Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I heard back from my brother in Pascagoula MS who just went on duty (Sherrif's Dept) at 2am for the storm. I wanted to stay up to let him know all the news about the new track and intensity.
He'll be on duty probably at least through Mon am with no relief.
He said it's already starting to get windy there.
One of the things he said was that many gas stations in Pascagoula are out of gas. I also heard this was a problem eariler with folks trying to get out of Gulf Shores AL area and that the civil defense folks were trying to get some gas down there. Scary.
I also heard not very many evacuated. My brother said actually that a mandatory evac was issued Friday evening along with a curfew but Kissy said she hadn't heard that. I don't think it got out to everyone, somehow. At the time there was nothing on the TV except Pensacola, FL, etc. with a storm track to hit there, so I don't think many in MS thought an evac was necessary.
I also heard not all evacuated from MOB, I think there are around a half million people and I don't think it would have been possible to evac everyone. Actually the gulf coast is so populated that is the case pretty much everywhere.
Well I'll get a little sleep and catch you all tomorrow.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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3am forcast/advisory update is out.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/100240.shtml
Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Jul 10 2005 03:08 AM)
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Nate
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
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145 MPH winds... HOLY SMOKES!!!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yes and the pressure dropped an additional 3mb to 934...it may still be strengthening.
OK am really going to go to sleep now - had intended to until I realized the 3am advisory would be out.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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site is experiencing some problems. not sure what's up, but it appears to be cosmetic only. as long as we can all keep communicating, everything's o.k. if not peachy.
the latest public advisory says the winds are 145mph in the text body and then concludes that they're 140mph. minor inconsistency when you think about it... the winds are just really freakin' strong. the eye hitting just west of either mobile or pensacola are the worse case scenarios i can see here. not to take anything away from pascagoula or biloxi... but the cities on the large bays are at a higher risk for surge, and have more property that can be affected (think most people will get out of dodge).
lets just hope an eyewall replacement cycle spins down before it comes ashore tomorrow. lili went from 4 down to 2 in about 12 hrs... it can happen. i don't see anything quite that dramatic happening here.. but still think it can drop to 3 before coming ashore. no way to be certain, but i think is just about done strengthening... the waters it's over shouldn't support much more intensification. don't see the makings of an yet, unfortunately. there's still time.
HF 0818z10july
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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They fix the typo..it's officaly 145MPH. There has been alot of funny little typos this storm. They called , "Danny" a couple of releases ago.
On the site problems, it look like it was cause by alot of refresh at the same time tonight that knocked the page into print mode.
Anyway, I hope everyone who wakes up tomorrow morning around 6AM know that if they are going WILL GO. This isn't the time to play "Stay or Go". Time is up and your plywood house isn't safe anymore.  
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Small light bulbs - 7 1/2 watts; with common type screw-in bases can be used after you shut everything else down in an orderly fashion. My APC 1400 backup gives me power for such a small load almost indefinitely. A weather radio from "The Shack" uses only 5W and so do many portable radios. My thoughts and prayers, from the "Gold Coast", go out to all. Even down here, my power was out 2-3 times starting a little before 11PM Friday night(4 hour outage!). FPL is still trimming trees according to usual schedule and didn't expect such an early onset of this tropical season. Who did? If the activity continues at this rate, the predictions of Dr. Gray and his Colorado associates my be more Pollyannaish than Cassandra like. I'm sure that I'll get mine before this dreadful season ends.
As we used to say in Brooklyn; "Wait 'til next year!"
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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7:57 Zulu
932 MB
8 mile circular eye...
27.36N 86.00W
Good luck people
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Nice breeze here in Mobile NNE@11 G21.
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geekicane
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
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What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?
It really depends on the relative pressures around the storm... but as a general rule of thumb, 925ish would have a shot at having cat 5 winds....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
I use that chart as a method of rule of thumb pressures vs wind velocity...
-Mark
(IANAM, so what I say is not to be taken as anything more than an enthusiast)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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geekicane
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
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Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?
I wouldn't say they're 'out to sea', Hurricane intensity is one of the most difficult things to project, and really, they've warned people for a while that this storm was not going to be nice. But as far as intensity goes, The pressure has to start levelling off,
5am sat:972mb
11am sat: 967mb
5pm sat: 955mb
11pm sat: 941mb
5am sun: 932mb
40mb drop in 24 hours
I keep saying, 'it can't keep strengthening' but at this point, it's making it's own environment, the only thing that will slow it down in the next 12 hours are and SSTs. It's moving to fast to really upwell too much water, and it's still a very small storm. 145mph winds at the 4am cdt advisory...
take this for what it's worth and I'm gritting my teeth as I say this, peak at 150, landfall at 140, either way, it's going to be very unfun for anyone in the path.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Talassee
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
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Has anyone seen the 5AM Discussion? It's listed on their main page, but when you open it up, it is last night's discussion....
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Renee
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Hurricane Discussion Number 24
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 10, 2005
Data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
winds in have increased to near 125 kt. This is based on
maximum 700 mb flight level winds of 139 and 140 kt from a couple
of passes through the northeast eyewall. may undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall...which usually results
in some fluctuations in intensity. Water vapor imagery does not
suggest any environmental mid- to upper-level features that could
weaken the hurricane before landfall... however the waters over the
northeast Gulf coastal areas are of somewhat lower oceanic heat
content...which should limit significant additional strengthening.
Dennis is forecast to make landfall as a category four hurricane.
Track forecast reasoning is basically the same as before. The
hurricane is now moving north-northwetward in the steering flow
between a mid-level high to its east and a mid-level trough near
the northwest Gulf Coast. This general motion should continue
through landfall. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and is quite close to the dynamical model consensus
and to the Florida State University superensemble track.
Predicted storm surge heights have been adjusted upward due to the
increased intensity of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/0900z 27.8n 86.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w 20 kt...remnant low
$$
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?
Category is determined by the Maximum Sustained wind.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 4 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC
ADVISORY TRACK...WITH A NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE MOBILE/PENSACOLA
AREA. A MAJOR LANDFALLING HURRICANE APPEARS IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH
OVERNIGHT. IF DOES NOT WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS GOING
TO BE A VERY LIFE-THREATENING...EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT. CATEGORY 4
HURRICANES PRODUCE MAJOR DAMAGE TO ALL STRUCTURES. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE National Hurricane Center.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MOB/AFDMOB.0507101045
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Looks to have jogged much more northerly over the past few hours. While this wouldn't have meant much yesterday, it is huge today. I still look for a landfall east of Pcola.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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For the first time in days I have to say that the track may be off.. Radar here shows on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it. This always seems to happen to storms at the northern gulf coast. Being in Pcola, a landfall east may be our saving grace. TV video already shows waves over the Pensacola fishing pier..9 hours before landfall. I wish nobody had to endure this but it would make me brearhe easier if this trend continues. They have already closed the I-10 bridge...(the one they fixed after )
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest Recon has pressure down 1mb to 931mb.
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