Brett
Unregistered
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This is so interesting to me. I just do not recall a storm where, three days into the forecast, the simply has no clue where it might head if it stalls out, as predicted. What makes it worse, is that this one has the potential to be a very strong and large hurricane. Can anyone else recall a Category 2-4 hurricane sitting in the southeastern gulf, spinning, with no steering currents? I mean, this could be a very scary event.
What concerns me the most is the few models that take it into the florida peninsula after stalling. If it does get licked up and starts moving north or east rapidly after stalling, people in florida will have so much less time to prepare than if it heads due north or nw. its just gonna be that much closer to florida to start, if it stalls as predicted. I don't know. I might be overreacting, but no one here is taking this seriously...and i hope to god that wherever it goes, it doesn't take anyone by surprise, because they have been lead to believe they were "out of the woods". i for one am staying tuned.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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ok i think i can see a move looks more to the west
is this a good sdign for Florida being missed?
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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NEW AVN IS OUT, SHOWS AGAIN TURN TO SW BEHIND THE TROUGH. AVN IS A PRETTY GOOD MODEL AND SHOULDNT BE IGNORED, BUT IM NOT BETTING ON THIS YET THOUGH I WOULD TAKE THIS MODEL OVER THE ,UKMET,GGEM ANY DAY. THOUGH IS PRETTY GOOD AT TIME TOO. SCOTTSVB
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I agree. I'm watching this one closely until it's completely gone. As the old saying goes, "It ain't over until the fat lady (or man in this case) sings. I'm registered, but i'm at work and can't remember my password  I get these senior moments from time to time.
Kandi 
Deltona, FL
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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If Izzy is heading due N or NNW when passing by the Florida west coast, evacuations would probably not be ordered for those areas. Possibly would be only for the lowest lying areas. This would depend on the confidence in the forecast, and forward speed, mong other things. Even at 100 miles or so offshore, it would take some time for an Izzy to turn around if he was moving at 15/20mph. During Elena in 1985, comparable in size to Izzy, I was driving around in some horrible weather while Elena was heading N. When she stopped and started moving E, evacuations were ordered and completed before she got within 75 miles or so. Can you turn your car to the right once you are in the middle of the intersection? Only if you are moving pretty slow.
Hope the analogy helps. Incidentally, you may want to look up Elena accounts on the web. Izzy probably will be a very similar storm.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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NOGAPS AND OTHER MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THIS, MISSING THE TROUGH HEADING W. IS MY GUT FORCASTING CALL OF A TAMPICO MID WEEK COMING TRUE? ANYWAYS, ISADORE IS A HURRICANE WHEN THE RECON GETS IN THERE. MY FORCAST REMAINS SIMPLE. SHE WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL WNW TRACK WITH WOBBLES NW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BEING NEAR 23N AND 85 W NOW IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT SOME MODEL PICK UP THE SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AND PUSH IT NNE INTO W FLORIDA OR NEAR THE PANHANDLE. OTHERS TAKE HER W OR EVEN WSW ARE THE YUCITAN OF MEXICO NEAR 72 HOURS. MY 8-10 DAY OUT PREDICTION OF A MIAMI TO N OF TAMPA IS STILL THERE IN JUST WATCH HER. BUT AFTER I SAW THE TROUGH WONT FULLY GET HER, I BACKED OFF THAT AND SAID IN HERE THAT SHE WILL PROBABLY THEN MISS THE TROUGH AND HEAD LIKE THE AVN AND MOVE W OR SW AS SHE WILL BE VERY STRONG, REMEMBER MITCH HOW HE GOT SO STONG HE BACKED SW INTO HODURAS, THIS MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN THOUGH I DOUBT HIT THE YUCITAN, AFTER THAT IT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE SW GULF AND TURN NW TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE MID NEXT WEEK. AGAIN THIS IS MY 7 DAY FORCAST AGAIN. IVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE MONEY AGAIN IN THESE 72 HOUR FORCASTS AND CANT DISAGREE TO MYSELF ON WHY IT WONT BE NEAR 23.5 AND 84.5 LATE SATURDAY MOVING LITTLE, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MISS THE SYSTEM BUT ON A OUTSIDE NOTE IF THE NEXT SURGE COMES DOWN FAST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IT COULD PULL THE SYSTEM N AND NE TOWARDS THE W FLORIDA COAST OR PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRETTY MUCH FOLKS FIRST 6O HOURS IS A 90% BET. AFTER THAT I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE AVN. THOUGH I DONT RULE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH GRABBING THIS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THIS OFF TO THE NNE. THIS IS A 30% PUSH OFF. ILL GIVE A NEW FORCAST AGAIN LATER TOMORROW. SCOTTSVB HURRICANEUPDATECENTER
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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IMHO, a big thing to watch will be if Isidore passes to the East/West/or right over the Isle of Youth. A pass on the East side is going to make it easier for a Florida landfall. Right over will probably have it stalling in the middle of the GOM. to the west will probably cause it to kick west towards the Yucatan. Not a very wide area; but I think big enough to make the difference in where he will go.
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Jim
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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i am not discounting the avn but...it seems to me that it doesn't have the correct intensity with izzy from the start. would this mean that the accuracy of the model would be in question?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Brett, it happens all the time. This one is more difficult than most, not as difficult than some. If you actually carefully track the course for each storm, you'll see that many end up on a completely different track than initially forecast. is masterful at gradually changing the track until it matches up closely with what ends up happening. The truth is that we are only decent at guess the next 24-48 hours. After that, minor influences can make major differences in storm direction. Any forecast over 48 hours is pure speculation. That's what makes this so interesting. 
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
What do you think Scott?
I thought I heard if the storm takes Youth on the East side then
the Keys are in a better position to be struck?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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IF IT DOES GO EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ON NOT THE FIRST TROUGH , BUT THE 2ND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SIDE NOTE ON THE AVN STRENGTH. I IGNORE THE STRENGTH IT SHOWS IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, THOUGH GENERALLY A VERY STRONG SYSTEM CREATES A BETTER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WILL STEER IT W OR EVEN WSW. (MITCH,ANDREW,ETC)SCOTTSVB
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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one more thing. i have also heard that when izzy gets strong he could blast right through the ridging that is causing these models to run west. is this true?
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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i thought strong storms liked to go poleward
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Like THAT one helps lol
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_climo.html
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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Interesting Test from Miami
HLSMIA
FLZ067-068-071>075-191345-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
MAINLAND MONROE...MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...PALM
BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES.
...TEST TEST TEST...PLEASE IGNORE...TEST...TEST...TEST...
...LOCATION MOVEMENT INTENSITY AND TREND...
TEST...TEST...TEST...
...LOCAL WIND IMPACT...
THIS IS A TEST. PS.
...LOCAL SURGE IMPACT...
THIS IS A TEST. PS.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Thats been up awhile. I think they may issue t/s warning or watches for the keys later. i saw something about that in a discussion but can't rember where.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Mark....I saw that, too and wondered about it. Why the heck would they do a "test statement" on Isidore? Is that a previously scheduled test that just happened to coincidentally have a TS/Hurricane sitting out there or are they preparing? 
Colleen-----> Scratches Head
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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But wouldn't the NWS in Key West be doing those test statements if they were going to be affected? I didn't think Miami NWS issued those statements for the Keys. Hm.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well another day and of coarse not much change as to where this will go when it gets to gulf with so many possibilities. AVN moves it west "very slowly" as a strong hurricane...CMC bombs it west of FL and moves slowly...UKMET moves it towards FL...GFDL moves it towards north central gulf. One thing that has caught my attention other than are soon to be hurricane is the trough pulling out from west. Water Vapor looks fairly impressive and whether this comes along and picks it up is in question. Saw the same Mark Miami testing Hurricane statement. Probably because theres a possibility of watches to their south in the keys. But in any case I think from 90 and east will be prime targets for this major cane.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If you notice the time that it was issued, it was earlier this morning when the models,at that time, were pointing towards Florida. In other words, I think it is old news now. With the more westerly track since then, I would suspect that message to be out-dated at this point. That doesn't mean that Miami is in the clear,though.
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