Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
What it means is that the models did not initialize (represent) the mid & upper level feature currently over eastern Texas quite to the strength that the observations show. That would suggest that it might have a stronger impact on the storm than the models are predicting...or that the response could be otherwise entirely different, we really don't know yet. It is the big player with regards to the storm, however, and is something being watched very closely by the , NWS offices, as well as many others.
It also states that the ridge has largely remained unchanged during the day -- changes may be coming, but they are slow in doing so. This isn't any different than the forecasts, however.
Clark, thx for the explanation. Was this the situation you've been refering to since midnight last nite? That the models were underestimating the strength of the Upper Trof dropping into the western Gulf? I didn't understand the discussion when the commentator said that this would maintain a "deep southeasterly flow over the eastern gulf". In my mind, it would erode the ridge more than the models anticipate and cause more of a northward motion. Am I correct in that logic?
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RJB
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Dennis seems to be holding together quite well over Cuba, with the ye still quite discernable on the radar imagery, but not so evident on the satellite imagery. Loks like he will emnerge into the GOM as a Cat 3 - a little stronger than i anticpated earlier. Looks like most of the Florida west coast is gonna at least see Tropical Storm force gusts, if not sustained. The Keys, especially Key West, look set to just miss out on sustained hurricane winds, but expect plenty of Hurricane force gusts here. The real problem will be Sunday, as approaches land. Much of the FL big bend and panhandle look set to get swamped by really quite large waves, combined with onshore flows and storm surges. If moves inland east of Mobile, AL, then the bay will be out of the woods really. However, if he moves in to the west of Mobile, then Mobile Bay will certainly see a huge rise in water level, and will see some pretty severe flooding.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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To answer three questions in the thread...
We will know more tomorrow about the evolution of the flow pattern as it relates to , both with the ridge and the trough.
It is not necessarily a cold front passing through Texas, but is an upper-level feature.
The stronger trough was alluded to last night, yes. It could dive south, it could move east, or it could move southeast. All have different results towards the track, whether taking the storm north, north-northwest, or northwest (not in any order) to landfall. It'd probably erode the ridge more than the models indicate, but you also have to keep in mind the possibility that the ridge ends up being stronger than the models indicate. That may not be the case, but is always a possibility until proven otherwise.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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The discussion mentioned that if this dips down in the gulf as expected, the winds around it will maintain or even enhance the SE flow and keep on the NW track.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I think we are are all hoping the ridge over Florida stays in place long enough to allow to pass us because the -10c in LA that has developed could throw in a right hand turn if it doesn't. Close Clark?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well, you're thinking sort of right. the trough is deeper than thought and digging deeper.. when a trough digs somewhere whatever ridging is ahead will amplify some in response. the ridge over florida is overall weakening, but with the trough digging ahead of it, it should maintain for a while longer and turn the storm along its periphery. these influences are relative to the effect the storm is having on both of them... everything is really playing off of everything else. if that makes any sense...
clark will probably pad what i have to say, 'cause his knowledge runs much deeper than mine. hope i don't correcting... that's always humbling.
HF 2349z08july
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dearolecleo
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Ellenton, Florida
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Thanks..I feel alot better
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Very Lucky West Floridian
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Is there any chance that the upper-level system over texas that's going to dip down weaken the ridge enough to make it move towards the NE?
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Derek Sutherland
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
well, you're thinking sort of right. the trough is deeper than thought and digging deeper.. when a trough digs somewhere whatever ridging is ahead will amplify some in response. the ridge over florida is overall weakening, but with the trough digging ahead of it, it should maintain for a while longer and turn the storm along its periphery. these influences are relative to the effect the storm is having on both of them... everything is really playing off of everything else. if that makes any sense...
clark will probably pad what i have to say, 'cause his knowledge runs much deeper than mine. hope i don't correcting... that's always humbling.
HF 2349z08july
Thanks for the explanation. I'm also thinking the orientation of the trough has something to do with the directional winds ahead of it. Whether its negatively tilted, neutral, or positively tilted would influence whether the storm moves NW, N, or NE, correct?
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RJB
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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That big bloom of storms coming across the state is amazing to watch on this link ....
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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While I was looking at the link above, I noticed that wave east of the lesser antilles, you know, where started out.. haha. This is one heck of a start to a season. 
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Derek Sutherland
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Experimental Map Link using data from flhurricane http://www.lets-go-dancing.com/hurricane.php?n=4&y=2005
This is from Ken Robinson, I'm not going to link it anywhere else for now since it is unfinished, but still it's useful enough to mention. Mainly because if you click the "Satellite" mode in the top right you can see visually sat photos of the area and see the landscape that passed over. I can only imagine now what happened in some of those areas. A lot is sparse, thankfuly.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Map
Cindy
Ivan
Frances
Jeanne
Charley
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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Nice work!
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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That is good stuff right there! Thanks for the link MikeC!!!!!
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Wow - great job!
Karen
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Just got home from work and am sucking on a brewskie. I have not been on since 06:00 this morning. Can the experts give me the quick on their projected path. My 84 yr old mom is in Plant City in a double-wide and it's a 70+ mile drive on death highway (Interstate 4) for me to pick her up and bring her back to Orlando.
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mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I like the site on the web that gives real time wind speeds. They are shown in MPH and what direction they are coming from. Just click on the squares that appear on the map to zoom in.
iwindsurf.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
one good note in all this is that seems to be targetting the area of coolest SSTs in the gulf--we may see it inch back up to category 4, but not very likely it will landfall as one. category 3 looks most likely right now.
HF 2324z08july
Do the warmer waters have any impact on the path? This morning I saw that the FL coast and TX coast had the warmest SST, but now it has changed to one large spot south of LA. I was wondering if hurricanes would tend to follow the warm water, but it sounds like the upper atmosphere is the key to steering the hurricane?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Littlebit
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
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I'm in Plant City and we're supposed to experience feeder bands, but nothing really worse than the afternoon thuderstorms we normally see. Just finishing up one storm and it wasn't anything out of the ordinary, pounding rain and wind gusts. As long as a tornado doesn't come through, I believe your mom should be ok.
Donna
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