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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Just for Kicks the 12Z NOGAPS
      #4130 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:29 PM

Came in and takes him north of the Yucatan, he does a little dance, loop-the-loop, then heads NE towards the Big Bend as he Strengthens! Cheers!! Stee H.

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: New user
      #4131 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:36 PM

I am a newly registered user, but have been an observer here for the past couple of years. Does anyone remeber Donna? And do any of you thing that Izzy could follow the same possible track?

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Brett
Unregistered




I dunno
      #4132 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:37 PM

It's so hard to watch this thing and try to figure the direction its taking. Seemed to me to be moving more westerly today, but now I see it heading more north, with the trough approacing from the west, in this view. Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html



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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Thanks Jason for the vortex info
      #4133 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:37 PM

That is a real hurricane data from recon and from now on the proccess of growing has begun.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
you know..
      #4134 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM

you know you're desperate to see the hurricane coming your way when every little jog in your direction has you betting it's a new course. well.. much as i'd like to think i have a good bit of this storm figure out (comparatively).. little things keep happening a little different than i expect. for one, after going mostly nnw yesterday, it is going mostly wnw today. for two, the intensity right now is at marginal hurricane.. no rapid intensification.
well, right now im just going to stick with earlier hypotheses and not bother trying to calibrate what is already a crude enough forecast.
jason the met from pc, i have some questions. im fairly familiar with the global models, and mostly use them for predicting where systems will form, not how they will behave once they do. and i understand about the GFDL being a more localized, attuned tropical model. however, curious to know what to make of the NHC model suite. well, there are only about four that i bother accessing, but the BAMD, BAMM, A98e.. some climo model i think... that bunch.. what should i make of them? im not sure what beta advection (besides it being some thermodynamic energy transfer thing) is, or what the innate characteristics of any of the models are, but as far as knowing when the NHC suite is money and when it isnt.. how should i interpret this stuff?
anyhow.. as this system goes further west and less to the north, the thought that those SW into mexico global runs are seeing the future keeps recurring. the other thought i keep having is that this system could still be around a week from now.
asides: watch off the east coast for a hybrid storm. most of the globals have that upper system bastardi has been calling to cut off all week sending a surface reflection back to the mid atlantic.
central atlantic has an upper trough with a surface reflection.. doubt that will do anything.
still waves coming across, but environment out there is bad and shouldnt improve a whole lot.. season might be over for the southeast atlantic.
one other thing: eastpac system is trying to develop south of mexico. if it deepens, could have upstream consequences for isidore.
HF 2031z19september


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
LOL...
      #4135 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM

Rick is going to have to check his shorts if he clicks on that link, that or his desk is going to mysteriously levitate a few inches

Come clean with me andytom. Admit you want some of that tropical action. You're dying to see a northerly component so you get a shot, huh?

I admited it 2 years ago and didn't get too much heat over it. That's how Frank P and I got to be hurricane friends. He would warn against any storms - so finally I got him to open up his can of hurricane stories and I really gained a lot of respect for what he's experienced first hand.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: you know..
      #4136 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:41 PM

They just upgraded to hurricane. And I believe them when they say a 3 in GOM.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: you know../We have a cane...
      #4137 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:42 PM

Isidore now officially a Hurricane per new advisories...

HF, the "other" suite of tropical models is fairly primitive, at best...I'm gonna get some info and will post again in a sec...


--------------------
Jason Kelley


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Model info...
      #4139 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:55 PM

HF,

Read over this first (if you haven't already) and from there I'll clarify...get the background info in first...

NHC Page on Models...

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Jason Kelley


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: LOL...
      #4140 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:56 PM

ain't no way ... i ve lived here all my life (+43 yrs) and seen enough of em. my boat is still out of the water from last weekend. i take precautions cause i know what they can do. years back my wife said she wanted one here cause she had never been through one. after a week with no power she said she never wanted to go through another one.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: LOL...
      #4144 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:04 PM

new forum people


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: I dunno
      #4186 - Thu Sep 19 2002 07:34 PM

Watching this loop is somewhat disturbing. If you straight line from those frames it ends up about 80 miles east of the NHC forecast track -- which is very close to FL...

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