mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Colleen, I don't understand it either....
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iloathedennis
Unregistered
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Quote:
Hi! We'll be arriving in Destin Sat morning for vacation....anyone know anything about the stom and that area?
I live in Destin and it doesn't look so good right now. We're evacuating late Saturday/Early Sunday. We'll just have to wait and see.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Colleen i dont know either, but our local met just said that high off fla east coast
was found to be quite a bit weaker than prev. thought and should move east
bringing closer to fla
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at this map, I see a weakness between the high's that runs right along the west coast of FL. Is this map a statement of current weather conditions or a forecast?
If the situation as presented in the map pans out, it looks like a West Coast scraper all the way to the Panhandle 
--Lou
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Having the high move to the east allows the chance for to move in closer to the west coast of Fl.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
So...basically what they are saying is that this will be CLOSER to the western Florida peninsula because the weak high pressure ridge is moving to the east?
I know I must sound like the stupidest person in the world, but I'm not quite sure EXACTLY whether this is GOOD or BAD for Central Florida, LOL!
Thanks for being so patient! 
Collene, Im right with you. At times the met terminology really confuses me so I just keep reading and ask questions at times. I just to know plain and simple...how will effect west central florida if it brushes by etc etc etc.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Unbelieveable.
Since 2004, it's as if these storms have a fetish for Florida or something. I woke up this morning and saw the NW motion, perhaps thinking that it may be a wobble. Then I saw the model runs...and became a little more concerned. Obviously, the ridge is remaining in place SOMEWHAT, but ' NW motion perhaps shows a repositioning of the ridge.
The next 24 hours are CRITICAL as to what this storm is going to do. Watching intently in Florida...
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kerry
Unregistered
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Are they suggesting evacuation? The condo we're staying at is on the bay side I think the street name is Indian something . Any info would be greatly appreciated!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Current conditions....mostly surfacs obs.... pressure/winds/temps...etc.
Product Description:
>>Wide Area: A surface analysis for synoptic-scale systems with isobars every 4 millibars (2 millibars in the tropics) issued four times a day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC). Analysis covers the region from 20°S to 50°N between the Greenwich Meridian westward to 160°W.
Southwest North Atlantic: A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from the Equator to 40°N, 40°W to 110°W. Issued four times a day at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Caribbean Sea: A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from 5°N to 25°N, 50°W to 95°W. Issued four times a day at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Gulf of Mexico: A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from 15°N to 35°N, 75°W to 105°W. Issued four times a day at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 07 2005 09:42 PM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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I've been reading this forum all day with interest (despite the fact that I'm not allowed to be on the Internet while at work). Am concerned that Ft. Myers will be in the dread right front quadrant, as the storm passes by to the south and west....
I had a question regarding storm surge. I have an aunt who lives on a canal that leads out to the GOM. How far/close does have to be before she will feel storm surge effects? The only data I've been able to find regarding storm surge is for a direct hit. Thanks!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Colleen. A weaker ridge would be bad for Central Florida. A direct hit is unlikely, IMHO. However, It puts us smack dab in some really heavy rain bands along with being in the tornadic quadrant of the storm.
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Jim
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Destin is in the cone...if not a direct hit definite potential for bad weather...don't know if you're an out of stater or not but I'm sure you're there for the beach...definitly not good beach weather this weekend. 
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turkeyman
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Picayune, MS
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Hi there everyone. Been just reading and not posting this season. Been a storm tracker since Hurricane Betsy in '65 and always plot and listen to all the broadcasts I can. We had an old forecaster in New Orleans that used the old Marks-A-Lot and poster paper, years ago, to draw his projections of what a particular storm would do. He had some old adages that stuck in my head over the years that more times than not, prove true. One of them was to avoid forecasts of any storm that is going to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
That place has a mind of its own and right now there are few steering currents that I can see. Some small ones, but sometimes when a storm gets to Cat 4 or 5, they do what they want, anyway. I suppose about Sat morning we'll all be up and taking notice, moreso than now. I do know that there are lines at the gas pumps and Wal Mart looks like the day after Thanksgiving sale. Go figure......
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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As of right now, if the forecast pans out, Destin is not a place to be this weekend. God forbid they take another hit. Who knows what section of road and buildings would be washed away this time.
If I had a trip planned for Destin this weekend, I would probably cancel tomorrow if the forecast continues without a siginifcant jog to the west.
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Jim
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let\'s chill out
Unregistered
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Once had a very wise commander that once told me:
"son, don't l your shorts until you actually see the enemy".
I think a lot of you central Florida folks are on here too much, scaring yourselves and others silly and using up space that the panhandle folks are gonna need.
I'm in central florida.. I'm ready as possible for anything. You should be too.
Good luck to all along the gulf.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i have to totally disagree with you...i for one are on here to teach myself things and learn from professionals and the ones who are very knowledgable....its not so much as scaring ourselves but being aware and keeping up to date.... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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unknown
Unregistered
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Quote:
Good luck to all along the gulf.
Thankyou! We need all we can get.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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possible....extremely warm waters...but most likely a strong 4...5's are rare...
probably a 5 when gets in the gulf....
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 22
Time: 21:08:30Z
Latitude: 19°N
Longitude: 76.7°W
Location: 75 mi N of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2726 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SSE (161°) @ 139 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 14 mi ENE (75°)
Sea level pressure: 956 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 45°F at 10023 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 61°F at 9984 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 52°F
Eye character: OPEN N-E
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.05 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 121 KT E QUAD 21:04:50 Z
I am not completely sure how to read these things.....but, aren't surface winds usually calculated as 90% of flight level measurements??? If so, this vortex message from 5:08 pm eastern time means that the surface winds are now around 125mph???? 
Any input from the pros who more fully understand this data would be helpful
--Lou
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
Once had a very wise commander that once told me:
"son, don't l your shorts until you actually see the enemy".
I think a lot of you central Florida folks are on here too much, scaring yourselves and others silly and using up space that the panhandle folks are gonna need.
I'm in central florida.. I'm ready as possible for anything. You should be too.
Good luck to all along the gulf.
Im not scared...really Im not! But if it wasnt for this site I would probably still listen to local mets and think...Tampa is all clear and will not have any impact from . I do not want to be caught off guard and then it is too late to leave if necesarry. This site is wonderful. These guys and gals know so much more than I and after years of reading and seeing systems nailed then if I read Tampa will get effected then I trust them. I dont think it is over reacting at all.
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