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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Land O Lakes [Re: Doombot!]
      #39080 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:37 PM

Quote:

Upon request (PM not working properly )

Land O Lakes 28.24 N 82.46 W



Everybody who wants coordinates for a specific city/town/etc., here's another link (I got a million of them; I'm connected to the web ). Go to HomeTownLocator at http://www.hometownlocator.com/, put the city and state in the top two boxes, and hit the CitySearch button. You might get a couple of possibilities to chose from (for instance, Jacksonville Florida will give you 4), so if you do chose one. The latitude and longitue will be the last line in a green-dashed box just a little way down the page. If the longitude is negative (and it will be for all US locations...) then it indicates degrees west, so -81.39 is 81.39 W.

Hope this lets everybody get what they need without swamping a few people looking these up for everybody...

Jax Chris


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39081 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:39 PM

MIAMI -- The Florida Keys ordered an evacuation of tourists and other nonresidents Thursday as a strengthening Hurricane Dennis stormed through the Caribbean on a course that forecasters said might bring it to the state by the weekend.
Monroe County officials ordered that visitors begin leaving the low-lying Keys at noon and ordered the evacuation of mobile home residents beginning at 6 p.m. The Keys were under a hurricane watch, which means winds of at least 74 mph and storm surges are possible by late Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, including Miami and Naples.

Forecasters said that although they still couldn't tell where Dennis and its 110-mph winds would hit the U.S., residents on the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana to Florida should be watching the storm.

"The central and east Gulf coasts are the most threatened," said Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the center. "This is the time to take a little bit of action to get some of the rudimentary hurricane supplies."

The skies in the Keys were still sunny and clear Thursday, but people were already preparing for Dennis. Four hurricanes struck Florida last year. Although none hit the Keys, the island chain was evacuated three times, causing the loss of at least $50 million in visitor-related sales.

www.wftv.com is the source of this article


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Fox news [Re: Jax Chris]
      #39082 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:41 PM

fox news met was just on TV, seems like she was cautioning the western peninsula more than the panhandle. Useful Image here

They are also saying they will be talking to an expert in the field shortly. Not sure who it is


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Fox news [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39083 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:42 PM

Jamie, I just saw that too.

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Katie]
      #39084 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:45 PM

has anyone heard anything on the tampa bay areas news about warnings watches and stuff?...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Plots... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39085 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:47 PM

My eyes must see the same I am seeing it NE of the forecast points since 1445 UTC. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fox news [Re: Katie]
      #39086 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:47 PM

Why we can't believe the models? Here is why.
[image]http://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/f11_20_2.htm[/image]


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39087 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:49 PM

This would be the best page to check for warnings for Hillsborough County

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/FLZ051.php?zo=1&city=Hillsborough+County


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39088 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:50 PM

tyvm....i appreciate it

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Bastardi [Re: pcola]
      #39089 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:51 PM

Anyone with AccuweatherPro that can tell me if he has changed his thoughts. FWIW, I believe he has wobbled back west again. He may be doing the two step around the mountains. Don't kno whay that seems to occur so frequently.....Maybe the mountains somehow interrupt the steering currents...I don't know, but he could easily move wes or WNW south of Cuba for a while.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Shuttle?? [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39090 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:53 PM

Any news on the space shuttle being moved? I know that would be a good indicator if the east coast of Florida were to get any descent wind effects. Does any one know the minimum wind speed needed in that area to move the shuttle?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #39091 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:55 PM

I went and pulled up the 0Z and 12Z runs of the FSU MM5 (what's done of the 12Z run, at least), and compared the two, and the track did indeed shift just slightly west while it was offshore.

Since they only provide exact coordinates and other data in their archives (I can't find it for the current in-progress run), I pulled both maps into photoshop and approximated the positions based on the blue plot lines and the long/lat per pixel ratios for each plot (since they are at different scales right now).

Admitted it was a rough comparison, but from the 0Z to 12Z runs, two rough points offshore of Florida went as follows:

Off Ft. Myers: 26N 83.55W --> 26N 83.71W
Off Tampa: 28N 84.42W --> 28N 84.79W

Once they finish the current run and get the numbers into the archives, I can tell for sure. Oh, and speaking of the numbers in the archives, does anyone know what the last number on each data line represents? I see the format is latitude/longitude/pressure/???, and I can't tell what the last one is. I was thinking wind speed, but the numbers seem too low for that. They do, though, show charts for "Maximum lowest model level wind in knots", which is vaguely confusing; is that supposed to represent a max wind level, or a minimum wind level? I imagine it means "Maximum low level wind", and is just phrased clumsily.

--------------------
Londovir


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39093 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:57 PM

WEST COAST OF FL COULD SEE WINDS OF 55+ MPH IN GUSTS ALREADY FORECASTED TO HIT ST. PETERSBURG AND ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST!!! Close to the intensity of H. Jeanne when it crossed into Hillsborough last year...but less intense by about 18 mph (Jeanne had gusts to 78 mph in Pinellas County, this forecast is for 60):

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...9&map.y=156


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39094 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:58 PM

Perhaps Dennis is just a bit North of the red plot points but not by much....

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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Londovir]
      #39095 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:59 PM

... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
storm surge in the Lower Keys is expected to range from 3 to 5 feet.
Upper and Middle Keys can expect 1 to 2 feet of storm surge.

... Wind impacts...
tropical storm force winds are expected to approach the Florida Keys
late Friday afternoon. Conditions will continue to deteriorate
Friday afternoon and Friday night.

... Marine impacts...
winds and seas will gradually increase this evening... as Hurricane
Dennis approaches. Therefore... small craft should remain in port
until the affects of Hurricane Dennis have passed. Tropical storm
force winds are expected to reach the Florida Straits early Friday
afternoon... and hurricane force winds are possible late Friday
night. Furthermore... shower activity will increase tonight with
increasing squalls expected Friday afternoon.

... Rainfall impacts...
the Florida Keys can expect to receive 4 to 6 inches of rainfall in
association with Hurricane Dennis.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #39096 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:00 PM

Quote:

Although modest, the pressures along the East Coast of FL (Ormond Beach) have been dropping slightly this afternoon. Link below will provide information from our site. The rain guage is not functioning properly and the entire system is scheduled to be upgraded on Tuesday...

Michael




Thanks for the link Mike. That station is just a few blocks from my house.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39097 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:03 PM

Quote:

has anyone heard anything on the tampa bay areas news about warnings watches and stuff?...


...only the following from the Tampa NWS:

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 86. Windy, with a east wind 17 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a southeast wind between 29 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 51 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 89. Windy, with a south wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

___

This is consistant with a hurricane well to the west, 100-150 miles. You can expect tropical storm winds and associated rain if the forecast track holds.

There is a useful URL at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145724.shtml?tswindloop?

Which should relieve you a bit. Being in a TS, bad enough, is NOT the same as being in the eyewall of a Cat III hurricane. Flooding of low-lying areas due to the rain, some tree and limb damage and possible power outages are the most likely result of this kind of a brush with Dennis. Again, this is based upon a forecast track which actually hasn't changed too much in the last two days. It looks about 25 miles closer than yesterday but still well offshore of Tampa Bay area.

Your best bet is to relax, take a deep breath, ensure your car is gassed up, just in case the NHC is drastically wrong, and keep posted. North of us, up in the panhandle, the outlook is not so 'rosy' by comparison, unfortunately but the advice is the same but includes evacuation plans and boarding up windows and for sure, food and water supplies, full gas tank and medications for a week or two if needed.

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Ricreig]
      #39098 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:06 PM

thank you so much but we are ready to evacuate if necessary....we are in an evacuation zone automatically...so no worries on boarding up....just waiting for the go ahead...and we are there....thank you all so much for helping me understand all these things that are possible and so forth...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Missers
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Shuttle?? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #39100 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:09 PM

Quote:

Any news on the space shuttle being moved? I know that would be a good indicator if the east coast of Florida were to get any descent wind effects. Does any one know the minimum wind speed needed in that area to move the shuttle?



NASA has not announced plans to move Discovery yet. I am sure they will be deciding soon, since it's a long process. yesterday I read what the minimum was, but now I can't find it.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Models [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39101 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:10 PM

Models look like they shifted even more to the east, which explains why fox news was concerned about the west coast. NHC is now on the westernmost side of the guidance, with the UKMET the only outlier. I would expect to see an adjustment to the east in the NHC forecast track at 5pm.

]http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif


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