VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Guess the PCB area forecast explains why he haven't heard much from Jason lately... he must be one busy individual...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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So...according to the predictions from the 11am discussion, will go more north than west (ratio of 1 to 2/3). Much, much relieved. It is on a true NW course the last so many hours, which would bring it right into Pascagoula, but if it curves more northward at all, even just a bit, then there shouldn't be any huge concern for MS Gulf Coast.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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with regards to strike probability, you need to look at the second column which is between 8am and 8pm Sunday..landfall...that shows Mobile as the higest probability. Don't rule out MS yet
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This particular line of discussion stops NOW! In tornado alley all traffic does not come to a complete standstill simply because a Tornado Watch has been issued. There is absolutely nothing wrong with traveling down I-95 to Melbourne (or even over to Orlando) today. Leave it at that.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looking at the latest visible SAT - is definitely getting better organized - eye still obscured by clouds though, but it's wrapping good convection around the center
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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RJB
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 091525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/14:59:30Z
B. 24 deg 42 min N
083 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2812 m
D. 60 kt
E. 291 deg 005 nm
F. 040 deg 064 kt
G. 299 deg 013 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 13 C/ 3047 m
J. 13 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1404A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NW QUAD 14:56:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP _15_ C _294_ / 9__ NM FROM FL CNTR
pressure down one mb
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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Sooooooo......
When can we look forward to some data/info on this next wave in eastern Carib??
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
with regards to strike probability, you need to look at the second column which is between 8am and 8pm Sunday..landfall...that shows Mobile as the higest probability. Don't rule out MS yet
Oooh - ouch for Mobile if this is true.
Even a Mobile hit would not worry me nearly as much as anything to the west of Pascagoula...a hit right on Mobile Bay would mainly affect Gulf Shores and Foley area. There would be a lot of wind, but for Pascagoula the winds would be blowing offshore and subsequently to the east. The water is much more of an issue than wind for places like Ocean Springs, Gautier, Pascagoula, Moss Point, Mobile, and the strength is so localized around the center of the storm that it really makes a huge difference where the eye hits.
This is the thing that really annoys me about the TV predictions and the things said on . Of course the storm is large and its effects will be felt over a large area. But only a very small area, just to the right of the eye at landfall, is in extreme serious danger (broadly speaking). To the people on the Gulf Coast, that is really the thing that they need to know, the thing that is going to make the huge difference. Are they going to be in that small area? Because if not, usually they can ride out the storm, even if they have some minor flooding. But Pascagoula is surrounded by water; a large part of Jackson Co is estuary. Flooding would be the main concern, especially with the forecast that will probably not strengthen above CAT 3. So the difference between an eyewall landing to the east, and to the west, is like night and day. Even if the eyewall came over the MS/AL border say by Grand Bay, Pascagoula would get a lot of wind, but that would not be nearly as devastating as an eyewall landing ten miles to the west.
Well, at least, the time of landfall seems like it will coincide with low tide.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM)
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 53
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Ummmm......
Does anyone recall how many Tornadoes were spawned as and Jeane exited the CFla are???
Just curious...... 
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Anyone find this useful?
I'm polishing it up a bit more but it works and is auto updated with tracks
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s4-2004s9-2004s3
That is too cool. Yes, it is useful. How are you automating this...or are you?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Thanks! At this point, I wouldn't discourage anyone from driving to the Tampa Bay area either.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just talked to my folks...headed to jacksonville, FL
I-10 from just west of tally to the 1-75 exit is bumper to bumper... once past it (east side of 1-75) on i-10, traffic is flowing smoothly.... they said most eastboud traffic on i-10 is fire trucks w/generators and power trucks heading west....say up to a 100 or so passed so far....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Ummmm......
Does anyone recall how many Tornadoes were spawned as and Jeane exited the CFla are???
Just curious......
None significant as I recall.
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Michael
PWS
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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Am i a wishcaster if I say.....there is a strong feeder band approaching Tampa Bay right now!!!
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Gainesville checking in. First feeder band is finally reaching us. Winds picked up dramatically in the last 2 minutes and it got eerily dark outside. I wouldn't be surprised if we got some strong rain very soon... as a matter of fact it's starting now.
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Brad Shumbera
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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yea...tornadoes are generally insignificant events........
WOW!!!!!
Stop the one line posting and put meaning in the posts
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:39 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Am i a wishcaster if I say.....there is a strong feeder band approaching Tampa Bay right now!!!
In a word? Yes. No stronger than a normal, summer t-storm. I'm going to have a nap now.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:41 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Knock it off Adogg - that is not relevant. I'm in Melbourne today and the weather is fine here. Lives don't come to a halt when a storm is 600 milrs away. A tornado can occur on any given afternoon in Florida. Back to , he's wrapping some strong convection back into his center, and I agree with a previous poster that the astern part of the eyewall is obsured. He's still heading slowly NW but hopefully won't stall, since that would allow the ULL to influence it before it has passed north of the Fl penisula. Feel bad for those in the path; certainly pensecola doesn't need another hit. Maybe it will weaken before landfall since the ridging won't be as stong to the north. When's the next blog due Ed? Inquiring minds want to know!!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well here in Tampa we only recieved 1 quick rain band... but it was nothing, Currently the sun has been out for a couple hours through the high clouds. We here in the Tampa Bay area will see the weather go downhill later this afternoon as gets pushed from the upper low moving NE ahead of the trough over the NW Gulf. I wouldnt be surprised to see him tomorrow jog even NNE before landfall but generally move N tonight. Landfall still near Panama city give or take 50 miles.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I see on the visible SAT that sunshine has broken out over central FL - not a good thing since this extra heating combined with the tropical juice may lead to some supercell Tstorms this afternoon..I wouldn't be surprised to see some tornadic activity from some of the bands today given the extra heating of the atmosphere
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RJB
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