FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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No, it would put us on the west side of the storm. We ended up on the bad side of everyone of them last year, except for , and that sucked. If it went on the east coast, we would at least be on the weaker side. That's all I'm saying...... sorry if it didn't make sense
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Accuweather has again changed their track...moving west from Panama City towards the fl/al border
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
So with the cluster of models moving back towards the west the earlier talk of possibly skirting the west coast of FL it this still a possibility?
Absolutely! Don't anyone on the west coast write this thing off. A change in course of just 50-100 miles can make the difference between flying 2 x 4s vs broken palm fronds.
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RJB
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Eagerly waiting the next round of models with the ridge data in SE FL as they, I think, will determine our fate. Fidel better hold on to his hat tonight!
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WeatherNLUAway
Unregistered
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Looking at the NASA site which updates the sat pic more often that the site floater, it sure looks to me like is doing everything he can to miss the extreme southwestern tip of Cuba to the south. Too few frames to see if it is a trend, but doesn't look ready to visit Cuba yet.
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COgal
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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Sorry to crowd up the board but need help please. Since last season I have become partially blind and unable to see the board very well. I am having difficulty scrolling through all the posts and cannot weed out the information I need.
Could someone either pm me or give me a quick rundown on what is happening and where this is heading? Perhaps a link or two to the best model sites. I am unable to sort through what I had last year.
Thank you so much.
Lauren
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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There track must be tied heavily to each model run. They definitely cant be using JB's prediction... I do not blame them
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Shortwave IR Loop 
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WeatherNLUAway
Unregistered
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Bev, I don't use the Shortwave much, but that's an excellent view of the eye coming onto the screen. As you can see on there as well, it looks like ' eye will probably miss or just barely skim the EXTREME southwestern tip of Cuba. About two or three hours ago it looked as though it would go across a decent part of that area.
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Mike S
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Crestview, FL
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Has anyone seen any rainfall data on the storm yet :?: It appears to have the potential to dump large amounts. I'm a little worried about the city becoming an island again...and with winds to go with it FEMA and the power companies won't be able to get in for some time
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GLT
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
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Well no expert - but having watched 'em all after Charlie last year I sure don't remember the models being that much in agreement this many days out.
Does seem the UKMET nailed one last year though and it is the way west one this time (just like Joe B.?)
Sincere wishes to those on the FL/AL border if the models hold. I don't think I could take it again.
glt
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
What is the extrapolated line represent?
Best than I can tell is the average, or average mean of the other 6 models.
They went from an Orange Beach>Appalachie Bay coverage at 4PM.
To an Orange Beach> Pensacola coverage at 8pm.
This is just a tightening of the models. And based on what I see on the maps. It didn't affect the Official Track.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?4
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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yeah watching it on cuban radar gives the appearance that the eye will not make landfall at the little tip of land that sticks out if it continues on its present course... however, some of the eye wall will
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I think we'll know if the UKMET really has a handle on as it approaches Cuba for its initial landfall and then when it exits Cuba... so far it still looks to be on track per the but the next 12 hours will tell is UKMET Is on to something or it is out to lunch... for NO sake they better hope its out to lunch..
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I never wanted to be wrong,more than I do right now.My prayers go out to all who will be affected by this storm.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Quote:
I never wanted to be wrong,more than I do right now.My prayers go out to all who will be affected by this storm.
HUH ?????? 
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
I dont mean this to question anyone's knowledge but my own. Yesterday, when all of the models were saying similar thngs everyone seemed very suspicious. Now it seems that more people are seeing that as evidence that they models are somewhat verifying each other. What changed?
Thanks again for helping all of us who don't know muc understand and stay on guard.
The models have shown a remarkable consistency for plotting ' track over the last 2 or 3 days. All of the guidance correctly predicted that would slide between Jamaica and Haiti and be somewhere south of the Cuban coast through tonite. However, beyond the next 12-24 hours, there have been some fairly wild swings (i.e. yesterday in NO, today having Panama City). The most consistent models, ironically, have been the ones farthest east (Canadian), MM5, and the one farthest west (UKMET). The Canadian moves N-NW up the peninsula just inside the west coast and the UKMET has a landfall somewhere west of NO. What drives people like me (& others) crazy is not seeing a consistent trend in the models over the last 24 hours. When we say trend we mean, they're all adjusting their tracks in the same direction (east or west) and the disparity in predicted paths narrows (window gets smaller and smaller). Right now we have a major hurricane that is likely to strike somewhere in the GOM within the next 72 hours - but we have this huge window from the west side of peninsula to west of NO. This absolutely must be drivin the boys at nuts! Thats why I think they've just decided to default the 72 hour projection & wait till the models settle down. What's really scary is if the Canadian is correct? If so, Major Hurricane conditions might be experienced in less than 36 hours along a good portion of FLs west coast.
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RJB
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Marco Island =[
Unregistered
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check this out!!!  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
yeah watching it on cuban radar gives the appearance that the eye will not make landfall at the little tip of land that sticks out if it continues on its present course... however, some of the eye wall will
I was very interested in seeing whether or not was going to make a direct hit on the Pilon area. I had a feeling that if it did it meant a more northernly movement. Passing to the south would mean a more NW or WNW movement.
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Check the Surf
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cbnew
Unregistered
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I have watched your predictions in the past. I am in Orlando. I pray that we do not get hit again, but also pray for all others if it does not get us.
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