danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Seems he parted with the band that you were talking about. About 0945Z over the southern coast of Cuba.
The higher cloud tops on the ESE side of the storm are still there,but no high clouds are connecting them.
I saw the eye, too. Clearly featured.
Notice the beginning of a 'sawtooth' pattern, on the Northwestern part of the lower cloud, in the last few frames.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Oh contray in some cases,didn't you notice how quietly navigated the strait there didn't you.He is avioding land thus far but that is about to end with the tip of Cuba.The forward change of speed will not let him dodge the next parcel of land.I would expect a significant change W on the rest of the models that where E of the MS/AL line and this sucks.I mentioned this in reference to another response from a poster that once he cleared the strait look for a WNW direction.
The last 9 hrs has brought a 1.3N/2.0W @ 303'(290' is a better WNW).I really cannot see this Guy changing anytime soon with the forward speed increasing.The UKMET.EURO have been on N.O. for DAYS now.Then you throw the that way and the latest track kinda of eerie for CGOM.The FL panhandle is not out of the woods yet for sure.Saturday morning the should have a good handle on the track.
Like to add that an ULL looks to be developing possibly in TX.It's looks to be moving faster than could be our saving grace(MS\AL) if the two meet at that the right time.
Edited by javlin (Fri Jul 08 2005 11:35 AM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Guys - looking at the IR and WV loops, seems to be packing some pretty powerful storms as far as 400 miles directly east of his eye. I'm thinking I'm reading the IR wrong - he can't be that big. So, how far east are you seeing the storms flair up?
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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on the floater what does mslp mean? and i still think its gonna pull a charlie. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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It is time to put away the models as they have told us everything we need to know....Dennis' motion and the models have been projecting an exit off Cuba at 81-82 now for at least a day and a half...nothing will change on that end of the picture.
The critical area remains the ridge and particularly the western and NW side...WV pix now being processed of this area arepredictive of the future impact the various synoptic features will have on that ridge. The southern part of the ridge has reasserted itself and is very vigorous.
As it stands now the track is verified up to the panahndle, and suggestive of a more eastern land fall nearer Apalachecola...however that depends on the resiliance of the trough barrier..it is possible and I think part of the 's thinking that as a Cat 3 or 4 will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region and will push that trough barrier north and west.
The trough on its southern reaches is pushing east and there is new energy from the NW diving down into Texas but that seems to flatten toward the east as it approaches the GOM. Don't look for the trough to further weaken the ridge on the NW today.
Anyway this is what I am going to watch all day...and disregard the models from here on until finis...
Sorry panhandle...as we are used to here any more hunker down.
If more people would do this kind of observation at this stage of an approaching storm at least for contingency planning we may avoid the OOPS factor so significant in last year...some people here did and clearly said even before crossed western Cuba that the Port Charlotte area was where the currents seemed to be pointing..too much reliance on the models created false impressions.
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doug
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
on the floater what does mslp mean?
MSLP: Minimum Sea-Level Pressure (the lowest pressure found at the cyclone's center... either by aircraft recon or by satellite estimation techniques)
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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i threw the models away along time ago they remind too much as the bcs in football there very misleading too the local people here, and the local media is misleading too i have already seen polk county plates over here in daytona. hows the traffic everywhere else?
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Good grief man.
Why do you say it's gonna "pull a charlie" and scare the bajesus out of a lot of people who are already way too nervous?
What's the proof you have that the pro's aren't giving us?
Ed G
Clermont, Fl
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Lysis
User
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Loc: Hong Kong
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yes... and what happened with "charlie" . 
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cheers
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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its just they are relying on the same models they were last year and they were wrong and just going by a gut feeling i have and i dont have it very often. i just dont like how every year they say panhandle way before it has gotten anywhere.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 8am advisory is out ....everything is the same as the 5am (135mph 950 mb 28.05)....but Stewart does mention that the hurricane is becoming better organized. Since recon is just now reaching , I am sure the information presented in the newest advisory is just an extension of the 5am report....until the new recon data starts coming in. Looking at the latest satellite pics, there is no way that is not stronger than it was 3 hours ago. The eye is much better defined, with the intense convection wrapped all the way areound. I am sure recon will find winds are now closer to 150 with a central pressure near 27.70" (just my personal opinion....don't beat me with a stick for this non-technical viewpoint!) 
--Lou
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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For , this area was still under a hurricane watch/warning. While we were all surprised (NHC included) at what it did, no one should have been completely caught off guard. That is why we have such a large cone of error with these things.
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cheers
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Ok sorry posted on emotions...no need for animosity in this situation...carry on.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
Edited by Shalafi (Fri Jul 08 2005 12:05 PM)
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Today's recon Plan of the Day:
Code:
NOUS42 KNHC 071430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-041
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 08/1200Z A. O8/1200,1800Z
B. NOAA9 0804A B. AFXXX 0904A
C. 08/0600Z C. 08/0800Z
D. NA D. 21.3N 79.8W
E. NA E. 08/1100Z - 08/1830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 09/0000Z A. 09/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1004A B. AFXXX 1104A
C. 08/1800Z C. 08/1800Z
D. NA D. NA
E. NA E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE FLIGHT SIX
A. 09/0000,0600Z A. 09/0900,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1204A B. NOAA2 1304A
C. 08/1930Z C. 09/0500Z
D. 22.0N 81.8W D. 24.0N 83.0W
E. 08/2300Z TO 09/0630Z E. 09/0830Z TO 09/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
All times EDT:
Friday recons at 8 a.m. at surface and upper level.
Friday recon at 2 p.m. at surface.
Friday recon at 8 p.m. at surface, mid level and upper level.
Saturday recon at 2 a.m. at surface.
Saturday recon at 5 a.m. at surface.
Saturday recon at 8 a.m. at surface.
Note that on Friday the 8th we are getting recons every 6 hours; Saturday the recons go to every 3 hours.
Jax Chris
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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And, the motion is still WNW over the past three hours (I know, I've been saying this all night, but it's been called NW, when it really wasn't). 0.2N, 0.4W..... 12-h motion from 8PM-8AM, 1.5N, 2.4W. I don't understand why they keep calling this NW....
It's eye is looking quite impressive this morning. Must have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle last night afterall...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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im not talking bout anyone in here this room is great its the local news staions that are doing it. they do it every year and they make people go which way and then the storm usually follows them. ive tons of polk county plates over here this early in the morning.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at this graphic of the track and current windfield of :
Dennis Track & Windfield
The hurricane-force winds are remaining just offshore the south coast of Cuba. Also, this close-up of the track shows running parallel to the coast. If this course continues for a few more hours, we could see the eye pass between the Isle Of Youth and the southern Cuban coast....on a track to cross Western Cuba in the narrowest part of the island. If this scenario plays out, the interraction of the land will not disrupt nearly as much as a landfall farther east. We could be looking at a stronger storm than originally thought moving into the SE Gulf.
On another note, I keep seeing reports that the Gulf water temperatures in the mid 80's are only warm in the shallow layers, indicating that the storm might actually weaken as it moves across the Gulf. Is this true??? In November 1985, we saw Hurricane Kate strengthen dramatically over the Gulf waters very late in the season when water temps were significantly cooler than we have right now. I don't see water temperature as a problem inhibiting the strength of this hurricane. Any thoughts from anyone??
--Lou
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I was feeling much better about south Florida,until the slow down as of the 8:00am adv.I touched on this late last night.Also it is going back to a more NW dir.South Florida should really watch this thing very very closely through out today and overnight.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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You did say this last night, and it was still moving WNW at that time.... not purely NW. Please take a look at the IR and the coordinates.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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The ridge must be rebuilding...I'm hearing Al/Fl state line.......which means it's slipping back west...
and I live on a boat in Mobile Bay.....I guess I'll tie it down and hi-tail it....
cat 5 soon....
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