TDW
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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Quote:
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Agree...that was just a few frames worth of a westward jog. It is back to NW again. Should regain some strength. We have a wind advisory here tomorrow but it shouldn't be too bad. If anyone is interested, I have a home weather station with an anemometer on the roof (located in Brevard County - EC FL). Here is the link...(http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html)
I just got my hurricane shutter mounting changed to panelmates from the lead anchors - learned my lesson last year. This will cut my time in half to put up the panels and they are MUCH stronger. I had several lead anchors pull out last year.
Tapcons. Not likely to get pulled out. 
I've been using the plylox - no drilling requried.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I think it's interesting that Dr. Lyons said "it is staying over Cuba longer...maybe longer than we had anticipated" and than pointed out the westward movement. The reason I say this is because obviously is struggling right now and I wonder what affect this will have on him as he begins to exit the island. Will it give the trough to the west more time to dig down? Will the high over EC of Florida erode further west? Will try to find a more favorable environment to recompose himself? If I remember correctly, Dr. Lyons also said that the eye was almost completely gone...so what will happen when re-emerges off land?
So many questions...so little time for answers.
BTW..here in Lakeland, we got so much rain our pool overflowed. We got at least 2" easily...my husband had to pump out the water. Unbelievable. That all happened within an hour's time, too.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As the 5 p.m disco had mentioned, a 10 C cold pool had developed over LA. This would in turn deepen the ULL dropping down, and bring about the presence of a deep SEasterly steering flow. This i believe is being reflected in some models. The nighttime presistent westward movement maybe has something to do with problems with adibiatic heating of the 850 temperatures, which would affect the Upper level features differently; that's my take.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sat Jul 09 2005 12:40 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm no mod. but have been repremanded for quoting, especially during times of increased bandwidth. So please try and avoid quoting other's. Thanks a bunch.
keith
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
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Colleen I felt the same effects up here in Port Richey was raining buckets and lightning was incredable
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Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Ummmm.... Big Red, could you say that in English? What does that mean? Thanks! 
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think i just saw a G4 gulf stream jet fly into PCB from offshore (SE) and turn and head towards LA (WSW) from Panama City at (7:29cdt) i had a pair of binoculars and was able to see the tail, and aslo could tell that there appeared to be a NOAA sign on the side of the jet....appeared to come down in alt. when got close to coast and then on the turn i heard the engines go to full power....i also took a digital picture.... will see if it got anything.... i am checking flight plane for NOAA right now.... clear skies and calm winds here in PCB.....nice sunset too!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Long time lurker, first time poster....
18z and are certainly intriguing. Keeping in mind the models daytime-west, nightime-east pattern, these tracks bringing slightly closer to Florida's WC and are definitely something to keep an eye on.
Yeah, I took a look at the 18Z and it has the storm running up pretty close to longboat key and then turning NW to Destin. The 18Z has swung pretty far east too from its earlier runs, taking the storm no farther west than 85W until it turns sharply NW just before Cape San Blas & hits Destin. That's a little too close for my comfort sitting here on the GOM north of Tampa. I wouldn't be so worried, but these two models are some of the best and both shifted to the east from their 00Z and 12Z runs. Maybe Clark is right?
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RJB
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I made a long loop 8AM-8PM animation of that cuban radar site. You can find the image
Here
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just check hrd flight plans for NOAA and nothing looks or shows anything too close to PCB, but i am sure it wasn't a private jet!!! Maybe the "brass from " leaving then.... oh well
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As they say "Mackerel sky and mare's tails make lofty ships carry low sails."
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Are you referring to my post or big red's post?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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FireAng85, I'm no expert, but here's my best explanation. The latest runs of two of the many computer models (GFS and ), have shifted the track of a bit closer to the west peninsula (still with Panhandle landfall, but these tracks bring tropical storm force winds to the coast).
Here is the : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
And the http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...ation</a>
Click on the "FWD" button on the right hand side.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sat Jul 09 2005 12:50 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah Colleen, I hope Cuba tears up... the longer he stays on the island the weaker he'll get, and hopefully he won't regain his former self...... after passing over Fl Andrew was never able to get back like he was when he first went inland.. I'd sure as heck like to see him no greater than a Cat 2 when he impact the Gulf Coast.. one can only hope...
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Visible still shows eye fairly well. It is farther west than the forecast and looks to hit Havana directly. It will exit Cuba farther west than all the model projections except for the UKMET
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Big Red's post. I am no met, most of the time I can get a jist of what you guys are talking about, but his last post was completely greek! :?:
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Are these models out of date already? Ii previously posted that the models have a tough time with land masses
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The infared SAT really shows warming cloud tops within the and convection has waned in the northwest semi-circle. The eye appears to have become cloud filled. All are signs of a significant weakening trend - but by midnite it may reach open water again.
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RJB
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Holy Moly! Those are way too close for comfort! Thanks for sharing...... what do you guys make of it???
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah I agree and was going to comment on the same thing... sure looks to be aiming at Havana, unless he can pull some good NW or NNW jogs ... reviewing the long radar Key radar he loops he appears to be moving somewhere in between WNW and NW... this is a cool radar presentation, here's the link...
click on Loop Long Range, takes a few minutes to load
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.html
sorry, I forgot to attach the link 
Edited by Frank P (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:05 AM)
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