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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis
      #38902 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:01 AM

4:50PM
Hurricane Dennis is now a Category 3 storm, more to come soon. Forecast track remains quite similar to the last one. Overall, the track has been numerically close to right on so far.

Hurricane Warnings are now posted for the lower Florida Keys, as tropical storm force winds may be approaching there tomorrow afternoon.

2:40PM

Pressure in Dennis has fallen to 956mb, possibly putting it over the edge for a Category 3 storm. We'll know in a bit.
2:00PM
Dennis is now 110MPH winds, very near Category 3 strength. And still about 65 miles away from Kingston in Jamaica. (To the Northeast)

Visitor and Nonresident evacuations have been ordered for the Florida Keys.

Meteorologists Clark Evans and Ed Dunham have discussions about Dennis, which you can find below this article or by clicking the Met blogs link on the left.

Original Update
The Florida Keys are now under a Hurricane Watch, including Florida Bay. South Florida from Golden Beach on the east coast, to Bonita Beach on the West coast are under a tropical storm watch.


It is still approaching Jamaica, and has a chance to strengthen some more. Interaction with Cuba should weaken it a bit before it gets in the Gulf, how much is up for debate, however.

An eye is now apparant on Visible Satellite Images



This was forced because of track uncertainties in the models. Check the Monroe County EM link below for Keys Evac information.

The track still takes it toward the Western Panhandle... More to come soon.

Event Related Links

Monroe County/Florida Keys Emergency Management Bulletins

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis


Color Sat of Dennis

Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays

RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #38912 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:24 AM

looks like Jamaica is about to be hammered

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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38914 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:28 AM

Wow... he is opening up his eye:
This is incredible. I remember when he was just a blob of convection. It is like watching a child grow up. ...Who just happens to become a mass murderer
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 11:37 AM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #38915 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:30 AM

from the disscusion. full at the home page. FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF Dennis IS APPARENTLY WEAKER
THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL
STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT Dennis HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK
AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.


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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


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Re: About to hit Jamaica [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38916 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:31 AM

Quote:

looks like Jamaica is about to be hammered


Sure does; at least it looks like they're going to be on the south side of the eye, so that'll help them somewhat. Unless Dennis decides to drop down and pick up some rum, mon... Doesn't look like Cuba and the US Gulf Coast are going to be so lucky; somebody's going to be on the windward side for both of those.

Jax Chris


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #38917 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:31 AM

I know exactly what you mean.

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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38919 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:33 AM

Would expect a cat 3 hurricane at next advisory.

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hurricane_run
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Re: About to hit Jamaica [Re: Jax Chris]
      #38920 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:33 AM

and that is not good.

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FlaRebel
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Skeetobite's Maps [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38921 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:34 AM

I assume on the second map the location for 121 MPH winds is 8 AM Saturday??

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pcola
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Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: FlaRebel]
      #38922 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:39 AM

Accuweather is still sticking to its guns and saying Mississippi.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: bob895]
      #38923 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 AM

once it gets to 100kts (major status) it should be interesting to see how it acts.
( It really interested in CERC in hurricanes) and how they effect strength and direction.


( My thoughts and prayers go out to those in London.)


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: pcola]
      #38924 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 AM

What is everyone predicting for rainfall amounts when Dennis reaches the U.S??

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hurricane_run
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #38925 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:45 AM

that eye is clearing up that is not a good sign. When is the next recon ETA at the storm?

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Bloodstar
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38926 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:49 AM

Quote:

once it gets to 100kts (major status) it should be interesting to see how it acts.
( It really interested in CERC in hurricanes) and how the effct strenght.






The way I visualize things, if the storm is large and major, it's going to tend to go straight. there will be wobbles, but it usually sticks to that path until something really starts to steer it. Once it hits Cuba... weakens a bit... I think that's when you'll see the potential for a turn. We shall see...

And to think, I'm heading to Atlanta in a few hours, and I'm supposed to drive back sunday day/evening.

Guess I'll be watching to see if I'm even going to be allowed back!


-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: FlaRebel]
      #38927 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:49 AM

Quote:

I assume on the second map the location for 121 MPH winds is 8 AM Saturday??




Oops! Good catch. Fixed.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #38928 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:51 AM

12Z GFS further east through 36 hours....looks to be crossing Key West on this run.

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XLM
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38929 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:53 AM

I think the eye is just a little bit north of the original track...

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hurricane_run
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: XLM]
      #38930 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:57 AM

there is always going to be wobbles and changes in course. the storm will not go along the predicted path. but is it goes over cubas mountains for awhile maybe it will weaken it somewhat before it can cause considerable damage.

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Clark
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #38931 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:02 PM

Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:

* Dennis' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.

* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; Dennis may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.

* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the FSUMM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.

More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: bob895]
      #38932 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:06 PM

I predict the rain to be horizontal....

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


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Hurricane Recon Flight Schedules [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38933 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:07 PM

Quote:

When is the next recon ETA at the storm?


(/me playing Mr. Links today...) NOAA makes the Plan of the Day (and plan of tomorrow) available through http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml. The current plan is:
Code:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT WED 06 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM Dennis
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z A. O8/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0404A Dennis B. NOAA9 0504A Dennis
C. 07/1430Z C. 07/1800Z
D. 19.0N 77.4W D. NA
E. 07/1700Z - 08/0030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000-45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 08/0000Z A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0604A Dennis B. NOAA2 0704A Dennis
C. 07/1800Z C. 08/0430Z
D. NA D. 20.4N 79.8W
E. NA E. 08/0530Z - 08/0900Z
F. 24,000 T0 30,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE
A. 08/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0804A Dennis
C. 08/0800Z
D. 21.1N 80.9W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A G-IV
FLIGHT FOR 09/0000Z.



So it looks like the next recon fix is by flight 1, and is at 1800Z (line A), or 2 p.m. EDT. The plane will be on site at 1700Z (1 p.m. EDT) and stay there until 08/0030Z (8:30 p.m. today EDT, line E). Unless I'm reading this totally wrong

Edited to put in and discuss today's plan instead of tomorrow's

Jax Chris

Edited by Jax Chris (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:35 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #38934 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:13 PM

Quote:

Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:

* Dennis' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.

* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; Dennis may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.

* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the FSUMM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.

More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.


When you say futher and further east,does that mean you think S FL maybe more under the gun?Also the eye is north of Jamaica,not really THAT close. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_satellite2.asp

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38935 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:17 PM

Wondering - When Dennis hits Cuba heading at an angle, would one expect the land/mountains cause it to bend more toward the West, North or have no influence on the general direction?

Thanks


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daviking
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Dougyd]
      #38936 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:21 PM

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.

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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38937 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:22 PM

Those new models runs coming out are a little too close to the coast for comfort.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Cuba influence [Re: Dougyd]
      #38938 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:23 PM

If goes over the mountainous...is that a word?...will have an effect on the intensity.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: pcola]
      #38939 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:24 PM

Quote:

Accuweather is still sticking to its guns and saying Mississippi.




well, once the 12Z model runs come in, they will probably reconsider...maybe the CMC model will be correct all along?


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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38940 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

People here in Pensacola are going nuts with this thing. We have always been around the center of the model tracking, but it is just a hurry up and wait type situation. I hate to wish this thing on someone else, but Ivan really tore us up in Sept of last year.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
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Gulf temps [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38941 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

it's always hotter in July and August in the Gulf...than in September...when hurricanes usually hit...

Camille hit in August....

if Gulf Temps are in the 90's....does that translate to a hyper-cane....I mean, not to be an alarmist or anything....but 200 mph winds are possible when the Gulf Temps are that warm....

any feed back on this will be appreciating....I'm just running with possibilities righ now...


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38942 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

The entire west coast of Florida (up through north of Tampa) can expect tropical storm force winds and flooding surge if the current track verifies...

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Now what would be funny is... [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38943 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 PM

if the CMC shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.

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mom2als
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Kissimmee, Fl
Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #38944 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 PM

Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that!

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Accuweather [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38947 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:30 PM

Yeah he is pretty adament with that..MS/LA landfall...believe he's going with UKMET which is the outlier & still persistant on that course.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38948 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:30 PM

Quote:

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.




Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps

Go to:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38949 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:32 PM

If gulf temps are this warm this thing has a chance to be an absolute monster

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




The EYE [Re: MikeC]
      #38950 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:32 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

If you click on forcast points, the eye matches perfevtly


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: st.pete boy]
      #38951 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:33 PM

Not to blow my own horn(I know that that is not what this forum is about)But is seems that what I feared a couple of days ago MAYBE happening.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Re: The EYE [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38952 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:34 PM

Nah...hair to the north.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Now what would be funny is... [Re: jth]
      #38953 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:34 PM

Quote:

if the CMC shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.




Actually , that might be good in that it would imply convergence by the models..


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daviking
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38954 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.




Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps

Go to:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml




WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38955 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:42 PM

which is???

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: mom2als]
      #38956 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:43 PM

Quote:

Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that!




Thanks. Sorry about the errors, had a small problem with the days of the week. This has been fixed.


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tpratch
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38957 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

Quote:


WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.




Nah, they have a cup of water sitting outside of their studio. The put a thermometer in it once a day


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38958 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.
I'm not yet ready to say that the track won't shift back towards the left, however, when the models begin to trend to a certain place over a number of days, it's a pretty good indication. Even if it just HUGS the western peninsula of Florida, those temperatures are going to be a problem. And if it does go over the more moutainous areas of Cuba, it may have time to regroup and explode IF it hits those temperatures.
Notice there's a lot of IFS in there.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Clarks blog [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #38959 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

Thanx for your insight on your blog...very informative.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38960 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:48 PM

Quote:

which is???


That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow Dennis to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 275
Clark [Re: Clark]
      #38961 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:49 PM

So what you are saying is the track may shift a little east but the general NNW motion should continue through landfall. So the exact location of landfall really depends on A) when the NNW turn occurs and B) the exact angle. Ft Walton/Destin still my spot.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38962 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:50 PM

Hey Colleen, better get ready there. 12Z CMC has center going right over Tampa.

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: tpratch]
      #38963 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:50 PM

Looks like our county will be spared......for the time being.......Weatherchef

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Londovir
Weather Guru


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Posts: 100
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38964 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:52 PM

I've been watching the MM5 12Z run being worked on at FSU, and I got to say it's interesting comparing it to the 0Z run from earlier in the day. Being a mathematician, I'm a little disturbed at how so far the plot is concave up versus concave down through 12hrs. In other words, the 0Z run had it 12hrs into southern Cuba by means of an "upside down" bowl curve, whereas the newest run is going upwards into Cuba.

Granted, storms don't have to follow patterns of nice smooth continuous curves...but the concave down pattern from earlier made me think of the bermuda high acting to "shunt" the storm downward and keep it depressed as it moved west. If models start seeing upward concavity, I begin to imagine the high weakening and not preventing the poleward movement as much as it has in the past.

Of course, since my degree is in math, I'm just throwing darts in the wind....a hurricane strength wind, mind you. If we all don't get wiped out by the storm, I'm going to have some great test questions for my Calculus students this fall, though....

Edited by Londovir (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:56 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Posts: 167
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38965 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:55 PM

Steve don't say such a thing!!!!!!!!

I have things I want to do this weekend not things I would "have" to do!!!!

Colleen - hurricane party? j/k


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38966 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:55 PM

With people saying that the gulf temperatures are the highest in 20 years this worries me because we could see one hell of a storm....maybe even cat 5??

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Big Daddy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38967 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:56 PM

Quote:

WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.




Gulf temps reported by all Tampa TV stations are intended for the recreational audience, not for mariners. At least one reports the temp as measured at Clearwater Beach.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38968 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:58 PM

Thanks, Steve.... I needed to hear that like I needed another hole in my head. This has been an insane day. I have the stomach flu, I have relatives visiting London who we are waiting to hear from, my sister-in-law has just been put into the hospital, 34 weeks pregnant with a possibility of delivery in 24 hours because of severely high blood pressure, and now I might be dealing with a large hurricane coming over my head.
At least it's only ONE model doing it...I take a little comfort in that.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38969 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:58 PM

what are you talking about? Link please..

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38970 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:59 PM

sorry to hear about that colleen i hope all is well.....and i know what u mean like we need to be getting prepared...lol....well hope u get to feeling better...and lastnight watching the news one meteorologist said that the ETAH...i think.not for sure...had it going straight up florida....as a cat 4.....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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CMC model [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38971 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:03 PM

They've actually been sticking with that for a couple of days now...wasn't it Donna that did a similiar path?

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Katie
Weather Guru


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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38972 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:04 PM

Colleen - check your pm in a minute.

I pulled up that FSU link someone had posted and every one of the maps show landfall between Panama City and Tampa. There was only one that showed a landfall West of NO.

darn, darn, darn.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38973 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:04 PM

You watch the numbers:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/071431.shtml

They have been going up everyday. Cocoa Beach was a 6% yesterday,
although 11% isn't high, 5% a day can make a difference.


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38974 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:06 PM

again, that is because the storm is getting closer to you. Not that the track has hcanged to bring it closer. I bet you will find that NO has increased it's % as well.

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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Katie]
      #38975 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:08 PM

Can someone post the new FSU link

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38976 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:08 PM

yes i have been watching tampas numbers and went from 5, 7, 10, and now 18....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38977 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:10 PM

As Dennis draws nearer to the US mainland it is natural that the numbers will get higher.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38978 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:12 PM

Quote:

It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.



I don't think that he's seeing it at 91 degees now, either. Sea Surface Temperature map at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.cf.gif shows temperatures to be about 86 deg. F on the north side of Cuba, and a nice big patch about 82 deg. F just south of Pensacola. Looks like it's currently running about 84 off most of the Florida west coast.

Jax Chris


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 225
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #38979 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:12 PM

i totally understand that...i was just showing that i have been keeping track as others are....thanks

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Posts: 167
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Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: GERRYL]
      #38980 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:14 PM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #38981 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:14 PM

Go to the main page and scroll down to CMC/GFS/FSUMM5/NOGAPS/UKMET

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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Katie]
      #38982 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:15 PM

THANK YOU

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: jth]
      #38983 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:17 PM

Here's a pretty good website with a listing of coastal water temps.

Coastal Water Temps

And here's a nice graphic of SST anomalies. Doesn't appear to be higher than normal to me.

SST Map

--------------------
Check the Surf


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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #38984 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:17 PM

I didn't think of it that way...
It certainly makes sense. Thank you!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38985 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:19 PM

This is not a wishcast.I am going out on a limb here,But I am predicting a South Florida derect hit.I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing.The high IS moving east and Dennis went from a wnw track to a nw track.This eastern track will continue,and you will continue to see the models shift everything right.My biggest fear is all the news stories about the Gulf will catch many in South Florida by surprise.So you can laugh,curse or slap me silly,but I do predict a South Florida hit.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38986 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:21 PM

FtLaudBob- hope you are wrong, but, I still have that not so good feeling.

Lysis, what are you thinking dear?


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38987 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:24 PM

Quote:

This is not a wishcast.I am going out on a limb here,But I am predicting a South Florida derect hit.I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing.The high IS moving east and Dennis went from a wnw track to a nw track.This eastern track will continue,and you will continue to see the models shift everything right.My biggest fear is all the news stories about the Gulf will catch many in South Florida by surprise.So you can laugh,curse or slap me silly,but I do predict a South Florida hit.





But have been saying that for the past two days... LOL

ok seriously, i don't think we will have a direct hit, but i think it is gonna come to close for comfort and the bad weather will catch a lot of people by surprise.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38988 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:26 PM

Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef

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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38989 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:28 PM

Thanks guy!!!!! But it would not suprise me if we do get as a minimum hurricane force in our area...............

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38990 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:28 PM

Quote:

Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef


I really see a trend starting.And it still has plenty of time and room.I hope I am wrong,but that is what I predict.We shall see.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38991 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:31 PM

My prediciton: Direct hit between pensa. and cedar key but will parallel the west coast to give west coast 75-100 mph winds in spots with serious surge...A direct hit would have devastating consequences....

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38992 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:32 PM

You have plenty of people that hope your wrong in South Florida at this very moment.....Weatherchef

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Gulf Temps [Re: Jax Chris]
      #38993 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:33 PM

BayNews9 ALSO has the Gulf temps at 89-90 degrees. I would assume that if I checked the other news stations, they would be in line with those numbers. When I was in Clearwater in June, it was 86.
Maybe they are taking them closer to the coast; I don't know. I seriously do not think they are making it up for visitors, but I don't feel like squabbling over it, either.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: st.pete boy]
      #38994 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:33 PM

My prediction:

I'll wait and see what NHC says!

There is still a lot of uncertainty and I would like to see some more models runs and see what the consensus is. They could just as easily swing back west.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38995 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:35 PM

Then again, you have people like me in Pensacola, hoping that he is right.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: trinibaje]
      #38996 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:36 PM

I would be amazed if you are correct, and if you are, well then we are going to be having some issues. However, I think like many others this may skirt the west coast of Florida. Frankly the CMC 12Z Model is not that far off, it even correctly initializes the little sliver of ridge that is still left. It may be a little too far east, but hey I am not a weather man.

As far as wishcasting, I do not know anyone who has gone through Hurricanes who want to wish one in their area. True the event is an adreneline rush, but the clean up is a drag and it goes on and on and on.. Still trying to get my life back together from last years mess.. It sucks.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: Pensacola101]
      #38997 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:36 PM

I roger that.....Weatherchef

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38998 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:37 PM

Quote:

BayNews9 ALSO has the Gulf temps at 89-90 degrees. I would assume that if I checked the other news stations, they would be in line with those numbers. When I was in Clearwater in June, it was 86.
Maybe they are taking them closer to the coast; I don't know. I seriously do not think they are making it up for visitors, but I don't feel like squabbling over it, either.




I think what they are reporting are the "surf" temps which are usually warmer than water off the coast. NWS has water temps at Clearwater Beach at 89.6deg., but I don't think that's indicative of what the GOM is as a whole.

Remember too, that more than the surface temp, how deep the warm water is plays a bigger role.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Thu Jul 07 2005 01:40 PM)


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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Gulf Temps [Re: AgentB]
      #38999 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:41 PM

Hey guys, what's another storm? We can take it... of course I am being totally sarcastic, and I really hope that this trend doesn't continue. Even if it just skirts the west coast, Central Florida will on the bad side of the storm, unless it made landfall on the east coast. That's not looking so likely, and the CMC model protrays a big problem for the peninsula of Florida.

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
2 pm advisory? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39000 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 PM

is it out yet?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
ULL? [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39003 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:45 PM

Is anyone watching the water vapor loops? I am trying to get a handle on the strength of the high, and I noticed a spin developing at about 26N 66W. What's going on out there? A ULL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

--------------------
South Florida


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39004 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:47 PM

Bob for that to happen Dennis cannot deviate anymore just a straight line and add another 15' to N track.In the last six hrs Dennis has been moving 41'N of W for your Idea to come to fruitation you need the other 15'N.I have not seen Dennis move in a straight line yet.I think the Terrain is having an effect on Dennis right now.If you give it another 12-16hrs I think a more WNW will come about again.The models shifting E good for me thats for sure.Once Dennis crosses Cuba then I will take models more seriously.
I have seen a few of storms thus far from Camille to Georges.Give it another 24hrs.Your thoghts could happen seen stranger things happen before but find it unlikily at the time being.
The NHC for the most part has been on track.If you watched Cindy the other night at 2:00AM she was heading for Lake Pontchatrain(dueN) then went due E for about 2-3hrs then NW the rest of the way.Guess what still landed within the 60NM of the NHC forcast.They consider that a good forcast.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39005 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:48 PM

This is just the first round and this is a 15 round fight. We might be looking like Jake Lamatta did in the "Raging Bull" when its all over , but I can asure you we`ll still be standing........Weatherchef

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ROB H
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL. 28.00N 82.70W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: stormchazer]
      #39006 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:49 PM

I think Clarks latest track analysis is dead on, and most of the models are backing him up. This storm does not have to make a direct hit on the peninsula to cause severe damage. A run up parallel to the west coast just offshore is not a pretty scenario

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
there is not a good scenario [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39007 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:49 PM

for anyone who gets hit by Dennis....

to skirt up the west side of Florida would definitely be a bozo nono for the insurance companies...

seems to be closely following the current path, however....I think it's a little premature to think Tampa is gonna get hit..but certainly it's a possiblity.....looking like Appalachicola or so to me, at least right now....

Wonder why Joe Bastardi is thinking Mississippi...and also wonder what his thoughts tomorrow will be...


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: RECON [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39008 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:51 PM

FYI - RECON is currently reporting that the pressure is down to 962 mb.

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KN4LF
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #39009 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

#51 Published Thursday July 07, 2005 at 10:45 am EDT

At 11:00 am EDT Hurricane Dennis has a sustained wind of 105 mph, a CAT 2 cyclone. It's at position 18.0 N 75.6 W with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.59". Most importantly and ominously for the South Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, the current heading is now NW or 315 degrees. This NW jog is in response to my forecast of a weaker Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida. It was easily seen too as the maximum barometric pressure here in Plant City on west central peninsula fell from a maximum of 30.14" on Tuesday to a maximum of 30.03" on Wednesday. With more forecast models jumping on the band wagon of an eastward track shift the NHC TPC has adjusted the official track to the east, with a landfall back to near Pensacola Sunday evening 07/10/05.

As I said above the new NW heading is ominous for the South Florida and the Florida Keys and the NHC TPC has now issued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and a tropical storm watch for the southern peninsula. On the current forecast track Key West would experience hurricane conditions on Saturday with gale force conditions, storm surge, heavy rainfall and tornadoes moving up the west coast to the Tampa Bay area.

Looking at the strength of Dennis, as already mentioned above he is a CAT 2 now and after skirting Jamaica to the north he should reach CAT 3 status before crossing western Cuba, though circulation interaction with Cuba could hold Dennis to a strong CAT 2 cyclone. After he emerges into the SE Gulf Of Mexico west of Key West he should reach CAT 3-4 strength enroute the NW Panhandle. However some weakening is possible as he approaches the coast.

Looking at the synoptic situation more closely, the Bermuda high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and Florida peninsula weakened and retreated eastward due to the passing of T.S. Cindy. The slower the mid level vestiges of Cindy move northeastward the slower the high pressure ridge rebuilds and shifts westward. We also have several mid level shortwave troughs over the SW and southern U.S. heading eastward, that "COULD" weaken and shift the high pressure ridge eastward allowing Dennis to track over or along the west coast of Florida or it could re-strengthen and shift back to the west pushing Dennis back westward for a landfall in AL or MS. It's all a matter of timing.

An experienced Meteorologist does not change his hurricane landfall prediction on every whim of the forecast models, My mantra once again is live by the model die by the model. So right now I see no reason to change my landfall forecast from yesterday, a window between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on early Monday morning as a CAT 3-4.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: ULL? [Re: Brett]
      #39010 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

Looks like one tring to develop got some divergent winds in the area.Not exactly sure what impact that would have if it should develop being behind Dennis.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: javlin]
      #39011 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out.Right now they are thinking western Cuba.So we will not have to wait long to see if I am on the right track.Cuba plays a major role in my thinking.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39012 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:54 PM

Quote:

Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef




It isn't out of the cone, therefore it remains a possibility, though it may be unlikely at this time.


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #39013 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:54 PM

Wasn't Joe Bastardi the one who maintained that Frances and Jeanne were going to curve up to hit the Carolinas?

I don't like this at all. Tallahassee hasn't seen a storm like this in...what, 20 years?


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: RECON [Re: Kal]
      #39015 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:56 PM

From the 2pm advisory: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Dennis IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Major flooding.... even if it just skirts. [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39016 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:58 PM

Whether your educated or not-so-educated guess goes east or more west, it looks like we may have the potential for severe flooding with or without a direct hit.

Don't know if anyone has been paying attention, but record rains have had many areas above flood stage for months now. Extremely unusually high tables for June & early July. In Arcadia, they have had what they generally call "100 year flood" conditions. I know it is similar in other areas.

Even without storm surge, inland flooding from feeder bands could be severe. Sandbags might be appropriate in some areas.

See:
USGS Water Level Data - Florida

-Bev


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39017 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:59 PM

Just 5 mph short of a cat 3. Seems to be moving more NW than WNW - that would make it more of a FL panhandle event.

Hope we are all wrong!!


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: MoparMitch]
      #39018 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:01 PM

Quote:

Just 5 mph short of a cat 3. Seems to be moving more NW than WNW - that would make it more of a FL panhandle event.

Hope we are all wrong!!




not seems to be.. he is moving NW

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Get Ready FL *just in case* [Re: Kal]
      #39019 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:01 PM

I think Ed Dunham comments on getting ready just in case are warranted. I had a supsicion last night about all this "model consensus" and now I look at the computer this late morning and see how much has changed. I am sure it will change again too! I feel like we (south FL, except Keys) will just make it out of harms way by a narrow margin. Too close for comfort in my book.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Major flooding.... even if it just skirts. [Re: Bev]
      #39020 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:05 PM

Bev, I agree. Regardless, we will be getting rain, we don't need. This has been a rainy season more so than I can recall in the past and adding tropical rains on top of it- aren't going to help matters.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: MoparMitch]
      #39021 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:05 PM

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN* SOUTHEASTERN* CUBA TONIGHT.

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Still a GOM Event [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39022 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:09 PM

No doubt we are going to get wind and rain from this- but I do not see a direct Southeast coast impact from Dennis. However- it's the west coast that better start taking inventory of their resources...NOW.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis and Cuba [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #39023 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 PM

If Dennis goes over central or eastern Cuba,and slows down,everyone in South Florida will be holding there breath.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Get Ready FL *just in case* [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #39024 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 PM

I agree with you Justin, that S.FL. will just barely make it except the Keys. However, this is closer than expected just a day or two ago. Like Thomas said, my maximum pressure for the week was actually reached on Monday and it has slipped all week long since. The high started retreating 2 days ago.
Mon. max. 30.18, Tues. max. 30.17, Wed. max. 30.09, Thur. max. 30.05.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Still a GOM Event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #39025 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM

Agreem Joe, the west coast (Keys and SW Florida first) need to get ready for this. The NHC will be scrambling to get warnings and stuff out.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ]
      #39026 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM

Thomas - how close to the coast do you see him running? 100 miles? 50 miles?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Watches/Warnings [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #39027 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:18 PM

I remember how we would always sit here and wait during previous storms to see when/where the NHC would issue watches/warnings. I don't think they issue them unless they pretty darned confident they are warranted. Here's some of the reasons why: it brings up the level of the local EOC's, who then go into planning for evacuations, who then go in to the process of ACTUALLY evacuating. We then see (perhaps before the local EOC's) the state EOC go into action, usually followed by the Governer requesting help from the federal government. All of this takes a lot of time and money, and I seriously don't believe they (NHC) would put up watches/warnings just on a whim that the models *might* shift more to the right. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see more watches/warnings extended up and down the ENTIRE peninsula (hurricane on the west, tropical on the east) in the next day or so.
The information they are getting is now more conclusive because it's coming from Recon, so that is probably why we are seeing more of a consensus in the model outputs.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #39028 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:20 PM

And this is what makes me so angry. The local tv news stations... the newspapers... they all told the public that there is no chance that this hurricane is affecting south or central florida. Well, supprise... it very well may. I hope people learned their lesson last year with Charley, and really prepare for this one. We can't be dogmatic about these things.

--------------------
cheers


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39029 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:20 PM

Even if Dennis tracks according to the NHC forecast and slams into the Pensacola area, the projected growth of the storm itself looks to bring some seriously nasty conditions to much of the southwest/west coast of Florida. Check out this graphic produced by the Navy.

Navy Forecast Graphic

Everyone needs to stay on their toes...


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39031 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:30 PM

Quote:

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.




I'm sorry, but since you're posting frequently I thought I'd have to point this out.

"If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out"

You're more confident in your prediction because the storm is passing by a landmark (they're using a SE Cuba landmark, because this evening on its NW journey, it's passing (to the south) of SE Cuba)? It's still destined to make its crossing of Cuba well to the west of anything remotely considered "more to the east on Cuba".

So how did what you quoted support your off-on-a-limb prediction of a South Florida hit again?

Just curious, because it seems to me that rather than point to anything substantial (like weather patterns and/or historical data), you're just pulling a fearcast out of your nether regions. Since you haven't explained your theory ("I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing."), you just seem to be enjoying the "sound" of your own voice, and grasping at straws.

There are professionals here and this is a great resource. Rather than repeating yourself every 15 minutes about how much more right you are about your South Florida hit, please consider normal conversation and let the storm prove you right or wrong.

If I'm off base, I apologize, but reading a new post from you every 15 minutes about how it's definitely looking more like a South Florida hit is getting old.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #39032 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:32 PM

Lysis...I've been watching and reading the newspaper the last couple of days and I haven't seen ANY of the mets say it wouldn't affect us at all...we were still in the "cone" and most of them that I saw kept repeating that "we have to keep a very close eye on this because the margin of error is large this far out". Now, I grant you that I haven't been able to watch ALL of them at the same time, so I might have missed one or two, but I think in general they have been very responsible in their reporting.
People need to pay attention to the "cone" not the black line..unfortunately, even though the people down in Punta Gorda were under a hurricane warning, a lot of people chose NOT to leave.
Let's hope that EVERYONE learned something from last year's season and prepare to leave if they are asked to this time.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Models [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #39033 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 PM

Where is the model showing Tampa? I read earlier about a possible Tampa hit. I need to find the cooridinates for Tampa. How do I find these?

Thanks


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Kal]
      #39034 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 PM

WIth a powerful Cat 3 off skirting the West coast of Florida the wind and rain and tides will take their toll. Even inland, possible tornado's and torrential rains.
Just depends on how close Dennis comes. Don't you wish we could tell how fast the High Pressure will move East......

Still hot/sunny and humid in most of Florida right now.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39035 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:35 PM

here in riverview it is 95 degrees heat indexof 104, the hudity is at 46%....so yea its still hot...but reminds me of last year ....the waiting game has begun...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39036 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.




I'm sorry, but since you're posting frequently I thought I'd have to point this out.

"If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out"

You're more confident in your prediction because the storm is passing by a landmark (they're using a SE Cuba landmark, because this evening on its NW journey, it's passing (to the south) of SE Cuba)? It's still destined to make its crossing of Cuba well to the west of anything remotely considered "more to the east on Cuba".

So how did what you quoted support your off-on-a-limb prediction of a South Florida hit again?

Just curious, because it seems to me that rather than point to anything substantial (like weather patterns and/or historical data), you're just pulling a fearcast out of your nether regions. Since you haven't explained your theory ("I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing."), you just seem to be enjoying the "sound" of your own voice, and grasping at straws.

There are professionals here and this is a great resource. Rather than repeating yourself every 15 minutes about how much more right you are about your South Florida hit, please consider normal conversation and let the storm prove you right or wrong.

If I'm off base, I apologize, but reading a new post from you every 15 minutes about how it's definitely looking more like a South Florida hit is getting old.






well i pm Bob and asked him to explain to me and he did... just because you don't agree with him doesn't mean you have to berate him, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, no matter how odd it seems. I think even the most unseasoned weather hobbiest has enough intelligence to know that you take certain things with a grain of salt.

My two cents.....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39037 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

Accuweather has moved its path back towards Ft Walton Beach. This is their third change of the day. Most models still pointing to the area between Mobile and Appalachicola. The current position actually has not deviated much from the NHC forecast positions. Lets face it, everyone pay attention. I remember watching Ivan turn right and make landfall 80 miles east of where it was suppose to, all in the last few hours. Sometimes I think the best model is the satelite picture.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39038 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

I'm still thinking Western Panhandle, pretty much along the NHC's track. South florida mayg et some of the storm's outer regions, that's why it's under a tropical storm watch. However, there isn't much room for it to make a direct hit there.

Concentrate in the Eastern Gulf. I'm not doubting the NHC at all on this, and don't see any reason to do so. If you are under a watch or warning area you need to prepare regardless. In fact I would get gas, etc now even if it does not come your way because of the rush that would occur if anything trended in your direction.


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Guest
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39039 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 PM

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

And by the way, we just a downpour here in Largo, just west of Tampa. So much for that Bermuda High..


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39040 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 PM

Palmetto -- the last "major" storm to affect Tallahassee was Kate in 1985, and that only brought 45mph winds to the airport...yet many lost power for a week.

A category 3 hurricane would be unprecedented, as nothing beyond a week hurricane has directly affected this area since before 1900. Storm surge maps for the area are rather sobering as well -- Apalachee Bay is the most susceptible area to storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico & perhaps the entire basin.

Re: water temperatures -- according to buoy observations, water temperatures are about 87 degrees offshore of Tampa Bay. The shallower waters in Tampa Bay itself and directly along the west coast might well be warmer -- closer to the 90 degrees reported -- but are not that high over the open waters.

FYI: recon pressure within the past 10 minutes down a full 6mb to 956mb. Cuba and Jamaica are going to take one strong beating from this storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39041 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 PM



... I know this is wrong, but it made me jump:
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=985&stc=1

My local paper today really downplayed the significance of the storm, and a tv personality said some equally ignorant remarks. My apologies to the majority of the weather community and their efforts in accurate forecasting.

--------------------
cheers


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Kal]
      #39042 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:40 PM

I will make this very brief as I still not 100% sure where this will end up. Clark and ED gave a near perfect explanation and I cant agree more.
To make a prediction right now I say Dennis will move with the GFDL,GFS, and Canadian Models thru central Cuba to just west of the Keys. The move NNW anywhere from along the west coast of Florida to 100 miles offshore. The ridge now has moved over the Bahamas and is squeezed in a NNW-SSE direction moving Dennis NNW on Saturday. Landfall could be in Western Florida but most likely just south of Tallahassee. The Ukmet isnt out of the question also if it wants to keep Dennis along the south shore of Cuba due to land interaction. If so a Panama City-Mobile landfall will take place.
Right now I want to see the 00Z model runs and see if and where he does want to enter Cuba. The next 12-24 hours is the future path of him.


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Models [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39043 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:41 PM

Tampa is roughly at 28 and 82

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Models [Re: Guest]
      #39044 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:42 PM

Quote:

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

And by the way, we just a downpour here in Largo, just west of Tampa. So much for that Bermuda High..




Thank you for those!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Please Stop This! [Re: tpratch]
      #39045 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:44 PM

Here's the reason the ftlaudbob gave for his thinking:

Quote:

That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow Dennis to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.




You may have missed this, so I decided to post it for you so you could see he is not fearcasting or anything else. He's been saying this for the last two days.

Instead of all of this quarreling over who said what when and why people think they are wrong or right, could we please, for the sake of ALL of us following a serious situation here that's going to affect SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, try to focus on what the storm is ACTUALLY doing?
I understand tempers are short and nerves are frayed all over the GOM, but let's remember that we are all here for a common cause: to help each other learn and understand; not to demean and embarrass.
Thank you!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: trinibaje]
      #39046 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:47 PM

What index was that again folks, the "Pucker Index"?

Whatever it was called, it *sounds* like it was a good prediction of some of the members in this forum. Guys, chill out, let the mets guide us, both those here in the forum and the ones at the NHC. Just hit the next button if you don't like a particular post, and remember in your personal settings (top of each page can get you there), you can set an ignore list.

Now, back to the F.U.D. (fear, uncertainity and destruction)...gosh, that sounds like Microsoft, not the NHC or mets

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39047 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:49 PM

My intent was not to demean and embarrass, as much as it was to point out that the frequency of updates to his own theory might have been better served as an edited post rather than the one or two sentence replies they have been.

Yes, he's been saying it for two days and he is consistent. My apology in advance was quite sincere as I might have simply misunderstood where he was coming from.

I did catch the comment about the weakening high, but it seemed more of an afterthought than anything entered into with forethought (not to mention more recent than his original theory).

My apology still stands if I offended. My request for updates less frequently is still on the table as well.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39049 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:50 PM

I agree 100 %......Weatherchef

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Please Stop This! [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39050 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:52 PM

Can anyone access the 12Z GFDL??????????? Its not opening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: Ricreig]
      #39051 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:52 PM

Quote:

What index was that again folks, the "Pucker Index"?




A more-appropriate inappropriate phrase you'll never find

Quote:

Just hit the next button if you don't like a particular post, and remember in your personal settings (top of each page can get you there), you can set an ignore list.

Now, back to the F.U.D. (fear, uncertainity and destruction)...gosh, that sounds like Microsoft, not the NHC or mets

Richard




I had forgotten there was an ignore feature. I'll consider its use in the future if I sense a trend.

Thanks,
--Tom


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39052 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:55 PM

Yeah.... I'm getting nervous here in Lake/Orange County. The storms were great for my paycheck last year, but I can't handle the stress again. Well, guess I won't have much of a choice, will I?
Hopefully, the things holds the current forecasted track. Not that I am wishing this thing on anyone.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39053 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 PM

Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39054 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:58 PM

Quote:

Wasn't Joe Bastardi the one who maintained that Frances and Jeanne were going to curve up to hit the Carolinas?

I don't like this at all. Tallahassee hasn't seen a storm like this in...what, 20 years?




That definitely has me worried as well. Too many 100 ft plus pine trees surrounding my house to ride this one out.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #39055 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:59 PM

Quote:

Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.




seems like he is on a suicide mission with the mountains of Cuba

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39056 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:01 PM

I hate to say this...but I am starting to see a bit of a more northerly component...just watching the visible 1/2 hr loops....

perhaps the resumption of a more wnw track after the interraction with Jamaica finishes will occur...or perhaps it won't...

The thing that makes the most sense to me is the post by Thomas Giella...that its a timing issue...with the rebuilding of a bermuda high..the hurricane could kick left...and if the high doesn't rebuild..and on and on...

...much more is going on in the atmosphere that a computer doesn't have, even much less understand...so the fact is...is that even now....Dennis could swing left or right of the "projected" path 250 miles...and that's an average mistake the models make this far out... Heck...what kind of assurance is that?....some........

my point is this....NO ONE is out of the woods with this hurricane. Let's just watch and see....

excellent posts...but I concur...we should leave this forum open...for any comments....it makes it more real....


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Coorindates for selected cities. [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39057 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.



Thank you for those!




PM me if you'd like a set for your city.

Key West: 24.57 N, 81.68 W

Miami: 25.8 N 80.23W

Ft. Lauderdale 26 11 N 80.18W

WPB 26.75 N 80.05W

Naples 26.15 N 81.80W

Punta Gorda 26.94 N 82.05 W

Sarasota 27.30 N 82.52 W

Lakeland 28 09 N 81 95 W

Tampa 27.95 N 82.49 W

Westernmost Pinellas County 27.88 N 82.87 W

Cedar Key 29.15 N 83.03 W

Central Coast of Appalachee Bay 30.1 N 84.00 W

Tallahassee 30.47 N 84.28 W

Panama City 30.17 N 35.67 W

Pensacola 30.45 N 87.21 W

Mobile 30.68 N 88.05 W

Biloxi 30.4 N 88.88 W


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: Clark]
      #39058 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM

Although modest, the pressures along the East Coast of FL (Ormond Beach) have been dropping slightly this afternoon. Link below will provide information from our site. The rain guage is not functioning properly and the entire system is scheduled to be upgraded on Tuesday...

Michael


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #39059 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM

I don't understand how to use the FSU Experiment Model page. What "views" and other settings are selected to provide images that relate to those "spaghetti-style" graphics shown on WeatherUnderground, etc.? Or are these tools above my understanding as a novice user?

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: FlaRebel]
      #39060 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:04 PM

I just called Colleen but I will share with you guys,
City of Winter Haven has their debris pickup guys out there again today. Tuesday was pickup and they are back out again. Maybe just in case? Either way, they aren't leaving anything behind.


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abc123
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #39061 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:05 PM

I have notice that they did mention Dennis will not effect Florida. Why did they say this????????....This is my first post and just wanted to say It's been great reading everyone's posts and I,m learning a lot from everybody. Keep up the good work.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #39062 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:06 PM

Quote:

Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.


Are you jumping on my bandwagon????lol just kidding.I got many pm's today pointing out that yesterday some were razing me about the more eastern turn,and that today that seems to be happening..So I am cool.Thanks to all the pm's.Let's keep are heads straight and just be prepared.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #39063 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:07 PM

Just when you think that there is a clear tread the models try to keep it interesting.
The new 12Z MM% from FSU has the storm farther to the west as it is passing Tampa see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/DENNIS.track.png
Than the 00Z run http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005070700/DENNIS.track.png

In the 00Z run the path does not go west of 85 degrees the new one it does.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #39064 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:07 PM

Yeah,
it's dropping in Cocoa Beach as well.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/livewx.html


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: abc123]
      #39065 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:08 PM

Looking at this link with the project plots, it looks like Dennis will go slightly north of the next projected plot. That is NOT good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Edited by FlaRebel (Thu Jul 07 2005 03:15 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #39066 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:12 PM

I believe there are some t-storms of the EC of Florida...could this be the reason for the drop in pressures?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: FlaRebel]
      #39067 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:13 PM

FlaRebel, I know. I keep looking outside my office window and seeing all of these trees. I don't think I'm gutsy enough to try and ride out a major hurricane here.

I grew up near St. Marks and remember what it was like for us with Kate. If it was as weakened as Clark says it was by that point, I don't think I want to know what a real punch feels like.


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sullynole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #39068 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:17 PM

Quote:

Just when you think that there is a clear tread the models try to keep it interesting.
The new 12Z MM% from FSU has the storm farther to the west as it is passing Tampa see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/DENNIS.track.png
Than the 00Z run http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005070700/DENNIS.track.png

In the 00Z run the path does not go west of 85 degrees the new one it does.




i'm not sure if you are noticing that the lat/long lines are not plotted the same and the images are of different scale.

--------------------
John


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39069 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:18 PM

Quote:

Are you jumping on my bandwagon????lol just kidding.I got many pm's today pointing out that yesterday some were razing me about the more eastern turn,and that today that seems to be happening..So I am cool.Thanks to all the pm's.Let's keep are heads straight and just be prepared.




Definitely... let's keep 'our' heads straight and not get too overly impressed with 'ourselves' when things seem to be looking like 'our' predictions... Concentrate on the storm, not your ego!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #39070 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:18 PM

Re: MM5-- yes and both thos are dependent upon a significan move to the WNW immediately after it clears the coast of Cuba. If all remains consistent the floww off the coast in the area where he may exit is almost due NNW...food for thought

--------------------
doug


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old man
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: sullynole]
      #39071 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:20 PM

Look again it's 84 degrees not 85.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Plots... [Re: FlaRebel]
      #39072 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:23 PM

I just watched the visible floater, this is what I see:

It appears to *my eyes* that it may just clip the part of Cuba where the 2nd "2" is, then move more NNW towards the skinner (middle part of Cuba). Unfortunately, that gives it less mountainous areas to go through and more open water before it actually crosses over Cuba. From there, it *could* move straight through the middle of the Keys.
Just my own observation..might be wrong, might be right. We'll find out soon enough, I guess.
On another note: has anyone seen a close-up of this storm??? It's HUGE! Very scary...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Land O Lakes [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39073 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:26 PM

Upon request (PM not working properly )

Land O Lakes 28.24 N 82.46 W


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nccathy
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Re: Plots... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39074 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:28 PM

where did you see the close-up?

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Coorindates for selected cities. [Re: Doombot!]
      #39075 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.



Thank you for those!




PM me if you'd like a set for your city.

Key West: 24.57 N, 81.68 W

Miami: 25.8 N 80.23W

Ft. Lauderdale 26 11 N 80.18W

WPB 26.75 N 80.05W

Naples 26.15 N 81.80W

Punta Gorda 26.94 N 82.05 W

Sarasota 27.30 N 82.52 W

Lakeland 28 09 N 81 95 W

Tampa 27.95 N 82.49 W

Westernmost Pinellas County 27.88 N 82.87 W

Cedar Key 29.15 N 83.03 W

Central Coast of Appalachee Bay 30.1 N 84.00 W

Tallahassee 30.47 N 84.28 W

Panama City 30.17 N 35.67 W

Pensacola 30.45 N 87.21 W

Mobile 30.68 N 88.05 W

Biloxi 30.4 N 88.88 W




Thanks for the info!!!!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: sullynole]
      #39076 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:34 PM

Thanks for that clarification, Sully.

12z MM5 is almost on top of the 12Z GFDL and GFS runs and similar to the 00Z MM5.

The FSU Experimental Model Output page only allows you to see one model at a time; there is no option for spaghetti-style maps. Thus, you aren't missing anything by only seeing them one at a time -- just watch the animations for each and you'll be good to go.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Atlanta [Re: Terra]
      #39077 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:34 PM

Ok, I'm now counting myself as officially worried. I'm not too worried, but I sure hope I won't be coming back to a ruined apt sunday

I'm sticking with the 'powerful hurricanes tend to go straight' theory, and that you'll see more of a shift once Dennis hits cuba, and heads closer to North and NNW....

I'll peek in from atlanta, bu it's time for me to start driving and avoid rush hour, take care and prepare if you're anywhere near the line of fire....

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Coorindates for selected cities. [Re: stormchazer]
      #39078 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:34 PM

Wow, I almost had a heart attack!! I couldn't get on to CFHC website. Seriously, having a panic attack. But, you're back. whew.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Plots... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39079 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:35 PM

My apologies if this has been posted already, just got back from Home Depot buying a bigger gas can LOL. Dvorak is @ 5.5

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Land O Lakes [Re: Doombot!]
      #39080 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:37 PM

Quote:

Upon request (PM not working properly )

Land O Lakes 28.24 N 82.46 W



Everybody who wants coordinates for a specific city/town/etc., here's another link (I got a million of them; I'm connected to the web ). Go to HomeTownLocator at http://www.hometownlocator.com/, put the city and state in the top two boxes, and hit the CitySearch button. You might get a couple of possibilities to chose from (for instance, Jacksonville Florida will give you 4), so if you do chose one. The latitude and longitue will be the last line in a green-dashed box just a little way down the page. If the longitude is negative (and it will be for all US locations...) then it indicates degrees west, so -81.39 is 81.39 W.

Hope this lets everybody get what they need without swamping a few people looking these up for everybody...

Jax Chris


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39081 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:39 PM

MIAMI -- The Florida Keys ordered an evacuation of tourists and other nonresidents Thursday as a strengthening Hurricane Dennis stormed through the Caribbean on a course that forecasters said might bring it to the state by the weekend.
Monroe County officials ordered that visitors begin leaving the low-lying Keys at noon and ordered the evacuation of mobile home residents beginning at 6 p.m. The Keys were under a hurricane watch, which means winds of at least 74 mph and storm surges are possible by late Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, including Miami and Naples.

Forecasters said that although they still couldn't tell where Dennis and its 110-mph winds would hit the U.S., residents on the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana to Florida should be watching the storm.

"The central and east Gulf coasts are the most threatened," said Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the center. "This is the time to take a little bit of action to get some of the rudimentary hurricane supplies."

The skies in the Keys were still sunny and clear Thursday, but people were already preparing for Dennis. Four hurricanes struck Florida last year. Although none hit the Keys, the island chain was evacuated three times, causing the loss of at least $50 million in visitor-related sales.

www.wftv.com is the source of this article


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Fox news [Re: Jax Chris]
      #39082 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:41 PM

fox news met was just on TV, seems like she was cautioning the western peninsula more than the panhandle. Useful Image here

They are also saying they will be talking to an expert in the field shortly. Not sure who it is


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Fox news [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39083 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:42 PM

Jamie, I just saw that too.

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Katie]
      #39084 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:45 PM

has anyone heard anything on the tampa bay areas news about warnings watches and stuff?...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Plots... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39085 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:47 PM

My eyes must see the same I am seeing it NE of the forecast points since 1445 UTC. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fox news [Re: Katie]
      #39086 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:47 PM

Why we can't believe the models? Here is why.
[image]http://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/f11_20_2.htm[/image]


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39087 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:49 PM

This would be the best page to check for warnings for Hillsborough County

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/FLZ051.php?zo=1&city=Hillsborough+County


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Fox news [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39088 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:50 PM

tyvm....i appreciate it

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Bastardi [Re: pcola]
      #39089 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:51 PM

Anyone with AccuweatherPro that can tell me if he has changed his thoughts. FWIW, I believe he has wobbled back west again. He may be doing the two step around the mountains. Don't kno whay that seems to occur so frequently.....Maybe the mountains somehow interrupt the steering currents...I don't know, but he could easily move wes or WNW south of Cuba for a while.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Shuttle?? [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39090 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:53 PM

Any news on the space shuttle being moved? I know that would be a good indicator if the east coast of Florida were to get any descent wind effects. Does any one know the minimum wind speed needed in that area to move the shuttle?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #39091 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:55 PM

I went and pulled up the 0Z and 12Z runs of the FSU MM5 (what's done of the 12Z run, at least), and compared the two, and the track did indeed shift just slightly west while it was offshore.

Since they only provide exact coordinates and other data in their archives (I can't find it for the current in-progress run), I pulled both maps into photoshop and approximated the positions based on the blue plot lines and the long/lat per pixel ratios for each plot (since they are at different scales right now).

Admitted it was a rough comparison, but from the 0Z to 12Z runs, two rough points offshore of Florida went as follows:

Off Ft. Myers: 26N 83.55W --> 26N 83.71W
Off Tampa: 28N 84.42W --> 28N 84.79W

Once they finish the current run and get the numbers into the archives, I can tell for sure. Oh, and speaking of the numbers in the archives, does anyone know what the last number on each data line represents? I see the format is latitude/longitude/pressure/???, and I can't tell what the last one is. I was thinking wind speed, but the numbers seem too low for that. They do, though, show charts for "Maximum lowest model level wind in knots", which is vaguely confusing; is that supposed to represent a max wind level, or a minimum wind level? I imagine it means "Maximum low level wind", and is just phrased clumsily.

--------------------
Londovir


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39093 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:57 PM

WEST COAST OF FL COULD SEE WINDS OF 55+ MPH IN GUSTS ALREADY FORECASTED TO HIT ST. PETERSBURG AND ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST!!! Close to the intensity of H. Jeanne when it crossed into Hillsborough last year...but less intense by about 18 mph (Jeanne had gusts to 78 mph in Pinellas County, this forecast is for 60):

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...9&map.y=156


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Plots... [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #39094 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:58 PM

Perhaps Dennis is just a bit North of the red plot points but not by much....

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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Londovir]
      #39095 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:59 PM

... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
storm surge in the Lower Keys is expected to range from 3 to 5 feet.
Upper and Middle Keys can expect 1 to 2 feet of storm surge.

... Wind impacts...
tropical storm force winds are expected to approach the Florida Keys
late Friday afternoon. Conditions will continue to deteriorate
Friday afternoon and Friday night.

... Marine impacts...
winds and seas will gradually increase this evening... as Hurricane
Dennis approaches. Therefore... small craft should remain in port
until the affects of Hurricane Dennis have passed. Tropical storm
force winds are expected to reach the Florida Straits early Friday
afternoon... and hurricane force winds are possible late Friday
night. Furthermore... shower activity will increase tonight with
increasing squalls expected Friday afternoon.

... Rainfall impacts...
the Florida Keys can expect to receive 4 to 6 inches of rainfall in
association with Hurricane Dennis.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Re: Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #39096 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:00 PM

Quote:

Although modest, the pressures along the East Coast of FL (Ormond Beach) have been dropping slightly this afternoon. Link below will provide information from our site. The rain guage is not functioning properly and the entire system is scheduled to be upgraded on Tuesday...

Michael




Thanks for the link Mike. That station is just a few blocks from my house.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Ricreig
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Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39097 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:03 PM

Quote:

has anyone heard anything on the tampa bay areas news about warnings watches and stuff?...


...only the following from the Tampa NWS:

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 86. Windy, with a east wind 17 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a southeast wind between 29 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 51 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 89. Windy, with a south wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

___

This is consistant with a hurricane well to the west, 100-150 miles. You can expect tropical storm winds and associated rain if the forecast track holds.

There is a useful URL at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145724.shtml?tswindloop?

Which should relieve you a bit. Being in a TS, bad enough, is NOT the same as being in the eyewall of a Cat III hurricane. Flooding of low-lying areas due to the rain, some tree and limb damage and possible power outages are the most likely result of this kind of a brush with Dennis. Again, this is based upon a forecast track which actually hasn't changed too much in the last two days. It looks about 25 miles closer than yesterday but still well offshore of Tampa Bay area.

Your best bet is to relax, take a deep breath, ensure your car is gassed up, just in case the NHC is drastically wrong, and keep posted. North of us, up in the panhandle, the outlook is not so 'rosy' by comparison, unfortunately but the advice is the same but includes evacuation plans and boarding up windows and for sure, food and water supplies, full gas tank and medications for a week or two if needed.

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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FlaMommy
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Re: Fox news [Re: Ricreig]
      #39098 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:06 PM

thank you so much but we are ready to evacuate if necessary....we are in an evacuation zone automatically...so no worries on boarding up....just waiting for the go ahead...and we are there....thank you all so much for helping me understand all these things that are possible and so forth...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Missers
Registered User


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Re: Shuttle?? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #39100 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:09 PM

Quote:

Any news on the space shuttle being moved? I know that would be a good indicator if the east coast of Florida were to get any descent wind effects. Does any one know the minimum wind speed needed in that area to move the shuttle?



NASA has not announced plans to move Discovery yet. I am sure they will be deciding soon, since it's a long process. yesterday I read what the minimum was, but now I can't find it.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Models [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39101 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:10 PM

Models look like they shifted even more to the east, which explains why fox news was concerned about the west coast. NHC is now on the westernmost side of the guidance, with the UKMET the only outlier. I would expect to see an adjustment to the east in the NHC forecast track at 5pm.

]http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
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probably resuming a more wnw course soon... [Re: AgentB]
      #39102 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:11 PM

and all interests from New Orleans to Tampa better pucker up....

Dennis is coming..

cat 4 before it hits Cuba....

cat 2 1/2 after cuba...

cat 4, briefly 5...and back to a 3-4 when it hits land...

worst case scenario....steering currents stall....and the hurricane does too.

supposedly camille stalled..


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FL_Grasshopper
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Loc: Tarpon Springs, Fl 28.15N 82.74W
Re: Plots... [Re: st.pete boy]
      #39103 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:11 PM

Quote:

WEST COAST OF FL COULD SEE WINDS OF 55+ MPH IN GUSTS ALREADY FORECASTED TO HIT ST. PETERSBURG AND ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST!!! Close to the intensity of H. Jeanne when it crossed into Hillsborough last year...but less intense by about 18 mph (Jeanne had gusts to 78 mph in Pinellas County, this forecast is for 60):

That was right near my house, highest gusts were at Anderson Park in Tarpon less than 2 miles from home... Hope this one will not be as bad, I have grown fond of my power....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...9&map.y=156




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Lysis
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Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39104 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:12 PM

Flamommy, If you are in a mobile home, you may want leave an evaquation option open just to be safe. Severe weather may also be a factor across the west coast of the peninsula.

--------------------
cheers


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Re: Models [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39105 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:13 PM

Will they move Discovery back indoors? I can't remember last year but it seems like they left which ever shuttle it was out there during one of the storms that passed by.

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FlaMommy
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Re: Fox news [Re: Lysis]
      #39106 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:14 PM

yes unfortunately we are in a mobile home which therefore any evacuations occur...we automatically get evacuated....im just hoping that we do....just in case it does decide to make bee line for us....but even on that note i dont want to have to...hope thats understandable....well thank you for the update

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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FireAng85
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Re: Shuttle?? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #39107 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:16 PM

Richie,
I am watching Orlando Channel 6 and they just said that the shuttle is still scheduled to take off Wednesday, but that NASA is watching Dennis very closely. Sorry, that's all I have for now.
Angie
Firefighter/Paramedic - Orange County

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
track [Re: Missers]
      #39108 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:16 PM

OK. I can't trust my eyes so I actually drew a line on the monitor between the forecast position points on the visible satelite. It is true that it is following the same heading of the NHC forecast. Just a few miles north but definately following the forecast, as of now.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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GERRYL
Unregistered




Re: Plots... [Re: FL_Grasshopper]
      #39109 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:18 PM

Has anyone seen or heard any info on the upcoming update @ 5:00 pm?

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Missers
Registered User


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Re: Models [Re: Katie]
      #39110 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:18 PM

Quote:

Will they move Discovery back indoors? I can't remember last year but it seems like they left which ever shuttle it was out there during one of the storms that passed by.



There were not any shuttles out there last year.

If NASA does decide to move Discovery, it will be back to the VAB.

Edited to add: If there is a risk of winds 69 mph or higher, NASA could roll the shuttle back to the Vehicle Assembly Building.


Edited by Missers (Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: Plots... [Re: GERRYL]
      #39111 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:19 PM

A bit too early, info usually starts rolling in around 4:30 - 4:40

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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Plots... [Re: Doombot!]
      #39112 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Dennis could be upgraded to a category three in the next update.

In fact, I would be a little supprised if he wasn't.

--------------------
cheers


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Models [Re: Katie]
      #39113 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Wow, I never thought of that . After all this wait and redesigning on that Shuttle you know they won`t leave that baby out in the weather especially if it gets real nasty. If they leave it out its a good sign for us over here on the Space Coast. Gee I wonder whats going on up there at the cape right now ???..........

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recmod
Weather Guru


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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
What a more NW track means for FL [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39114 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

ftlaudbob has been continually predicting a more northerly track into south FL. While no one certainly would like to see this storm in their backyard, Bob's scenario might actually be a course of least regret. A further west track, ultimately striking the northern Gulf coast from Pensacola to New Orleans would be potentially devastating wherever it makes landfall (especially New Orleans). A slightly more northwest track, scraping along the FL west coast could be potentially devastating for the Tampa area.
This more northward prediction of Bob's would track the center of Dennis right along the full length of the Cuban mountains before emerging over the FL Straits. A South FL landfall would be from a FAR weaker storm than any of the other scenarios described above. Those mountains would tear Dennis apart....I think he might even emerge over the Straits below hurricane strength.
Don't think my post here is jumping on the SE FL bandwagon,....all I am saying is that SHOULD this be the ultimate track, it might be the least destructive.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

--Lou


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Ricreig
User


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Re: Fox news [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39115 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:21 PM

Quote:

thank you so much but we are ready to evacuate if necessary....we are in an evacuation zone automatically...so no worries on boarding up....just waiting for the go ahead...and we are there....thank you all so much for helping me understand all these things that are possible and so forth...


As much as the models have waved back and forth, their average position has remained relatively stable. I think the NHC forecast has been 'wiggleing' a little bit (so it looks like they're doing something <grin>), but again their forecast has been that this storm will be well offshore almost since the first day. What has changed more is the INTENSITY and SIZE of this storm. A small Charley sized storm probably wouldn't affect you at all at that distance, but this is a much larger storm so the edges got closer to you. The strongest winds will be from the S-SW in your area (don't park on the NORTH side of a large tree I feel that you won't have to evacuate only that you should include those plans as a possibility, albeit not a great possibility.

Having said that, we are *still* 2+ days from its closest approach in your area and there is time for the steering to change and drive the storm closer. It is also possible that it could be pushed a bit further away. In either event, worry and fear will NOT help you or anyone else. Planning and preparation will reduce the risk of injury so if you've done that, it is out of our hands and worry won't change the outcome.

I'm only a few miles further than you from the storm and we are in the 50% chance of TS winds. So, I expect breezy condition, perhaps some unneeded rain and hopefully NO tornados. Actually, I 'fear' the tornados far more than Dennis but tornados can occur even in a summer thunderstorm, so again, watch, prepare and relax!

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
notice Dennis growing? [Re: Doombot!]
      #39116 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:24 PM

category 4 within 18 hours....

(i'm allowed to make real wild predictions, cause I don't know no better)


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Mike
Weather Watcher


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Re: Models [Re: Missers]
      #39117 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:24 PM

NASA is planning on staging the crawler transporter at the Pad tomorrow at 0445. They have not made thge decision to rollback yet.

Mike


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Lysis
User


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Re: Fox news [Re: Ricreig]
      #39118 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:25 PM

Dennis's eye has contracted...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
cheers


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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State of Emergency [Re: Ricreig]
      #39119 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:27 PM

Bay News 9 just announced that Governer Bush has declared a State of Emergency for the state of Florida because of Hurricane Dennis "concerns".

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Fox news [Re: Lysis]
      #39120 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:28 PM

what does that mean? "Dammit Jim, I'm a firefighter, not a meteorologist"

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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tornado00
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Re: Eyewall Replacment Cycle [Re: Lysis]
      #39121 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:29 PM

Looks like Dennis is going through an eyewall replacment cycle. I think he has a shot to be a Cat. 4 sometime.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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Lysis
User


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Re: Fox news [Re: FireAng85]
      #39122 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:29 PM

What does what mean, FireAng85 ?

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 04:29 PM)


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39123 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:30 PM

PLEASE PLEASE TELL ME YOUR JOKING....i know your not but wishful thinking....is it goin on to be on the news at 5pm?

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39124 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:32 PM

Channel 9 just reported On line that Jeb delared a state of Emergendy because of Dennis concerns!

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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39125 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:32 PM

That's really early for Jeb to be doing that, but I guess they rather get it out early so no one can say that they didn't warn us early.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Fox news [Re: Lysis]
      #39126 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:32 PM

The eyewall has contracted? Does that mean it's going through the eye wall replacement cycle?

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: State of Emergency [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39127 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:33 PM

OK People, do not freak out. Bush always claims a State of Emergency before an impending hurricane hits. Right now the hurricane is aiming near the panhandle (thats florida too the last I checked). So do not freak out... Its protocol. It happens every hurricane..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: Eyewall Replacment Cycle [Re: tornado00]
      #39128 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:33 PM

Yep, it is pretty normal from what I have seen in past storms for the eyewall to collaps on itself and then pop up as a stronger storm with a new, better than before, eye wall.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39129 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:33 PM

he is pointing to where he is going...and Cuba is firing up some thunderstorms to soak things up a bit, before Dennis gets there and mops up...

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
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Re: Fox news [Re: Ricreig]
      #39130 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:33 PM

I saw Joe B. on Fox News Channel and this is what HE said he thinks will happen:

That Dennis will continue moving in a WNW (?) motion, skirting the entire coastline of Cuba and entering in the central part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards N.O. He also said that "Remember with Ivan last year? Everyone saw a NW motion and screamed "MIAMI" but it ended up in Mobile."

Only problem with that scenario is that Ivan passed on the WESTERN side of Jamaica and just barely missed hitting the WESTERN tip of Cuba.

Does anyone here believe there is any credence to JB's scenario? I mean, Dennis would have to make a SHARP left hand turn to completely miss Cuba at this point. I suppose it's possible, but it does not seem likely. But, I could be wrong.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Fox news [Re: FireAng85]
      #39131 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:34 PM

Looks like it is going through an eyewall replacment cycle, you can really see it on the infared imagery.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Posts: 298
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #39132 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:35 PM

One action this allows is the locking of prices. If supplies are already running short, the gas stations are forbidden from raising their prices artificially during a state of emergency in Florida.

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #39133 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:36 PM

Amen to that

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Thunder
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #39134 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:36 PM

Quote:

OK People, do not freak out. Bush always claims a State of Emergency before an impending hurricane hits. Right now the hurricane is aiming near the panhandle (thats florida too the last I checked). So do not freak out... Its protocol. It happens every hurricane..




What he/she said.


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mikendale
Registered User


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Posts: 1
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #39135 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:36 PM Attachment (151 downloads)

New to forum. Live in Pensacola. Went through Ivan! P'cola will not be same for many years and if Dennis the Menace gives us a direct or NE quad...we're screwed.

Keep your heads down and good luck to all...


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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State of Emergency [Re: FireAng85]
      #39136 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:37 PM

Here is the Statement

http://www.tampabays10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15851


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FlaMommy
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39137 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:38 PM

thanks jamie but you beat me to it...lol....also they are already handing out sandbags....to people around here doesnt look good...but we will wait and see.....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #39138 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:39 PM

You mean wstrn Cuba right? Just making sure I undertsand what you're saying & heck for that matter understand period.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1421
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39139 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:40 PM

What it means is that he can now call up the National Guard if needed, the State EOC is on full alert and other stuff. Also, there are hurricane watches and tropical storm watches in part of the state, the Keys are being evacuated, etc. It's standard, but it does show you that they are probably in contact with NHC mets who are giving them more info before we get it.
Remember: just as easily as he declared it, he could cancel it, too. Just pay attention to the news and you'll be fine.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39140 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:42 PM

If I read him right, I think he means to Cuba and beyond... But, generally big storms make a northern-ish turn... Give Dennis a chance to...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39141 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:42 PM

yep...and I wouldn't discount Joe Bastardi...he knows more than most of us....

if he thinks New Orleans...he may be right...remember, He's right about Ivan...everyone thought it would hook...and it never did.....

interesting hurricane...

can't predict em......shoot...I think a dart board with cities on it would be about as accurate...

I am leaning back to Mississippi again...


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39142 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:43 PM

The State has their own Meteorologist that works closely with the NHC.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39143 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:43 PM

Just look at the thunderstorms igniting off of western Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
cheers


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LOWER KEYS [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39144 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:43 PM

The 5pm is out and Hurricane Warnings are now issued for the lower keys:
Quote:

Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 07, 2005


...Dennis now a major hurricane...hurricane warnings issued for the
lower Florida Keys...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning is issued for the lower
Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas...and a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the remainder
of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef
and Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and
Florida Bay.




Also, Dennis is now a Cat 3 hurricane w/ 115 mph winds...957mb (28.29) still moving NW

--Lou


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Loc: South Tampa
Re: Plots... [Re: GERRYL]
      #39145 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:44 PM

The 5:00 advisory was posted.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Posts: 571
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39146 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:44 PM

State of Emergency also helps support evacuations and allow for opening of shelters.

Oh, Now Cat 3 and Hurricane warnings up for Lower Keys.

--------------------
Jim


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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #39147 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:44 PM

Just heard on the Weather Channel that it was upgraded to Cat. 3 strenght, don't know the specifics yet.

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Dennis now at Cat 3 [Re: Terra]
      #39148 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:45 PM

Dennis is now a Major Hurricane with winds of 115mph. Moving NW at 115, pressure 957mb

here is the 5pm track


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Rasvar]
      #39149 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:45 PM

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/index.htm

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Lysis]
      #39150 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:45 PM

5 PM is somewhat out; 115 MPH. I'm shocked that the forcast didn't move to the east much if at all.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Thunder]
      #39151 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:47 PM

Flood watch issued for W. Central Florida for expected 3-5 inches of Dennis related rain spanning Friday night through Sunday morning...do I still tee it up at 7:30 Saturday?
Tropical Storm Risk increased their numbers to 15/9/4...had been 14/8/4 I wonder why?

--------------------
doug


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orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: State of Emergency [Re: Doombot!]
      #39152 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:47 PM

That's odd that the track didn't change.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Doombot!]
      #39153 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:48 PM

No real reason to make a larger shift right now. Maybe enlarge the "cone of danger" but the predicted path is still near the middle of model blends. If the next model run continues with the east bias, I suspect there will be a small shift. As always, pay attention to the cone and not the line.

--------------------
Jim


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Storm Hunter
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Re: State of Emergency [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #39154 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:49 PM

so landfall sunday afternoon after 2pm? between Panama City and Pensacola? Looks like it may be moving faster at landfall

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 07 2005 04:51 PM)


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Rasvar]
      #39155 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:51 PM

are t/s watches still up for us here in miami?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Posts: 184
Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: Terra]
      #39156 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:51 PM

Not freaking...did my preps DAYS ago...put the plywood up tomorrow if needed...hubby is with EOC so I end up riding things out alone with the kids.

Just awed by Mother Nature & immpressed with the knowledge here...learning as I go ya' know.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: State of Emergency [Re: trinibaje]
      #39157 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:53 PM

No change for Miami. However, it should be noted that a hurricane warning now triggers Floridas hurricane deductibles. Change to this year is that it is a season long deductible and not a per storm. Also, if you wanted to close on a home the next few days, you are going to be put on hold. All insurers will not issue any policies once warnings are up.

--------------------
Jim


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Doombot!]
      #39158 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:54 PM

Track did shift a little to the East.. Think they are erroring on the side of caution. Most likely you will see watches and warnings go up along the coast of Florida to cover them..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: trinibaje]
      #39159 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:54 PM

Yes, they are still up in Miami.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39160 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:54 PM

That is so me. Boards go up a day earlier than probably necessary. My hubby is
EOC also and I sit here with 17 yr old son and the pets. But we are always ready. Love this site.... great input


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Rasvar]
      #39161 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:55 PM

Quote:

No change for Miami. However, it should be noted that a hurricane warning now triggers Floridas hurricane deductibles. Change to this year is that it is a season long deductible and not a per storm. Also, if you wanted to close on a home the next few days, you are going to be put on hold. All insurers will not issue any policies once warnings are up.




you are right these people stopped binding polices since yesterday!!!

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Fox news [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39162 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:55 PM

Maybe it's just me, but looking at everything I can look at right now, I can't not see anything that is going to keep it from maintaining it's track and riding up the coast. But I don't know much. No pro here!!!!

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: State of Emergency [Re: Rasvar]
      #39163 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:56 PM

My Insurance company actually put a hold on new policies or policy changes yesterday. I called to see if I could up my coverage on my homeowners and they said, "sure, once the storm has passed." They had already froze all new policies or changes to a policy.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: trinibaje]
      #39164 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:56 PM

Yes, the only thing that changed in the US was this:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...

Everything else is the same.

Bill


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Track was shifted slightly east [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39165 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:57 PM

"Dennis is then expected to move around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Although this sounds
simple enough...the details of the turn around the ridge are
important for residents of Florida. In the latest model runs...the
GFS has shifted a little farther east and is now very close to the
GFDL track. These two models are the easternmost of the dynamical
suite. The U.K. Met. Office model remains well west of almost all
other guidance. Our forecast is adjusted only slightly to the east
and is very close to both the simple dynamical consensus track...
CONU...and to the FSU superensemble."

from the 5pm Discussion


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #39166 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:58 PM

Yes, they don't get the graphics updated as quickly as they do the rest of the information. I imagine it takes awhile to update that.
I don't remember what the state met's name is, but I do remember he was very smart -- and very calming!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: State of Emergency [Re: BillD]
      #39167 - Thu Jul 07 2005 04:59 PM

Still moving at a decent speed to the NW(just a bit more W than N). In the last 24hrs it's gained more lat. than long. only twice between advisories. The other times it's moved more west than north. Have to keep an eye on that, and see when it starts trending to be more equal, or more N.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: State of Emergency [Re: AgentB]
      #39168 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:03 PM

channel 13 wtvt is saying its going to be several hundred miles away from tampa bay....and the tropical storm force winds are going to remain off the coast....now tell me about that one....so now my mother in law is in the "denial"....well im ready ....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Space Shuttle Management to Meet in 1/2 Hour [Re: Jamiewx]
      #39169 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:03 PM

Space Shuttle Managment to meet in 1/2 hour to determine if they are going to roll back space shuttle. I believe they are not going to risk it, because of the sheer size of the storm. Its not that they are stating that it will hit KSC, but if the storm wobbles some they are worried about higher gusts of winds.

Seems the news is now freaking out here..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Space Shuttle Management to Meet in 1/2 Hour [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #39170 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:07 PM

channel 13 wtvt is saying its going to be several hundred miles away from tampa bay....and the tropical storm force winds are going to remain off the coast....now tell me about that one....so now my mother in law is in the "denial"....well im ready ....

Right now you should expect tropical storm force wind gusts.

--------------------
cheers


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: dennis is pointing to where he is going....look at latest frame... [Re: NewWatcher]
      #39171 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:07 PM

When he goes in that's when I'll know.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Latest GOM setup [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39172 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:08 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: FlaMommy]
      #39173 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:10 PM

I just watched Paul Delgatto (sp?) and his partner...he said that they are dropping all kinds of instruments to see what that High is doing/behaving and that the information coming back is that it is moving further east. They also said that we WILL feel effects even if it's 150-200 miles offshore.
On News Channel 8, that cone now has those lines of "error" into the western peninsula.
It will a nervewracking next 1-2 days...will it move? will it not move? I hate this part.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39174 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:12 PM

Should we move? LOL!!

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Latest GOM setup [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #39175 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:12 PM

Could you please explain what that map means? I'm not sure how to read it. Thank you!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39176 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:17 PM

I am watching these model runs http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ and it is a scary scenario to have the eye stay out over reasonably deep and very warm water, run up the coast, and landfall into the panhandle. Given that the worst of it is to the north and the east of the center, that means it would just beat the crap out of the state from north to south, punching us all the way up until it direct hits the big bend area over to St. Marks. Given the population centers on the west coast, if it does that this could be ugly. And whoever it was that just commented on having to sweat it out now for the next 2-3 days, I totally agree. This is very anxious time.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: lawgator]
      #39177 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:20 PM

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CENTRAL
GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRI. HURRICANE
DENNIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF LATE FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT. Dennis IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH Dennis WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SE GULF TONIGHT.

web page

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
For the mets? [Re: lawgator]
      #39178 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:24 PM

What is the UKMET model picking up on...or not picking up on...that the others are/aren't?

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: For the mets? [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39179 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:26 PM

Quote:

What is the UKMET model picking up on...or not picking up on...that the others are/aren't?




that canadian model looks bad for the entire state

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #39180 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:29 PM

So...basically what they are saying is that this will be CLOSER to the western Florida peninsula because the weak high pressure ridge is moving to the east?
I know I must sound like the stupidest person in the world, but I'm not quite sure EXACTLY whether this is GOOD or BAD for Central Florida, LOL!
Thanks for being so patient!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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kerry
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #39181 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:31 PM

Hi! We'll be arriving in Destin Sat morning for vacation....anyone know anything about the stom and that area?

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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39182 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:33 PM

Colleen, I don't understand it either....

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iloathedennis
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: kerry]
      #39183 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:34 PM

Quote:

Hi! We'll be arriving in Destin Sat morning for vacation....anyone know anything about the stom and that area?




I live in Destin and it doesn't look so good right now. We're evacuating late Saturday/Early Sunday. We'll just have to wait and see.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39184 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:35 PM

Colleen i dont know either, but our local met just said that high off fla east coast
was found to be quite a bit weaker than prev. thought and should move east
bringing Dennis closer to fla


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Latest GOM setup [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #39185 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:36 PM

Looking at this map, I see a weakness between the high's that runs right along the west coast of FL. Is this map a statement of current weather conditions or a forecast?

If the situation as presented in the map pans out, it looks like a West Coast scraper all the way to the Panhandle

--Lou


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: State of Emergency [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39186 - Thu Jul 07 2005 05:36 PM