pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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It seems to be following the lforecast very closely....I think I will stick to that for now....the key is where it comes off Cuba
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Change in direction in the past three hours (from 8AM-11AM) was 0.5N, 0.4W. This is the first time since yesterday afternoon that the northern motion has won out, although slightly. The last few frames of the IR seem to be following this trend. I think the northerly component will still be winning at 2, unless there is a major shift.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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VandyBrad
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Quote:
kids are too quiet
OMG, Now that is a cause for concern.
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Brad Shumbera
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Actually Terra it did the same before Jamaica, going more northerly than west. I have been thru 3 storms in Pcola and everyone of them took a "jog" to the right withing 25 miles of the coast..not sure if it has to due with temp of water or land or whatever....we need to see where it exits
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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..........."Don't focus on every wobble."
Yeah, right.. heard that one before. Been thru too many cains where we were told don't focus on wobbles and then we got slammed. When a storm of this magnatude is heading toward my home, I worry greatly about every single wobble he'll make because these wxmen have zero clue where it will go - they rely on history and model guidance. I try to rely on good ole' common sense and, good ole' common sense says when a Cat 4 or larger starts bearing down on you, you get out of its way, whether or not the wxmen are saying it will turn. 
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Change in direction in the past three hours (from 8AM-11AM) was 0.5N, 0.4W. This is the first time since yesterday afternoon that the northern motion has won out, although slightly. The last few frames of the IR seem to be following this trend. I think the northerly component will still be winning at 2, unless there is a major shift.
Remember, this was predicted. It is also predicted it will resume a NW or even a WNW track after reentering the ocean north of Cuba. It *is* unnerving though, isn't it?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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adogg76
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Let's see......
I "factor" OUT.....any mainstream meteorological media hype......I factor OUT, any models that can't even account cedibly for a days rainfall, let alone 2,3,5 days out....I walk outside for a couple minutes......let the sun toast my face.....let the humidity seep into my bones.......feel my torn acl in my knee flare up, my torn ligaments in my separated shoulder begin to ACHE......and I can tell with some certainty.....IT IS GONNA RAIN HERE IN CENTRAL FLORIDA!!!!!! And really......If I am huddling in a hallway with my family.....what is the difference between 90 mph and 140 mph......we are still scared and will still deal with the coming trials head on.....as opposed to hiding behind my next 5-day forecast!!!!
I have no meteorological degree.....no special access to radar or satellite....but I am SURE...I have been watching the Weather Channel for long enough to understand what is going on around me!!!!
Sorry for my attitude, but almost EVERYONE with any kind of "certified" knowledge on anything....usually is the most unqualified in my book!!!
Which way did Jeane go last year.....uhhhhh.....ALL WAYS!!!!
Easy, adogg. There is no 100% here, but the biggest indications are that it stays well enough west of the peninsula. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 PM)
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VandyBrad
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Quote:
.....what is the difference between 90 mph and 140 mph......
That you still have a closet to huddle in...
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Brad Shumbera
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adogg76
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Thanks for helping my point Vandy!!
Good Day!!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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The wai-ai-ai-ting is the hardest part~~ Tom Petty
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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IR now shows that the eye is just touching the coastline.
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Brad Shumbera
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VandyBrad
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Anyone else curious as to why the last radar frame out of Cienfuegosa, Cuba was from 2 and a half hours ago?
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Brad Shumbera
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Just looking at the IR, WV and Visibles, it appears the is going to make landfall in Cuba for the 2nd time in less than an hour.
WeatherNLU: I think that what a lot of people are seeing on the WV loops that are causing them to think that this will go more NW/NNW is the fact that the short wave troughs are digging much deeper into the GOM and you CAN see an erosion of the high pressure system just east of Daytona. Clark has talked about this happening, Ed has talked about this happening and so has JK. This was a possibility all along. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's not something we can't totally discount. It was also addressed in the 11AM discussion and some of the models are picking up on this.
I don't see JB's theory of it skirting the coast of Cuba happening right now. Nothing, however, is set in stone, so again...we all need to watch it carefully. It's going to be a squeaker. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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adogg76
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Is "backbuilding"???
That may elicit a smirk or two from the pros...but in recent imagery, He looks as if he is strengthining on the LARGE eastern "half"......possible??
Gotta make sure to remember my camera this time!!
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adogg76
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And are we gonna get a word on this new wave east of the lower antilles??
Been developing all morning......
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jth
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Follow it via Key West Long Range Radar. Easy to see the continued NW motion. Wobbles aren't as apparent. That said, on radar he seems to be hugging the coast moving more WNW trying to saty off land. As if almost alive. 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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I am very glad to have found this site. My brother is with the Sheriff's Dept in Jackson Co, MS, living in Pascagoula only blocks from the Gulf. This is where we grew up but I don't live there now. This site has been very helpful and I was able last night to learn quite a bit. I was able to find some good web pages to send to him.
Last year, with , I went to the NOAA web site and looked directly at all the GOM buoy info, and that is how I found the very large wave height that one buoy experienced south of Dauphin Island. That was a nail-biter. I was so relieved when it passed east of Pascagoula. A direct hit or a hit just west would really be devastating to them. My brother has to stay because of his job, and his job is very risky, and so of course every time one of these heads their way I am concerned.
I know it is too soon to tell, but it does appear more likely that it will pass to the east of the MS/AL state line.
I noticed one post from someone who wanted to know if it would be a good idea to drive down to Pensacola to experience the hurricane. Not a good idea at all. Actually can't believe anyone would want to do something like that. Living through the aftermath of Camille believe me you wouldn't want to be somewhere where there is the potential to end up with no electricity, roads under water or debris, no stores open to buy food, maybe no gas stations open, etc. I will never forget seeing the sections of the Ocean Springs Biloxi bridge each moved several feet up or down, or right or left, of the next one; I was 13 at the time.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Let's see......
I have no meteorological degree.....no special access to radar or satellite....but I am SURE...I have been watching the Weather Channel for long enough to understand what is going on around me!!!!
Sorry for my attitude, but almost EVERYONE with any kind of "certified" knowledge on anything....usually is the most unqualified in my book!!!
TWC won't get you too far..and if people with certified knowledge are the most unqualified in the book and we had no radars or satellites, statistics for the number of weather related deaths would be much heigher than they are today. Mets contribute the most reliable info to this board and many others, their imput should be appreciated.
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Lisa NC
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Loc: North Carolina
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Maybe he is turning a little to take the pathe with least resistances. It appears to be heading where the mountains and hills are the smallest
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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VandyBrad
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Yeah I see the Key West Radar, but my comment was more about wondering why the radar data is no longer coming out of Cuba. Did they loose it maybe?
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Brad Shumbera
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