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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 280
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: feeder bands [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40729 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:48 AM

The action moving to north east over Florida might be moving a liittle to quickly for Super Cell developement. Big thunder blasters for sure......Weatherchef

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 280
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: feeder bands [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #40732 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:50 AM

I meant to say north west over Florida...Sorry......Weatherchef

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: feeder bands [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #40733 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:51 AM

here's the eye peaking out

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/134.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis's Motion [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #40736 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:53 AM

After a slow west drift this morning, Dennis now appears to be moving N-NW...I'm wondering if we're seeing a stair-step motion or a true change in direction from NW to N-NW?

--------------------
RJB


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Dennis's Motion [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40737 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:59 AM

nasty squall line fixing to come through here in PCB from east...lots of thunder... moving pretty fast too.... got the cam ready

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: models and probabilities [Re: adogg76]
      #40739 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:02 PM

Interesting topic in the NHC 11:00 Advisory:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE Dennis TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

The funny think about that is that at 11:00am, Dr. Steve Lyons said that the trough and the ridge are causing a squeeze on Dennis...with the HP ridge building back in and the trough digging deeper, resulting in Dennis being the monkey in the middle. He did not believe that the environment further north in the Gulf were conducive to much more intensification because of this "squeeze play".
So, maybe the jogs to the north we are seeing is because the models didn't pick up on the strength of the trough (which is what I have said many times and got berated for! ) and it will trek a bit further east. That being said, I would definitely not expect any kind of dramatic turn to the right with Dennis. The only thing that will happen, perhaps, is to make the weather here a little worse than it's already forecasted to be.
Speaking of our weather: we had some squalls last night, mostly rain, but at about 9:00am, the winds had really picked up here and they woke me up! We've had a lull the last couple of hours, but from looking at the radar, I expect that to change shortly.
So far, so good. I just pray for the people who will be taking the brunt of this hurricane that it will not reintensify too much. Also want you to know that our family has you in its thoughts and prayers.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
the fun never stops [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40740 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:03 PM

98L is up on the wave halfway btw africa and the antilles. the NRL vis shows a near-circular surface low with convection to the west, easterly shear keeping it on that side. it's near 10.5/37.5. shear and SSTs just above threshold should keep it's strengthening rate slow, but its development during the next 3 days is looking more likely.
HF 1703z09july


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: the fun never stops [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40741 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:12 PM

Does this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html make you think it's intensifying?

Hunkering down in Gulf Breeze....

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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: the fun never stops [Re: susieq]
      #40744 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:19 PM

IMHO only,

the low and trough appear to be splattering by the outflow of Dennis and it will go further west than pensacola as it is winning the squeeze play. biloxi look out


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cjgsav
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: the fun never stops [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40745 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:21 PM

Could you please tell me where you find images or data on the wave you metioned in your post?

Thank you...


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2268
Loc: Melbourne, FL
New Main Page Article [Re: cjgsav]
      #40746 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:28 PM

Mike has started a new article - time to move your new posts to the new article.
Cheers,
ED


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: New Main Page Article [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #40747 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:33 PM

Where? I don't see it.

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: models and probabilities [Re: adogg76]
      #40755 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:54 PM

Quote:

... if someone asks if they should be driving down 95 set for O-town with all the family in tow.......I say.....wait for the Tornado Watch to expire.....




Why not come down I-95 and get through the nasty weather faster than staying in NC.?

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
2808'56"N; 8035'11"W


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