tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
I checked, it says "up to 230 miles". Last advisory said 175 miles, so you're on the border on maybe getting em as you're about 175-200 miles out.
11pm news here in Tampa just said we were approx 171 miles from the eye right now, so pretty close to the border, but it will depend on whether it goes more NNW or NW.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like , so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind. 
charley was pretty small, but strong in the center. if a hurricane is moving due north being west of the storm the winds are the lightest as the circulation is going the opposite direction of the forward speed. check this to compare sizes.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/fracharivan.gif
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#dennis
This site has a nice wind speed graphic
Pretty helpful
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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11pm news here in Tampa just said we were approx 171 miles from the eye right now, so pretty close to the border, but it will depend on whether it goes more NNW or NW.
OK. i was guesstimatiing off of this.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/dennis_22b.gif
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
To me, a novice, this storm [center] looks tight and compact like , so why would the TS winds extend out to 230mi.? passed about 30/40 miles to the east of me and we barely got a whisp of wind.
charley was pretty small, but strong in the center. if a hurricane is moving due north being west of the storm the winds are the lightest as the circulation is going the opposite direction of the forward speed. check this to compare sizes.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/fracharivan.gif
Yes, was a very compact storm. The area of severe damage at Punta Gorda was only about 15-20 miles in total width.
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Michael
PWS
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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To those of you who end up getting the worst of it:
I saw my first caravan of electric bucket trucks heading out of Polk county (and we got three eye's of the storm last year). You'll be amazed that the speed at which both the state and federal govenments will get in the basics (food, water etc) in to you.
If you're in the path, don't dispair, get away from the coast, and get as much gasoline as you can get your hands on, right now.
Good luck all.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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NHC map now shows Alabama landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W+gif/024557W_sm.gif
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 03:49 AM)
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erikakane2010
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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Westward shift from the previous track over Escambia Bay, FL. I still think Gulfport/Biloxi or Pascagoula area......trough not looking as aggessive as it did yesterday.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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I'll say Mobile Bay. High tide is about 3-4PM local time.....ouch!
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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probably...It's inland from Dauphin Island about 15 miles...up Mobile Bay...however...it's critical which side of the Bay comes in from...if it indeed hits Mobile...I'm on the west side, and up the wide part of Dog River about 1/2 mile....
worst case scenario is a 20 ft surge...and of course 120 mph winds or so...ought pretty much wipe it out...
I'm insured...so....at least that's a good thing...
still think a cat 5 is probable...still do....I think it's a category four right now....
take care ya'll...we'll see.....I'm hunkered down and hoping it doesn't turn into an Andrew...however...its a tight little storm.....in the center...and it concerns me.....looks like Andrew did...
a buzz saw
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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erikakane -- I would tend to disagree. The ridge is backing slowly to the east and the trough is actually a bit further south (and now east) than it was earlier today. In my view, Mississippi is in the clear for a direct landfall; it's Alabama and eastward now. Obviously, the whole area is going to see something from ...how much of something depends on a precise track.
I've got to turn in for the day. Everyone, stay safe and get some rest: it's going to be a long day tomorrow.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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i see ya Rick.....near Mann? good luck bud. be safe.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Rick, I hope not!
940mb
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10
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erikakane2010
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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Rick, you might be on Storm Stories soon....but hopefully with happy ending. BE SAFE!! GOOD LUCK!!!
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here is the latest Vortex Message from Recon:
Quote:
Storm Name: (04L)
Mission Number: 15
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 22
Time: 03:29:30Z
Latitude: 26.7°N
Longitude: 85.4°W
Location: 195 mi WSW of Tampa, Florida
Minimum height at 700 mb 2566 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (146°) @ 151 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi ENE (58°)
Sea level pressure: 940 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 10072 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 66°F at 10000 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 12 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10 Z
At 11:27, recon reports central pressure is down to 940 mb (27.76) with flight level winds of 131 knots. This equates to a surface wind of 135mph.....looks like is once again a Category 4 hurricane! 
--Lou
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CategoryFive
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: On Louisiana's vanishing coast
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Does anyone have links to radio stations that may be broadcasting from the affected areas....or perhaps an all encompassing site with numerous links?
Thanks in advance from a long time lurker and new poster. 
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USC can't three peat...they didn't win it all in 2003 !!
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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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Quote:
Rick, I hope not!
940mb
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10
Where is the latest recon reading from? what site?
131 kt = 150 mph
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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As if weren't enough, we have a new invest for the wave in the central atlantic...looks like this one may develop too! Are we going to see Emily before the second week of July?? Meteorologist Tom Terry on WFTV Channel 9 in Orlando also pointed out yet another healthy wave pulling off of Africa that he feels might be future trouble
--Lou
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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940 mb and 135 mph SL winds already? Yikes!
When was the last big hit for Mobile? I know was close, but was Camille the last direct hit? Anybody got a link for historical Camille info?
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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That latest recon came from the weather channel just before midnight.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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