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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #40518 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:02 AM

From the models I ran at 9/06Z the are varying from 70 -88 kts at 10/18Z

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
100mph [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40519 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:02 AM

There are using the VAD at Key West NWS.
Showing maximum of 78kts at 300 ft at 0652Z.
My guess.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40520 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:03 AM

maybe I'm just tired. going to bed soon (maybe)




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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 100mph [Re: danielw]
      #40521 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:04 AM

oops at key west. but still that was at 0652Z and it representaion on sat is not that good

Edited by hurricane_run (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:08 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 100mph [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40522 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:08 AM

Base Velocity showing gate-to-gate of -123 and +122kts

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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: danielw]
      #40523 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:11 AM

Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.

I always view these kinds of articles with a great deal of skepticism.

-- oops, this was in reply to adogg76, not daniel!

--------------------
Marie

Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!

Edited by ohioaninmiss (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:16 AM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: adogg76]
      #40524 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 AM

back in the 60's. The Navy used to track and try to pinpoint hurricans using seismic activity. it was somewhat succseful but time consuming and impractical with the emergence of sat imagry and recon from planes.

Edit: You can read about it in the book "Hurricane Watch" by Bob sheets Former dir. of NHC and Jack Williams and excuse my spelling lol there was also expirementations with hyrophones to track hurricanes same book.

Edited by hurricane_run (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:29 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Water Vapor Loop [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #40525 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:18 AM

Looks like he is about to shift gears. Convective band on northern side building up quickly.
Barely visible at 0600Z and now extends from near Homestead to near Ft Myers and then SSW halfway to the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: danielw]
      #40526 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:23 AM

now we will see if it will restrengthen or not

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40527 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 AM

well you guys keep up the great work...and im heading to bed myself....good night and hopefully i wont be evacuated when i wake up in themorning....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: FlaMommy]
      #40528 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:36 AM

thanks. 72mph gust at key west. and good night.

HR out (this time for real)


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #40529 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 AM

Quote:

Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.

I always view these kinds of articles with a great deal of skepticism.

-- oops, this was in reply to adogg76, not daniel!




The peer review process has become flawed. Advances in science require a willingness to "think outside the box" which the peer review process works against. Science also requires a skeptical attitude even to accepted ideas. the natural human tendency is to be overly skeptical of new ideas and too accepting of established ones. In climatology this tendency has resulted in climatologists wasting time talking about magical greenhouse gases and too little time on the real ways humans may be affecting climate including changing land use.

In this particular article it is very likeily that hurricanes produce sufficient force to impact the earth's crust.

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #40530 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 AM

Quote:

Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.





News sources are not peer reviewed journals, but rather use articles in peer reviewed journals as basis for their articles.... Perhaps this one did not, as I don't recognize the .org link that shows the data, but frequently CNN/AP/whatever articles cite research published in Journal of Geophysical Research, etc. The goal is to explain the cutting edge research in layman's terms... sometimes this does mean a little of the science is incorrect, but generally, it works out for the best.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40531 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 AM

Motion is again appearing to have a more westerly component than straight NW...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: Terra]
      #40532 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:52 AM

yeh, it is....
right now, it looks like its moving due west


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #40533 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:54 AM

I know no one want to hear this but has anyone seen on the models where they are picking up on another one behind Dennis 4 1/2 to 5 days out?

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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #40534 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 AM

yes....unfortunately. heh

do they have a track for it yet?

Edited by EaglezFan42 (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:58 AM)


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
Indecisive Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40535 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 AM

The upper-level high pressure ridge has weakened over Florida and the eastern Gulf, while a strong upper-level disturbance is diving into eastern Texas. This will help to maintain a weakness in the upper-level wind flow over the central Gulf, and Dennis will turn northward ahead of this weakness. If the Atlantic high pressure ridge fails to build farther west, Dennis could track close to the west coast of Florida Saturday. If the upper-level high pressure ridge builds stronger to the west, then Dennis will be diverted more toward Louisiana. We should know soon what Dennis will do.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Indecisive Dennis [Re: LadyStorm]
      #40536 - Sat Jul 09 2005 04:00 AM

so does that mean if the high pressure weakens, a turn to the NE or E?

And where did you find that info?

Edited by EaglezFan42 (Sat Jul 09 2005 04:01 AM)


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
Re: Water Vapor Loop [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #40537 - Sat Jul 09 2005 04:01 AM

Quote:

I know no one want to hear this but has anyone seen on the models where they are picking up on another one behind Dennis 4 1/2 to 5 days out?



Yep..... A tropical wave located along 43 west is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Another tropical wave along 62 west, south of 20 north is moving west at about 6 degrees per day. Finally we have a wave along 28 west south of 18 north also moving west at 6 degrees longitude per day. We continue to see less shear than normal through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic. This combined with warmer than normal water temperatures and lower than normal average surface pressures could certainly help any of these tropical waves to develop but probably not within the next couple of days.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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