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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon
      #41350 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:23 AM

3:45pm EDT
Dennis has made landfall between Pensacola Beach and Nvarre Beach at 2:25 PM CDT (3:25EDT) as a Category 3 hurricane wind maximum sustained winds of 120mph.


3pm
Recon reports the pressure in the storm has risen to 943mb, signifying some weakening just before landfall as the storm moves onshore. Despite that, the storm should still come ashore with winds near 120mph, slightly higher than with Ivan...but not nearly as bad as it could have been or was predicted. Landfall looks to occur within the next hour near Navarre Beach/Escambia Bay, sparing Mobile once again but devestating the Pensacola/Navarre/Ft. Walton Beach area. More from Thomas Giella in the met blogs below and continual updates on the news talkback & in the chat room.

11:00AM


Dennis' strengthening phase has stopped, now it probably will remain a category 4, or hopefully stay over the cooler water long enough to be a strong cat 3. Still stronger than Ivan at landfall. Landfall will be closer to Pensacola in the mid afternoon.

Hurricane force winds may be felt 150-200 miles inland where it travels through alabama. And gusty conditions even further inland where it tracks. It looks like it will stall out in the Ohio River valley and be a potential flood event there.

9:30AM
Dennis has dropped to 930mb, and holding its strength as a strong category 4 system. It has moved more to the north in the last few bits, but expected to jog west a bit later. However, at this moment it's nitpicking. Folks at and directly east of the landfall will see the worst surge. Hurricane force winds may go inland 150-200 miles.



Some of the image servers on are image server network have gone down, and we are adjusting around that now. The mobile cam will be up as long as we can run it. Bandwidth costs are going to be astronomical this month, donations are appreciated (see link to left) Also we are looking for a colocation facility for our primary server in the Southeast, looking for reasonable rates in the off season, and reasonalbe with spikes such as during hurricane events. Also those with hosting space and the ability to assign IPs to their hosts for our image server mirror network are requested. Anyone who helps will be featured on the bottom of the page.

7:17AM
Overnight Dennis has strengthened into a 145mph hurricane with a pressure of 931mb, less than what Charley was at landfall, and the strongest Hurricane potentially to make landfall in the Gulf in 36 years and the strongest in this area ever recorded, stronger than both Frederick and Ivan.



Today it will make landfall, during the Afternoon, leaving people in the dark overnight to get the back side of the hurricane. For those in the forecasted track path, best of luck and God bless you all.

Also, the tropical wave in the Atlantic is looking to develop soon, although there is no real way to tell yet if it'll be a player or a fish spinner at the moment.

1:30AM
Dennis is back to Category 4 now, with a pressure of 937mb, 1mb less than when it was south of Cuba, so even more strengthening is possible.

Original Update
According to Recon, Dennis is at or near Category 4 Hurricane Strength once again. It's outflow and central dense overcast near the center look very healthy for a hurricane. Hopefully it will peak soon.



The track now takes in slightly west of Pensacola, nearly where Ivan crossed. Deviation to the left or right means a great deal for storm surge behavior, which will likely be more extreme than Ivan, with 12-16 possibly 20 feet of storm surge. Winds will also be an issue, even quite a ways inland. The most extreme of the winds is in a relatively small area around the center of the storm.



The storm is forecast to make landfall during the afternoon tomorrow now. Folks along the area are advised to get some sleep now before the brunt start to arrive n the morning.

The Mobile cam is recording now, the link is below. More will come tomorrow.

The chat link on the left is open throughout the event.

Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Eglin AFB Radar

Dennis
MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images
Google Map Plot of Dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis


98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam - Live Video Stream from Mark's HIRT Tahoe HIRT Tower On the coast in Perdido Key: Conditions and Webcam

Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock - Jeff Flock Live Stream!
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Weathervine.com Storm Chasing
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM
Pensacola Beach Cam 2
Panama City/Destin webcams

WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL .

Police Scanner Streams
Mobile Police - Mobile, AL

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41366 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:37 AM

Good luck everyone. At least this will be the last "Dennis" ever.

Edited by Doombot! (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:44 AM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: Doombot!]
      #41372 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Sleep will be very difficult.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41374 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Man! Pensicola bridge will be like a pancake again.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Doombot!]
      #41375 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:42 AM

Quote:

I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.




Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad.
You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41376 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:43 AM

Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition....

Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula....

(sorry about the repost but I wanted teal and jav to get the message)


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41378 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:47 AM

Well One thing I think we can rule out is that this storm will be a CAT 5.

I dont see that much strenghting where winds will be up to 156.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41379 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west.

Listen I have to leave my friend's house and go home but I'll come back on in a half hour and maybe I can give you the phone numbers of my mom and other brother in Moss Point. I wonder if they should consider evac'ing now. By 6 or 7 am the winds will be too high to leave.

My brother with the Sheriff's dept will be on duty starting at 2am this morning until it is over...his wife will be dispatching. Neither of them will be home, they have to stay and work. I don't know if I'll be able to get hold of him because he'll be pretty busy.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41380 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....

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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41381 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:49 AM

We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone!

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
as strong as IVAN [Re: Frank P]
      #41383 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:51 AM

small eye....15 nautical miles wide...

Ivan devastated Pensacola....just tore it up....

a cat 5....don't even wanna think about it..


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
ivan vs Dennis [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #41384 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

Ivan came in from the west to east

Dennis is coming in from east to west....

no right hook to spare us this time


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41385 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

Quote:

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....




Frank, I couldn't help but notice that. I wish it were different for everyone. Be ready.

I'm not ruling out hazardous conditions at daybreak. We just clouded over here in Hattiesburg. About 30 minutes ago.

Good luck to all. I'll see all of you in the morning.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41387 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:58 AM

NO Frank..no northerly component...12 miles east of Pensacola in Gulf Breeze...please no north component!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41388 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 AM

Good night guys. I'm praying for everyone on the Gulf Coast.
Please make your preparations and stay safe.
I said in a previous thread and I'll repeat it here.

Things can be replaced, your human life can not be replaced.
Make sure you are in a secure place to ride this one out.

See you on the other side.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41389 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

Dennis a Cat 4 again as of 1AM.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41390 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

pcola, I feel your pain, you guys have gone through more than most should ever have to deal with, its going to go where it wants... we all watch in amazement, and times like this, fear.... what ever happens, I just want to be on that west side.... even at its present track, if it holds, you guys will take a beating in the NE quad... good luck to you and all who will face this beast tomorrow.....

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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #41391 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:04 AM

1m EDT update - 135 MPH winds - CAT 4

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #41392 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:05 AM

Dennis now Cat 4...135mph winds

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
937 mb! [Re: Doombot!]
      #41393 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:06 AM

The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again.....

This is becoming a true nightmare....

--Lou


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