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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40865 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM

I am new here also but I do spend many hours here reading and to my knowledge only one person said south florida would be hit and that was ftlaubob. Everyone else has been right on

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: Rasvar]
      #40866 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 PM

Agreed about the NHC. They get creamed every Hurricane season, but they have been very sound with Dennis. Cheers to them!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40867 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:39 PM

Quote:

yep and the pressure is still falling steadly




Prolly a dumb question, but why is it that both the other two times that the pressure has dropped to 962 the winds were at 110 mph and they are only at 100 mph now with the same pressure ??


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: stormchazer]
      #40868 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 PM

I second that. I have found the info here to be very helpful and there are many knowledgable folks here but I also look to the experts at NHC and watch the weather updates on tv. Thank you all for the info keep up the great work

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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but [Re: mbfly]
      #40869 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 PM

This is where Water Temperature becomes a very serious issue in this storm. If the Water is above 78 dgrees, then there is a good chnace thatb this storm will continue to intensify.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but [Re: mbfly]
      #40870 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 PM

Wind does not ramp up immediately with the drop in pressure. There is a lag between the events quite often. There is not a direct correlation to a certain pressure and wind speed, either. There are other structural impacts that can cause a storm to have different wind speeds at the same pressure.

--------------------
Jim


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Kudos to NHC! [Re: Rasvar]
      #40871 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 PM

I agree - they've had this track pretty darn close except for the western jog over cuba (who could have predicted that?) and the consequent dramatic weakening. There seems to be alot of wishcasting by some and most of use can due w/o the "gut feeling" remarks. yes, I know some us our anxious, but let's try to educate ourselves & everyone else.

--------------------
RJB


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: richisurfs]
      #40872 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 PM

I could not have said that better myself...I have learned that while you can not fool mother nature....she just loves messing with us.... I made sure my family was ready for Charlie and had my office ready starting on Wednesday before he hit...all we can really do to be safe is be prepared and have our plans in place. The NHC will provide us with the best information they can...this forum allows those of us who want to learn more to read and try and understand what and why things are happening from people who know alot more than at least I do. It does get tiring listening to ppl basking others and or demanding exact pin point calls every other minute.
As always I am very thankful to the people that are helping the rest of us to learn and understand...

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40873 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 PM

damejune2, that is absolutely untrue. There has been one person -- one, not a professional meteorogist -- who had predicted a landfall in S. Florida, like Charley. Everyone else here -- including all of the professional mets who post here -- has been targeting the Florida Panhandle, with varying guesses as to where along the Panhandle. So far, so good. Please remember that this is a site run by hobbiests and enthusiasts and is not meant to take the place of the NHC.

Please refrain from blanket statements like that, as it only adds to the confusion on the board. People are already harried enough as it is, and making an assertation like that does not help. If you have a question with the forecasts or thinking that any of us posts, such as your previous comments, please send us a private message. Thanks.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: drcrazibob]
      #40874 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:47 PM

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




It's just the well-written, thoughtful discussions that made some people think he was a she, I guess...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Sat Jul 09 2005 03:48 PM)


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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Re: Winds still 100MPH, but [Re: mbfly]
      #40875 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:48 PM

Local weatherman said Mobile, AL has alread gotten 2+ inches of rain today with what they are calling a feeder band. It's only going to get worse.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: Terra]
      #40876 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:49 PM

OK ok already, I'm sorry... my mistake... I already said I was wrong. it's a done deal. It's a he!!!!!!!

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
CFHC POSTER BASHING [Re: damejune2]
      #40877 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:51 PM

First of all, let me explain to you that this is a forum for WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS, not WEATHER EXPERTS...and we have them here, too. Secondly, I will direct you to this part of the 11:00AM discussion in which they address what you said they did NOT SAY earlier in the week. Actually, they DID say it, but the models did not pick up on it:

Quote:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE Dennis TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.




Secondly, they shifted the track slightly to the EAST at 11:00AM, maybe by a hair, but with landfall closer to Pensacola, FL rather than to the MS/AL line.

Thirdly, they have continued to mention in each updated advisory SINCE 11:00AM that the storm is initially moving towards the NW with a gradual turn to the NNW from Saturday night into Sunday. That would rule out another poster's comments that they meant the turn would be up in TN, since the storm is to make landfall tomorrow. I also would think that if the models have now picked up on this trough and the ridge axis shifting more northward, then they will AGAIN adjust the track slightly to the EAST, bringing landfall somewhere in between Pensacola and Panama City Beach.
Lastly, I will address the rudeness of your post This is a site where people are allowed to air their thoughts (I'll admit some overdo it a little too often ). When a storm is approaching, we look at all kinds of scenarios. We happened to look at what we thought was the trough digging deeper down, which would push the storm closer to S. Florida. It did not happen in time, but until it passed the lat/lon of ANY part of S. Florida (and I believe the Keys would be considered S. Florida, don't you?) no one really knew what it was going to do. Now, I haven't seen a single post on here since this morning saying that it was still going to hit S. Florida.
As a longtime poster and member, I would kindly ask you to refrain from bashing others who simply like weather as a hobby. Some of us are better at it than others, but that doesn't mean we can't come here.
Thank you in advance.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #40878 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:53 PM

Quote:

I am new here also but I do spend many hours here reading and to my knowledge only one person said south florida would be hit and that was ftlaubob. Everyone else has been right on




And, notice he hasn't been around lately.... After all of those posts the other day.....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: Terra]
      #40879 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I thought everyone discovered NHC's Stewart was a "she" and not a "he" last year?




It's just the well-written, thoughtful discussions that made some people think he was a she, I guess...




Very good one!!!!!!

Now back to Dennis....Clark...can you help me with this? I am currently looking at the western alt water vapor images and I can see the high appears to be pushing back west from both the west and south west....this appears to be pushing Dennis is a more north west motion....but just to the north west of Dennis I can see to frontal clouds being taken to the north east direction....is this about the area and direction that the turn may happen? Thank you...

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 120
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40880 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:56 PM

I couldnt agree more Colleen. Thank you for stating that.

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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40881 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:56 PM

The NHC forcast maps always connect the dots with straight lines, but the path is curved. I know we are not supposed to follow the line, but I can't help it. Since the path is more likely to be curving from NW to NNW then N, should you put some bend in the line?

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: CFHC POSTER BASHING [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40882 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 PM

Thank you Colleen A. I`ve been waiting for all the CFHC veterns to tell it like it is. I enjoy this forum. In the time I`ve been a member, I`ve learned more than I can imagine.......Back to the tropics......Weatherchef

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: Terra]
      #40883 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:57 PM

the horse is dead.....move on.

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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA 28.47N 81.27W
Re: Conch Republic Bashing [Re: damejune2]
      #40884 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:58 PM

The fact that the Eye didn't hit So Florida Direct doesn't negate the facts that there is severe and ongoing damage from Dennis. My local TV has been showing damages all day in these areas from this storm and who cares that the eye didn't hit straight on to So Florida, only goes to prove "THE FACT THAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK BEYOND THE CONE".

--------------------
....................
28.5N 81.2W


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