willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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I'm not trying to, i just think that the whole line of following the models to a "T" is problematic. Hurricanes do weird stuff. All the guidance and models in the world can't predict some of the things hurricanes do.. remember 1985 i think? elana? It looped back at us and then went away again... (if i remember right, i was like 10-12 years old at the time)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Yeah I have a degree in Meteorology. I nailed 14 of the storms last year to within 50 miles for 3 days out or more. I wish though i can nail the winter storm snowfalls...lol that would be great.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 09 2005 10:36 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Hey Colleen,, well they are all saying Mobile - Panama City beach. I dont see anything more then that. Currently I have the Panama City 1 still cause of the shape of the ridge. Also notice the impulse dropping through Tenn right now.
I wouldnt be surprised if just before landfall up there a NNE jog happens. Also shocked if it does tomorrow.......
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Hell to pay if this thing comes within 50 miles of the coast.All of these tampa stations were "it's not coming near us" attitudes could end up in deaths. We'll see, let's all pray it keeps on it's current track and doesn't hit the west coast of florida, or comes up it. That would be a horrible scenerio raking the whole coast line. Fox 13 met's have all but said "just don't go boating and it'll be nonsquential weather event for the viewing area's.
From the 1 AM EDT Advisory. edited...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
That's basically 1 degree, lat. or long., on the Hurricane force winds right now.
And, nearly 3 degrees, lat. or long.,on the Tropical Storm force winds.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Hank,
Nice attempt at Florida Engrish!
Seriously: Any guidance on this one?
that's my preferred native tongue. guidance: same as before. walton/bay counties sun afternoon cat 3. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jul 09 2005 02:34 AM)
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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On the Key west radar the center seems to reforming eye without rain. and on sat. cloud tops are cooling. doesn't seem to be taking much time to start strenghening again will be interesting to see where decides to go and when
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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pressure is dropping down 1 mb to 973mb Fl windts 71kts. still think winds down pressure up at the 3 am advisory due to a longer than expected interaction with cuba.
Edited by hurricane_run (Sat Jul 09 2005 02:39 AM)
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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yep back on the build
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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also looks nearly stationary
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Have a look at the 06Z models on this site http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05070905
scroll down - the upper one is earlier - 00Z.
If I am reading this right (and I am VERY much the amateur) the models shift landfall back to the west - Gulf Port to Pensacola, hitting in 48 hours and at a much weaker 71 kts.
Thoughts?
--------------------
Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
Edited by ohioaninmiss (Sat Jul 09 2005 02:41 AM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Still moving NW, probably just slightly more N than W. Earlier today I could sort of make out the edge of the ridge. Looked like a west Panhandle hit to me, and that's what I'm sticking to. Seems that SoFla may be good after all 
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Check the Surf
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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yeah it is just drifting to the NW. Not good gives it more time to get reorganized.
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willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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yeah the north jog probably was just that, appears to be back on course. It still wobbled while over cuba pushing it's path more west. Whether it corrects itself and starts going NNW then west coast of central florida is good.. much to the relief of the weather stations :P
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, that's definitely new. ships is spinning it down slowly from here. lots of the 00Z runs are in, though... they do nothing of the sort. still i'd like to know why it's killing off (something completely new). of course next time they run it, it might be back to the same old cat 3 hit.
HF 0747z09july
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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3 am out 100mph 973mb nw at 14 mph the advisory still says it will re-strengthen to a Cat 3. hmmm??
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Have a look at the 06Z models on this site http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05070905
scroll down - the upper one is earlier - 00Z.
If I am reading this right (and I am VERY much the amateur) the models shift landfall back to the west - Gulf Port to Pensacola, hitting in 48 hours and at a much weaker 71 kts.
Thoughts?
The most northern position, BAMD, 31.3N 88.4W is near the MS/AL state line due East of Hattiesburg. That would be around 70 miles inland.
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 53
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For those of us who have felt the ground shake....and man, does that wind sound like people screaming!!!!!
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18625065.900
seismologists study hurricanes effects on the Earth's crust
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
3 am out 100mph 973mb nw at 14 mph
100mph! My calculator must be broken.
I saw 71kts on Vortex.
So much for the SHIP model intensity.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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mine is to. 71 kts is 83mph and 90% of that is 73mph not even a hurricane!!
that is very interesting
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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they must be going by pressure because 970 mb = about 104 mph
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