F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 210 (Idalia) , Major: 210 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 210 (Idalia) Major: 210 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #39611 - Fri Jul 08 2005 01:58 AM

2am is at least up at Weatherunderground: 2am Public Advisory

20.3N / 78.5W, still going NW at 15, pressure at 955.

Cuba reported gust around 67mph...so it's building for them. Going to be a long, dark night in Cuba. Why do these things always seem to love hitting areas after nightfall?

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Terra]
      #39612 - Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Dennis WAS LOCATED
OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST...OR 80 MILES...125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD
CUBA.

Bingo.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #39613 - Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM

Quote:

flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of Dennis to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?

I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.




--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39614 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:02 AM

2am was late due to recon vortex from NOAA flight

opps forgot to wite RECCO Observations
here's latest i have:

000
URNT11 KWBC 080607
97779 06074 60195 7751/ 30600 19047 1007/ /3121
RMK NOAA2 0704A Dennis OB 11 KWBC

That's a standard recon update. Not a vortex~danielw

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #39615 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 AM

Quote:

flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of Dennis to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?

I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour. .And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.


.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39616 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:09 AM

Bob, sure I know about wobbles and this motion to the west in the last two hours is not just a wobble. At the same time, I am in no way saying that this is a permanent movement. It's going to have to do this for quite a few more hours before it would effect the overall motion. Lastly, I don't think I have ever called you a fool......I just so happen to disagree with your post regarding New Orleans. Sorry if I offended.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #39617 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:14 AM

You did not offend me at all.I think the 5:00pm update Friday will be huge.We should know then what the interaction with Cuba will bring.Do believe it is only July 8th????????We have a long way to go.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39618 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM




.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.




Yes it has moved that way. But for the last 1.5 to 2 hours the eye has moved almost due WEST. That's 270degrees. And Dennis also appear to be in an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Should he continue his current track. He will probably pass South of the Island off the Western tip of CUBA.
I believe that's the Isle of Youth ( Isla de la Juventad).

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39619 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM

I agree, that's the amazing part. We're staring at a classic cat 4 hurricane on July 8. Makes you wonder what we might be looking at on September 8.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39620 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM

Bob the chance the storm is coming to your house is about 1%. If your right, then you will be credited greatly. I will be in amazement of what made it do it. Anyways good luck to your forecast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39621 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

where do you think Dennis will strike cuba again....post some cords.

i am calling near -81w and 22n.
What is everyone else thinking second landfall will be?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #39622 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

Again I said South Florida not Miami or Ft laud.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39623 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM

Quote:

We have a long way to go.





You can say that again.
I do see the more westward movement...also looks like the eye is reforming.
Guess what? It'll still be there in the morning.
I'm also guessing that by 8:00pm Sunday we'll know where it's going.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: danielw]
      #39624 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:24 AM

I was going to say that there is a more west trend,until the last frame.This thing will drive us all nuts.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39625 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM

http://merak.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif


storms have refired near center...looks like on radar/sats, nw eyewall is open

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39626 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM

If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.

I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #39627 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:28 AM

Do you see the shift back towards the north at the end?

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #39628 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM

Quote:

If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.

I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.


WIMP.....Just kidding,losing my mind wih this thing.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39629 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM

No

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #39630 - Fri Jul 08 2005 02:36 AM

Easy does it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 126 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 41999

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center