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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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bob895
Unregistered




Dennis [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39270 - Thu Jul 07 2005 07:58 PM

Was this huge drop in pressure and increase in winds expected?

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Big Time Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #39271 - Thu Jul 07 2005 07:59 PM

Quote:

You can kind of see the ridge east of florida in this image. If it builds westward it could either force the storm more westward, or trap it to let it meander a bit and then escape to the Northeast. If it weakens or receeds, it would allow for more easterly movement. It's all speculation though. I'm not one of the Mets (Sky Blue names now!) so I'm out of my leauge on this talk.

Image here




I think most of the guidance indicates a weakening/eastward shift of the bermuda ridge. The UKMET model seems to be an outlier now compared to the GFDL, FSUMM5, GFS, NOGAPS, & Canadian. The european model is the only one now showing a stronger ridge & thus it pushes the storm more NW into NO. While the ridge appears to be weakening, the track of Dennis will tend to slide along its western perhipery. I don't see anything that causes the ridge to completely collaspe or be shoved dramtically eastward - such as a large mid-latitude trof. So the storm will likely "turn" north at some point, not hook NE like Charley. Where it turns north of course is the million dollar (or should I say billion dollar question). Current trends suggest somewhere west of key west but it could be as far east as the middle keys, which would drive it northward up the center of the peninsula.

--------------------
RJB


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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 15
Re: Dennis [Re: bob895]
      #39272 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:00 PM

Looks like the southern coast of Cuba is getting hammered now.

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis [Re: PolkBB]
      #39273 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:01 PM

Does JB think that it is still going to hit extreme Western Cuba anymore?

--------------------
cheers


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WeatherNLUAway
Unregistered




Re: Big Time Dennis [Re: Terra]
      #39274 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:03 PM

Sorry I am at the in-laws, but I wanted to post and say that I am leaning more and more towards a Florida landfall, but I'm not ready to rule anything east of Grand Isle. I feel so bad for you guys over there in Florida, especially seeing the way Dennis is bombing out. It's hard to believe that such an amzing storm is out there and it's July 7. I can only hope for the best and pray for you guys over there, because if it comes in anywhere near where the current projection is then the same people who suffered for Ivan will suffer again. It's just not fair.

Anyway, back to Dennis. The storm is really something and at this point the sky is the limit. Remember, just because it goes over Cuba doesn't mean it's going to weaken that much. A hurricane I studied a lot growing up because I lived it was Elena '85 and I distinctly remember it's pressure dropping some 10MB while it traveled over Cuba. I am going to be interested to see the effect the land mass of Cuba has on the storm and to see if Dennis tries to bounce off and ride the southern coast.

Again, while I am happy for myself and my property in New Orleans, I feel for you guys in Florida. Good luck, again.......it looks like you are going to need a lot of it.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dennis [Re: bob895]
      #39276 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:05 PM

Quote:

Was this huge drop in pressure and increase in winds expected?




Yes and no. Dennis was expected to keep strengthening until he hit Cuba, but this is probably stronger than most ventured to guess. Cuba will weaken Dennis, as I'm pretty sure he'll hit some mountains, but he'll be able to crank back up again once he gets out the other side. We're looking at Dennis probably hanging around Cat 3 or 4 status through his Gulf trip. Coupled with his large size, this is very bad news indeed.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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CubanRecon
Unregistered




Re: Dennis [Re: StormHound]
      #39277 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:07 PM

What happens to Recon Flights while Dennis is over Cuba, will they stop outright until it passes?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #39278 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:08 PM

ROFLOLOL, Lysis....that was golden. I saw him at 3:30pm today he was still saying it was going to be just skirting the coast of Cuba, head to the central GOM and hit somewhere between NO and MS. I almost fell off my chair.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Dennis [Re: CubanRecon]
      #39279 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:08 PM

any reports in jamaica yet?

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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
8 PM [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39280 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:10 PM

Serious matter here. Dennis is still moving NW at 15, but it is now at 130mph, hurricane force winds out to 45 miles. Thoughts go out to those in SE Cuba, and lets keep our fingers crossed this thing jogs west and keeps its worst weather from Key West.

--------------------
South Florida

Edited by Brett (Thu Jul 07 2005 08:11 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Eyewall on radar [Re: StormHound]
      #39281 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:11 PM

the center of the storm is starting to show up on Cienfuegos radar (near center of country)...looks like the little tip that sticks out on south cuba is getting hammered right now.... but looks like the eye will stay offshore until late friday when Dennis crosses cuba...

this link is starting to slow down....meaning web site is getting a lot of traffic.... try this link
Cienfuegos

if that does not work try here
radar single


trying to translate spanish, its been sometime now, but i think i read a report of winds sustained near 60mph in a southern city of cuba with gust to 82mph, within the last hour

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: StormHound]
      #39282 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:12 PM

I don't remember if I read this on MidAtlanticWX or in one of the discussions from NHC, but I DO remember reading that it could get down as low as 931mb. The way we're going, we might hit that tonight.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 8 PM [Re: Brett]
      #39283 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:13 PM

While I am not sure... I see no reason as to why they would stop recon while the cyclone is over land, however I am not sure if they would fly one at night. Actually, It guess it is mostly instrument flying anyway, so I imagine they could do even that.

--------------------
cheers


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richg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 10
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Dennis [Re: CubanRecon]
      #39284 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:13 PM

Quote:

What happens to Recon Flights while Dennis is over Cuba, will they stop outright until it passes?




Their flights will be limited somewhat. The US military is forbidden from flying in Cuban airspace except for certain routes(i.e approaches to GITMO.)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis [Re: richg]
      #39285 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:15 PM

... right, that makes sense.


EDIT: Storm Hunter, thank you for that link. I have been wanting a cuban radar site all day.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 08:16 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dennis [Re: CubanRecon]
      #39286 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:15 PM

recon flights will fly around cuba until the storm exits coast....like Charley did last year, the min the storm exits the coast, an AF aircraft will most likely enter the center..... the NOAA and NASA flights will be all the way around the storm (ALL DAY)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Brief 8pm Update [Re: Terra]
      #39287 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:16 PM

Terra has the right idea. Just take a sheet of paper and right down the coordinates on each advisory. Graph paper works great. Do the math and you can see the smaller jogs this way and that way.
Don't forget to watch the Advisories though. And don't get stuck on "the skinny black line".
If you are in the "Cone", make sure that you are ready to leave as soon as your area is asked to leave.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Brief 8pm Update [Re: danielw]
      #39288 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:17 PM

Yes, this season we got a big waterproof chart of the Caribbean, Gulf, and northwest Atlantic. Tracking them by hand is much more... intimate. I highly recommend it.

--------------------
cheers


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Brief 8pm Update [Re: danielw]
      #39289 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:17 PM

can someone please inform me whether tampa is still in the cone ....my mother in law saw on tv that we are out of the cone....i want to prove her wrong....she said shes not evacuating if we have to...well she lives with us and if need be my husband, daughter and myself will be leaving....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39290 - Thu Jul 07 2005 08:18 PM

Problem with JB is he's stubborn as a mule. Once he makes up his mind he'll devise a scenaio in his head as to how it will happen (AKA, drinking you're own bath water). On the other hand, don't dismiss the possibility that after the Keys Dennis may turn to the WNW. It is possible. I don't buy it, but this is a tough one!! Like Ed D. said earlier, he's rounding the subtropical ridge and will eventually take a NNW trajectory. That is IF the high in the plains doesn't suppress and couple with a building ridge in the Western Atlantic. I personally don't see any ridge building there right now. Just a small surface ridge petering out off the east coast. Time will tell the tale, but NO this won't exit the western tip of Cuba....utter nonsense. He has slowed to a crawl though

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