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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #40839 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:05 PM

New blog post -- sorry about the delay!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
New Tornado Watch to 11pm EDT [Re: Rasvar]
      #40840 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:06 PM

Code:

FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO DIXIE
GILCHRIST GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAKE LEE LEVY
MANATEE MARION MONROE
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER SUWANNEE
TAYLOR WAKULLA





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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but [Re: Jamiewx]
      #40842 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:07 PM

Yep, those are all western counties and the Big Bend area..

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:08 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #40843 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:07 PM

So....still think it's going to hit South Fla, as you've been saying the last three days?????? I think you guys need to pay more attention to the NHC. I know i do and if they say the ridge isn't going to weaken enough, then i am with them. All week you guys have been saying the ridge was going to weaken and Dennis would pull a "charley" and hit South Fla. It's a good thing you are not real mets because all of South Fla would evac'd and the panhandle and AL, MS, would be sitting ducks.

Please keep any concerns with one person's forecast to a private message in the future. We have already been through this debate on the boards over the past two days, and it does not need to be rehashed. Let's focus on where the storm is going, okay? -- Clark

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:46 PM)


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40844 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:09 PM

clark, sats show it eating at the trough and winning the battle aleady by continuing nw flow?

weatherunderground models all coming together at ms/al coastline

Edited by jr928 (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:10 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40847 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 PM

Well I have been keeping track and since 8am this morning the hurricane has moved more north than west. So I think it is looking like the MS Gulf Coast won't get much of anything, thank goodness.

Although the last coordinates (3pm eastern time) showed more of a westward movement, which is a little confusing. Every time it wobbles a bit I see a flurry of posting and questions. However over time the movement seems to be more constant.

My brother was supposed to be off tomorrow but of course the sheriff's office called him in (starting at 2am tomorrow, no kidding). He just called me after they finished boarding up their house in Pascagoula (he doesn't live that far from the beach).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40848 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 PM

Look, i don't mean any disrespect to any of you, but i am a total novice when it comes to hurricanes and steering currents. All this week you've had me worrying and i know this is just a hobby kind of thing for everyone here, but some of you have been pretty serious about the ridge causing Dennis to turn into the west cost of fla. Someone like me will go to any and all sites to try and get a better understanding of the weather situation, but i have to say that you guys have been way off with this one.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40849 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:15 PM

No doubt this thing will strenghten in my mind......any guesses to how high they will go?

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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40850 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:16 PM

exactly, you should watch the weather to the west more than the east, once it is tracking west the westerly weather will impact most and that low is not coming east as far as they think. the models have picked it up and that's why the models say ms/al impact. watch NHC this afternoon around 6 or the 10pm, they'll go more west too. maybe?

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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #40852 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:20 PM

Clark, Thank you for the update...it does make more sense then some of the comments that have been made in the past 12 hours. I really hope that people will settle down as the season has only just begun.

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: firestar_1]
      #40853 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:20 PM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

shows biloxi direct hit with new orleans getting a good scare with any wobble


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: jr928]
      #40854 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:21 PM

Don't forget, do not concentrate on the center line. This burns a lot of people and is why the NHC considered elimnating it completely this year. One of the reasons they didn't is because they know someone else would just draw a line, so they, rightfully so, would prefer it to be one they made. Pay attention to the cone. Especially if you are within 100 miles either side of that line on the Northern Gulf Coast. All it takes is a wobble left or right to mean the difference between 50 MPH winds and 100 MPH winds. If you are on the Northern Gulf coast and in a warned area, especially those within the forecast cone, you should prepare as if the line is drawn at you. That is really the only safe way to do it.

--------------------
Jim


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40857 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:26 PM

Quote:

Look, i don't mean any disrespect to any of you, but i am a total novice when it comes to hurricanes and steering currents. All this week you've had me worrying and i know this is just a hobby kind of thing for everyone here, but some of you have been pretty serious about the ridge causing Dennis to turn into the west cost of fla. Someone like me will go to any and all sites to try and get a better understanding of the weather situation, but i have to say that you guys have been way off with this one.




This really should be moved off, but who was saying south florida other than fllaud? I gave plenty of reasons why South Florida wasn't likely. I tried to make the point clear that the most likely spot was the western panhandle for a while. With the cone being in the rest of Florida. The NHC's doing a good job with this storm. I'm not a met either, but I think that comment is wrongly directed. The very last line on every page here is the most important.

Anyway, Jason Kelley's station will be streaming video tonight, I posted a link on the main article.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
SOUTH FLORIDA CHECK IN [Re: MikeC]
      #40858 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:30 PM

southern miami dade county here. Well thank God this wasn't a direct hit... because we had no power last night for about 8 hours, trees and signs are down... its still very windy and rainy.... and i don't think NHC and the weather folks did a good job of preparing us for what to expect even if it wasn't a direct hit.

my two cents

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: MikeC]
      #40859 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:30 PM

For conch republic bashing......With all due respect, every person on this site who knows what they are talking about has called this storm right so far. If you spend enough time on here you learn who knows what they are talking about and who really doesn't. Spend time learning as much as you can about these storms and then the people who make uneducated predictions will not get you upset or worried.

Edited by richisurfs (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: SOUTH FLORIDA CHECK IN [Re: trinibaje]
      #40860 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 PM

That was the job of the local forecasters. NHC's job is to predict the path of the storm. Tornado watches were up for the area. That is usually a sign that you need to be prepared for some rough weather. Not sure how anyone could have expected otherwise down there.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:33 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: MikeC]
      #40861 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:32 PM

The eye of the storm is following the NHC forecast plots perfectly. If they were here I would buy them a beer. I just drove from Navarre to Gulf Breeze (east of Pensacola)..I can't believe how prepared everyone is. Even the Lowes and Walmart are closed. Very few vehicles on the road and all the boards are up. Pensacola is prepared!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: pcola]
      #40862 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:35 PM

I have bashed NHC in the past when I thought they were wrong. I have to give them very high kudos for their performance so far with Dennis. The verification errors have been about as small as I have ever seen. This is about as close to a perfect track forecast that I think is possible right now.

--------------------
Jim


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: MikeC]
      #40863 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:36 PM

Thanks for the post Mike C. You couldn`t have said it better......Weatherchef

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40864 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM

It may slide west a little but remember that the synoptic reasoning of a slightly more Eastern impact is sound based on the current environment. Tropical Systems tend to want to go North and East when approaching from the SE GOM. I do not know if this due to the Jetstream, Hadley Cell effect or what, but it is more usual then unusual.

Of course, if she hits West of Pascagula, I will gladly apologize. I for one would prefer it dissipate, but that is not an option anyone has.

No one is taking disrespect damejune2 about your comments but this is a forum for people to discuss Tropical Weather and we all post what we think, and sometimes what we feel. You will notice disclaimers everywhere that you should look to the NHC for official forecast. By the same token, we have Mets here and some very knowlegeable folks who make their opinions too, professional opinions based on knowledge and experience. I think you will learn more then you think if you look at the info posted along with the forecast of the NHC.

My opinion of course.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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