waved back and forth, their average position has remained relatively stable. I think the NHC forecast has been 'wiggleing' a little bit (so it looks like they're doing something <grin>), but again their forecast has been that this storm will be well offshore almost since the first day. What has changed more is the INTENSITY and SIZE of this storm. A small Charley sized storm probably wouldn't affect you at all at that distance, but this is a much larger storm so the edges got closer to you. The strongest winds will be from the S-SW in your area (don't park on the NORTH side of a large tree I feel that you won't have to evacuate only that you should include those plans as a possibility, albeit not a great possibility.

Having said that, we are *still* 2+ days from its closest approach in your area and there is time for the steering to change and drive the storm closer. It is also possible that it could be pushed a bit further away. In either event, worry and fear will NOT help you or anyone else. Planning and preparation will reduce the risk of injury so if you've done that, it is out of our hands and worry won't change the outcome.

I'm only a few miles further than you from the storm and we are in the 50% chance of TS winds. So, I expect breezy condition, perhaps some unneeded rain and hopefully NO tornados. Actually, I 'fear' the tornados far more than Dennis but tornados can occur even in a summer thunderstorm, so again, watch, prepare and relax!

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
notice Dennis growing? [Re: Doombot!]
      #39116 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:24 PM

category 4 within 18 hours....

(i'm allowed to make real wild predictions, cause I don't know no better)


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Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla 28.47N 80.80W
Re: Models [Re: Missers]
      #39117 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:24 PM

NASA is planning on staging the crawler transporter at the Pad tomorrow at 0445. They have not made thge decision to rollback yet.

Mike


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Fox news [Re: Ricreig]
      #39118 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:25 PM

Dennis's eye has contracted...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
cheers


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
State of Emergency [Re: Ricreig]
      #39119 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:27 PM

Bay News 9 just announced that Governer Bush has declared a State of Emergency for the state of Florida because of Hurricane Dennis "concerns".

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Fox news [Re: Lysis]
      #39120 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:28 PM

what does that mean? "Dammit Jim, I'm a firefighter, not a meteorologist"

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Eyewall Replacment Cycle [Re: Lysis]
      #39121 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:29 PM

Looks like Dennis is going through an eyewall replacment cycle. I think he has a shot to be a Cat. 4 sometime.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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