MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Original Update
Hurricane , weakinging ever so slightly is moving rather quickly over Cuba, and is nearing Havana. The ridge north of Central Florida has held, which keeps the forecast track in check as is.
Jim Williams is doing an audio show tonight over at Hurricane City if you have real player, you can listen in With this link
Click for 8AM - 8PM loops of Cuban Radar
Central Florida will see winds tomorrow, but not quite tropical storm force, while the west coast of Florida will see tropical storm force winds. In fact, tropical storm watches are up along a lot of the west coast just for this reason. The Lower Keys may see hurricane force winds tonight and tomorrow.
Beyond that, the western Florida panhandle and northern Gulf coast -- Apalachicola west toward New Orleans -- is the real focus area, with the most likely path taking it near Pensacola as the landfall point. This would put it and points east in the worst part of the storm. Hurricane watches are now up for most of the aforementioned areas because of . This means everyone in the watch area needs to be prepared for the storm. Landfall is still forecast for sometime on Sunday.
 
I'm looking for good related links to place on the front page; this includes good images, radar, satellite, streaming audio,video, emergency information, etc. Reply and let us know.
Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.
You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.
Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.
Hopefully this will only last a short time.
Event Related Links
Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL...
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Casablanca, Cuba Radar
Dennis
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for
Quikskat Image of
Color Sat of
Floater Satellite (Visible) of with Storm Track Overlays
Cienfuegosa, Cuba Radar - (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of
Webcams, Video, Audio
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam
Suncam.tv's collection of cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
Key West Webcams
New Orleans webcams
Radio Habana, Cuba
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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If you are in South Florida, check this site.
doug
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
If you are in South Florida, check this site.
doug
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
link is bad
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Yeah tell me about it. There is a line of storms headed to Broward Cnty with gusts reported to 60mph in part of Miami-Dade. We are under a Severe Thunderstorm warning.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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what is that big low thats on the floater?
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dearolecleo
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Ellenton, Florida
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Hey everybody..sorry...this is my first time on here trying to communicate so let me know if I screw it up or something. I live in Ellenton, FL. My 83 year old Dad lives in Port Charlotte and survived last year. Any indication that we will have another "Right Turn Clyde" with ?
not really. pretty confident the east central gulf gets it. you guys aren't quite in the green, but you sure aren't in the red. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 08 2005 06:27 PM)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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And if you're in the New Orleans area:
WWLTV has a lot of info - traffic, sandbag and video updates, Parish by Parish info, hotel
NOLA.com has upto the minute tropical newsflashes
'shana
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Check out the cool radar animation from the following link. You can just start to make out the northern eyewall on the Key West short range radar. Looks awesome.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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RJB
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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"UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK."
Does anyone know what they are talking about from the 5pm discussion? They went a little above my expertise.
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John C
Unregistered
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Some Key West web cams...
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LizL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
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I personally have a strange feeing that it will get up towards right turn clyde and clam the upper west coast of florida above tamp area. that would be a awful scenario. but i am just going on a gut feeling.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the wnw/nw wobbles aren't in any way predictable, but best guess is that the center moves back offshore around 9-10 tonight between matanzas and havana. radar imagery makes it seem like the inner core is doing fine... but it's been on coastal lowlands all afternoon. some hill country to cross this evening before it can re-emerge.. probably cat 2/3 area with a pressure up around 965 when it goes back offshore. that concentric eyewall thing looks like it has more or less completed, so i reckon the shot cuba had at wrecking the inner core is past.
the forecast path stays glued to the fl/al border area. for two days the official has been kept there while the models have leaned back and forth around it. only folks who can really call themselves out of the woods are on the florida peninsula, where nothing worse than rainbands will keep it unsettled.
one good note in all this is that seems to be targetting the area of coolest SSTs in the gulf--we may see it inch back up to category 4, but not very likely it will landfall as one. category 3 looks most likely right now.
wave in the east altantic near 30-35w is quite active. isn't mentioning it in the two, but the way things look they won't be able to ignore it for long. i have a feeling this one will be something luis can get krunked over.
if i was inland near the confluence of the ohio and mississippi rivers, i'd get ready for some serious rains. it isn't wholly consistent, but there has been enough model support for stalling/looping/slow, erratic movement of inland around july 13-15 to take heed. inland flooding has been the big killer from tropical systems in the u.s. for the last 30 years or so; has the potential to be both a drought-ender and a major flood event in the midsouth.
HF 2324z08july
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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It is basically saying that the high pressure over Florida is going to point the hurricane in the direction of the Northern Gulf Coast, and that little has changed in the atmosphere to keep it from going in the forecasted direction. But, do not rule out any directional changes until the eye re-emerges from Cuba and has had time to intensify if it is going to. The changes have very little to do with how much rain florida is going to get. The eye of the hurricane is what is tracked and is influenced or not influenced by differing changes in the atmosphere to its north. The higher pressures will influence speed and forward movement of the eye. All of it is subject to greater or lesser pressures.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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What it means is that the models did not initialize (represent) the mid & upper level feature currently over eastern Texas quite to the strength that the observations show. That would suggest that it might have a stronger impact on the storm than the models are predicting...or that the response could be otherwise entirely different, we really don't know yet. It is the big player with regards to the storm, however, and is something being watched very closely by the , NWS offices, as well as many others.
It also states that the ridge has largely remained unchanged during the day -- changes may be coming, but they are slow in doing so. This isn't any different than the forecasts, however.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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New Orleans webcams
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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so what u are saying is that the front from texas is stronger? tom terry on wftv here said it wont be a strong front. im not counting us out unitl it passes tampa. 
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Here is one right on Duval Street, the others did not open for me http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/live-duval-cam.htm
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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stupid question clark, but any idea when we will know something more significant
about the texas thing and its relationship to good ole ?
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Moderators, et al...
hasn't the time come to quit the "gut feeling" posts and concentrate on facts?
Just throwing out a thought.
Ed G
Clermont, Fl
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the hurricane warning in the lower keys may be downgraded later this evening.. don't think they'll see any sustained hurricane winds (maybe some gusts close to hurricane force, though). i'm not sure how much longer this wnw jog will take it, but it seems to be going wide enough of the keys that they'll escape serious conditions.
HF 2337z08july
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